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Fareed's take: US strikes on Iran might make the world less safe

Fareed's take: US strikes on Iran might make the world less safe

CNN4 days ago
The only way to ensure Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon is through diplomacy, Fareed says. While America's attacks on Iranian nuclear sites were impactful, they won't keep Iran from a weapon in the long run — and they undermine the rules-based international order.

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What Job And Labor Market Numbers Say About The Economy
What Job And Labor Market Numbers Say About The Economy

Forbes

time21 minutes ago

  • Forbes

What Job And Labor Market Numbers Say About The Economy

FILE - Katy Frank, a former computer scientist at the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab, ... More who lost her job Thursday, protests outside the John D. Dingell Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Detroit, Friday, Feb. 28, 2025. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File) On one hand, there were some unexpectedly good labor market numbers in June. However, there were other mixed results, raising questions of where the economy might be going overall. The Overall View The 147,000 net new jobs in June reported on Thursday were 33.6% higher than the Dow Jones median prediction of 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% — the expectation was 4.3%. Job openings were 7.8 million, 6.8% higher than the projected 7.3 million. Also, the initial jobless claims report came in at 233,000, about 3% lower than the projected 240,000. Then again, the ADP employment report showed a net cut of 33,000 jobs rather than the projected gain of 100,000. That left multiple economic and investment professionals wondering whether it was a sign of a coming bad report. Also wage growth slowed from 3.8% year-over-year in May and an expected 3.9% in June to 3.7%. According to ADP, private payrolls growth averaged 19,000 in the second quarter of 2025, down from 139,000 in the first quarter and 144,000 in all of 2024. 'June's job losses were concentrated in white collar industries,' Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote in an emailed note. 'Tariffs, other policy uncertainty, and the Israel-Iran war weighed on private hiring and pay growth last month. Details Are Telling The specifics of job changes add nuance to the overall numbers. Unemployment rates for adult women and whites, both at 3.6%, decreased. The rates for adult men (3.9%), teenagers (14.4%), Asians (3.5%), and Hispanics (4.8%) changed little or not at all from May to June. And yet, unemployment for blacks increased to 6.8%. The number of long-term unemployed, who have been jobless for at least 27 weeks), grew by 190,000 to 1.6 million. They were 23.3% of all unemployed people. Government employment was up by 73,000 in June, with state government employment up by 47,000 (40,000 of that being in education). Federal job losses were another 7,000, the total loss of jobs being 69,000 after a January peak. That seems likely to be a result of Trump administration strategies. Healthcare employment was up by 39,000 in June, even as other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services were relatively flat. 'While signs of deceleration persist, today's report highlights a labor market that is proving more resilient than anticipated,' wrote ManpowerGroup President and Chief Strategy Officer Becky Frankiewicz in an emailed note. 'The top-line numbers look positive, but our real-time data reveals underlying shifts. June marked the weakest hiring month of the year, with new postings down 7% month-over-month and 2% year-over-year. Open postings fell 8% from May.' More Information The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published a table called 'Labor Market Outcomes of College Graduates by Major,' as I've previously written. It shows majors, unemployment rates, underemployment rates, median wages for both early career and mid-career, and share of college graduates who went on for a graduate degree. Some of the majors with the highest unemployment were in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields, with 2023 data paired with a roughly 3.8% overall unemployment rate. Physics (7.8%), computer engineering (7.5%), computer science (6.1%), chemistry (6.1%), and information systems and management (5.6%) all saw higher unemployment rates. In May, Reuters reported that Microsoft was laying off thousands, and the cuts were not performance-related. The results of Q1 were $25.8 billion in net income, up 18% year-over-year, and strong demand for AI services. CEO Satya Nadella said that AI systems are writing 20% to 30% of Microsoft code, according to TechCrunch. In April, Microsoft chief technology officer Kevin Scott reportedly said in an earnings call that 95% of its code will be AI-generated by 2030, or five years from now. This isn't a prediction of disaster, and yet there is unsettling data, like portents of a coming storm. The next few months should start to make things clearer.

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