Baidu appoints Haijian He as CFO
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Mint
25 minutes ago
- Mint
How Trump's tariffs could reorder global trade—and make Europe a winner
Europe could be at center stage as the Trump administration's tariffs upend the global trading system, slashing Chinese imports to the U.S., a report from the McKinsey Global Institute finds. President Trump's aggressive trade policy has sparked concerns about a recession and a painful unwinding of the globalization of recent decades that had expanded profit margins and kept prices low. A detailed look at trade flows by McKinsey offers a window into potential pain points—and how trade could be rearranged. Companies have been gripped by trade uncertainty since the Trump administration tried to reshape the trading system, announcing a blitz of tariffs against nearly 200 trading partners in early the administration has said several agreements are nearing the finish line, so far it has struck only one trade deal—with the United Kingdom—and been on a carousel of escalation and de-escalation with other major trading partners, including Canada, the European Union and China. Markets have become more sanguine about trade; the S&P 500 just hit a new record. Companies caught up in the trade war may need to reduce affected business lines, increase production of other lines, find new suppliers or absorb higher costs. The specifics are critical. 'So much of this discussion is based on high-level trade models but any individual supply chain readjusts at the actual level of trade so we wanted to look at what the options were," says Olivia White, a director at McKinsey Global Institute and co-author of a report that tries to assess the possibility of disruptions, shortages and price impacts to aid companies rethinking trade strategy. The authors developed a 'rearrangement ratio," measuring a country's imports from a trading partner as a share of what is available from other exporters. Those imports most vulnerable to disruption are the ones with higher ratios. The good news: About 35 percent of the $440 billion the U.S. imports from China have a ratio less than 0.1, which means that the available export market is 10 times as big than what the U.S. buys from China. T-shirts, taps and valves and logic chips fits into this bucket. McKinsey estimates about 60% of intermediate goods—including auto parts and semiconductors—are relatively easy to source elsewhere. Another 30% of intermediate goods have a slightly higher rearrangement ratio but could still be sourced from suppliers not in China. Only about a quarter of U.S. imports from China have a rearrangement ratio of greater than 0.5—and much of that is electronics, like laptops. McKinsey estimates only 5% of imports have a ratio of more than 1, which means the amount the U.S. imports buys China exceeds what is available from other suppliers. That latter bucket includes fireworks, charcoal barbecues, vacuum flasks, fireworks and natural graphite. While the rare earth magnets critical to electric vehicles and military applications are also in this grouping, McKinsey noted many other critical minerals don't rise to this level. Though Mexico and southeast Asia have been popular alternative destinations for those diversifying supply chains away from China, McKinsey finds Europe well-positioned both as an alternative supplier of exports to the U.S. and a large market destination. Based on most of McKinsey's simulations, European exports to the U.S. could replace 30% to 65% of what the U.S. buys from China, and Europe's U.S. exports could rise meaningfully even with tariffs. Turkey already is a large textile manufacturer for other parts of Europe. Poland sells lithium-ion batteries to others in the region, and Czechoslovakia is a big supplier of toys. If trade shifts, these countries could potentially ship more to the U. S.—and Chinese goods could fill the hole for European demand. 'Europe could emerge as the fulcrum for this rearrangement," White says. Perhaps that could give the European Union some leverage as it tries to reach some sort of a trade framework with the U.S.
The Hindu
an hour ago
- The Hindu
ED searches multiple locations in Delhi over cyber fraud case involving Chinese national
The Enforcement Directorate on Wednesday (July 2, 2025) conducted searches at multiple locations in Delhi as part of a money laundering probe linked to an alleged over ₹900 crore cyber fraud by a Chinese national and some others, official sources said. The central agency has filed a criminal case under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) to investigate the "fraud". Five premises in Delhi are being searched in the case against a company named Xindai Technologies Pvt Ltd where it is alleged that general public was cheated in the name of investments and funds were laundered using full fledged money changers (FFMC), the sources said. The role of a Chinese national and some others is being investigated in this case where the proceeds of crime are estimated to be about ₹903 crore, they said.
Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Tesla quarterly deliveries seen falling again
Tesla is expected to report another fall in quarterly deliveries on Wednesday as the backlash against CEO Elon Musk's political views and competitive pressures continue to drag on demand. While much of Tesla's trillion-dollar valuation hangs on Musk's bet on commercializing robotaxis, most of the company's current revenue and profits come from its core business of selling electric vehicles - one that has been under pressure due to high interest rates and rising competition. The global EV market has been growing, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years, but annual sales of Tesla's aging lineup fell for the first time in 2024. While Musk has said sales will return to growth in 2025 - a pullback from his earlier promise of 20-30% growth - analysts expect an 8% sales decline this year. For the second quarter ended June, Tesla is expected to deliver 394,380 units, according to 23 analysts polled by Visible Alpha. That would be a drop of more than 11% year-over-year, and would follow a 13% decline the company reported in the previous quarter. Tesla has said the fall last quarter was due to a pause in production to shift to a refreshed version of its best-selling Model Y SUV, and analysts had said many customers were delaying purchases as they waited for it to roll out. "I think a lot of analysts were thinking this quarter would have a bump positive because of the new Model Y," said Ross Gerber, CEO of Tesla investor Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. "But the new Model Y in my mind isn't such a departure from the old Model Y," he said, adding that demand for the model did not live up to expectations. Instead, people bought fewer Tesla vehicles. Some prospective buyers were irked by Musk's public embrace of far-right politics in Europe and work for U.S. President Donald Trump overseeing cuts to federal jobs and funding. Though Musk has shifted his focus back to his companies, the backlash, along with customers choosing cheaper Chinese EVs, led to the fifth straight month of falling sales for Tesla in Europe, with a 27.9% drop in May, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association showed. In China, Tesla's share of the EV market has fallen to 7.6% for the first five months of 2025, from 10% last year and a peak of 15% in 2020, as competitors won over consumers with snazzy, new, feature-packed EVs. Xiaomi's YU7 SUV received exceptionally strong orders hours after going on sale last week and fanned speculation that Tesla may have to cut prices to fight back. "Lagging sales in Europe compared to the rest of the EV market and the increasing competition in China are both working against Tesla going forward," said Sam Fiorani, vice president at research firm AutoForecast Solutions. To achieve Musk's target of returning to growth this year, Tesla - if those second-quarter estimates are accurate - would need to hand over more than a million units in the second half, which would be a record and a tough challenge, according to Wall Street analysts, although typically sales are stronger in the latter half. Some help could come from Tesla's planned cheaper model - expected to be a stripped down Model Y - that the company has said it will start producing by June end. Reuters reported in April it would be delayed by at least a few months. After tanking early this year amid angry anti-Musk protests, Tesla shares have regained some ground recently. Last month, the company rolled out about a dozen robotaxis in a limited part of Austin, Texas, ferrying a small group of invited fans for a nominal fee but with a safety monitor and other restrictions.
