
Winds behind fierce California wildfires will change, study finds. Here's what it means
A new study reports that these hot, dry winds will become less frequent in the future. But the more rare Santa Ana winds could bring increasing danger, researchers from Princeton University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory found. When the winds do arrive, they will be drier than they are today and could pose greater wildfire risk to coastal Southern California, according to the study.
Southern California's Santa Ana winds are close cousins to the Bay Area's Diablo winds, which have also whipped up catastrophic blazes. The winds are a product of cold, dense air hundreds of miles away, in the Great Basin.
Temperature and pressure differences drive air toward California's coast. The air compresses as it barrels down mountain slopes, making it heat up and become drier. The resulting hot, dry winds can spread flames and even propel embers forward, causing blazes to explode in size.
The study used high-resolution computer models to simulate how Santa Ana winds will change in the future. The authors used an extreme emission climate scenario to probe the impacts of human-caused climate change.
They found that, in the future, Santa Ana winds will become less frequent, echoing previous studies. The authors propose that because land warms faster than the ocean, in the future, the temperature gradient that produces offshore winds — driven by cold air inland — will become weaker. Consequently, Santa Ana winds will occur less frequently.
High-resolution models, however, revealed that Santa Ana winds will be drier than they are today, exacerbating wildfire risk. These patterns didn't pop out when the scientists used lower-resolution models.
This could be because Santa Ana winds, as well as Diabo winds, are greatly influenced by small features in the landscape.
'If you have a higher-resolution model that can depict the topography of the region, you will have a more reliable result, ' said Janin Guzman-Morales, a regional climate scientist at San Jose State University, who wasn't part of the new research.
Guzman-Morales led a 2019 study that reported climate change suppressed Santa Ana Winds via changes to atmospheric pressure patterns. The new study makes the earlier findings more robust, Guzman-Morales said.
Alex Hall, a professor of atmospheric and oceanic science at UCLA, agreed that the main contribution of the study is 'highlighting the need for high resolution to simulate the impact of climate change on the Santa Ana wind phenomenon.'
Hall, who also wasn't part of the new research, co-authored a 2011 study that reported a reduced frequency of wintertime Santa Ana winds in the mid-21st century, due to human-caused climate.
The new research relied on one global climate model, produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Hall said that it will be valuable to analyze additional models, to quantify uncertainty and identify the most likely magnitude of Santa Ana wind weakening.
Another question is how future changes to seasonal precipitation will impact wildfire risk associated with Santa Ana winds, Hall said. While the Los Angeles wildfires in January were driven by offshore winds, a lack of rain in preceding months set the stage for blazes to take off.
Climate change could have similar effects on Diablo winds, given their similarity to Santa Ana winds, Guzman-Morales said. But additional research needs to be done to confirm that.
'There is an absolute need for that research,' Guzman-Morales said.
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Miami Herald
2 days ago
- Miami Herald
Corals keep cooking in climate-heated seas. These crossbreeds may keep hope alive
The first-in-the-world experiment began not with a splash, but with a gasp from a respirator. Neoprene-clad scientists sank to the shallow bottom of Flamingo Reef off Key Biscayne, clutching black milk cartons filled with precious cargo. Inside were a few dozen contraptions that looked like fancy desk toys — round pucks of concrete shielded by a spinning piece of metal resembling the ribs of an umbrella. Underneath the rotating spines were four thumbnail-sized chunks of coral. Two were the usual suspects for South Florida, hunks of elkhorn coral, and two were newcomers, a crossbreed of Florida elkhorns with their Honduran siblings. These 'Flonduran' corals are the first ever corals with parents from different countries to be planted in the wild, according to the University of Miami and Florida's Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, which approved the experiment. It's a revolutionary new strategy to save corals as human-caused climate change cranks up the temperature of oceans worldwide. The shallow, turquoise waters of the Caribbean have been hit particularly hard. A 2023 marine heat wave was devastating to the Florida reef tract and many neighboring island nations. Only about 1 in 5 staghorn corals on five major Keys reefs survived the event, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found. This pilot project, to share corals throughout the Caribbean and potentially breed new, more resilient varieties that have a chance of surviving the next heat wave, could be a step toward a world where more — but not all — corals survive. And while the scientific tide appears to have turned on the idea of breaking up corals into smaller pieces, growing them rapidly and planting them on reefs, new research suggests that genetically selecting for stronger coral might still give scientists a chance at restoring some reefs. 'We don't have to plant every single coral on the reef. We just have to plant the next generation. That is the goal of restoration, making these systems self-sustaining,' said Andrew Baker, lead scientist on the experiment and a professor at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. 'We're scattering the seeds. We have to wait for the oaks to grow up.' Baker and his team suited up earlier this month and slipped under the waters of Biscayne Bay to deliver these baby corals to their new home. Twenty feet under, they'll be neighbors with other coral experiments from UM, as well as a forest of colorful soft corals and sponges. They'll live here for at least a year, with regular checkups from an army of researchers, before they'll get yanked back to the surface for a round of stress tests. The big question for these tiny animals: Can they take the heat? From Tela Bay to Biscayne Bay Climate change is warming the whole planet, but the ocean is absorbing most of that heat. That's bad news for creatures that are sensitive to temperature changes, like corals. When waters get too toasty, corals spit out the algae that live within their skeletons, the stuff they rely on for food and protection from the sun's rays. Scientists call the ghostly white coral — starving and sunburning — bleached. If a coral stays bleached for too long, it dies. The oceans are always warming unevenly, with some hot spots turning into coral graveyards and others remaining resilient. That's where Baker and his team got the idea to find the sturdiest survivors and interbreed them with their Florida siblings. Over the last few years, Baker tried to scoop up corals from Mexico, Belize, the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas and even Cuba, where a massive amount of wild corals perished in 2023 when waters reached 95 degrees. He finally found success in Honduras, where waters are 2 degrees warmer than Florida and soupy with pollution from nearby coastal cities. And yet, Baker said, the corals in Tela Bay were 'remarkably resilient.' After a year and a half of permitting delays, Baker and his team managed to successfully airlift a handful of those resilient corals back to Florida. It was a 14-hour journey from sea to lab aquarium, featuring a small plane, a crate of seawater and plenty of bubble wrap. Once safely in the Sunshine State, the Florida Aquarium interbred the Honduras parents with a stock of Florida elkhorns, creating an army of 'Flonduran' children. Scientists call this assisted gene flow. In a commentary published Thursday in the journal Science, a team of leading coral scientists argued it may be the best way to save at least some corals. A reckoning in 2023 In Florida, elkhorn corals in particular are struggling to survive. Only 23 distinct genetic species, out of 153 cataloged before 2023, remain in the wild. The few remaining wild species have all but stopped reproducing in the Keys, scientists say. Some research suggests that, if temperatures continue to rise at the current pace, they could be locally extinct in a decade or two. 'The question is, how do we rescue those corals? They could withstand decades of additional heat stress in other places in the Caribbean,' Baker said. 'If we leave them where they are, they will potentially die off in the next big bleaching event.' Florida approved the outplanting of the new crossbred coral, but it denied an opportunity to outplant another hybrid coral — Florida corals mixed with corals from Curaçao — a few years back. Those offspring are still stored at a research aquarium in Florida. That's because the Honduras corals are genetic siblings to Florida corals, while Curaçao corals are further removed, like cousins once or twice removed. Corals from other locations, like Hawaii, are essentially strangers, scientists say. That leaves an increasingly shrinking pot of corals for Florida to choose from, if this is a strategy the state continues to pursue. While some may look at this strategy of swapping corals around a small region as the whole ocean cooks more like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, Baker said he prefers to see it as buying time. 'We need to buy time for as many species to thrive while we as a society figure out whatever the solution is going to be to climate change,' he said. 'It's an inconvenient truth that while this method can be used to help corals in some parts of the region, it's not a solution for all.' The science backs him up. An increasing amount of research has soured on the once very popular idea of rescuing dying reefs by choosing fast-growing species, breaking them up into tiny fragments and planting those regrown pieces on reefs. 'Coral restoration has been a very hot and sexy topic for years. Because of the growing recognition in the coral reef science community that restoring coral is difficult, the research is losing a little bit of momentum,' said Giovanni Strona, a researcher at the European Commission who has studied tropical reefs since 2008. In a paper published in April, Strona and his team argued that restoration only works under narrow circumstances. Replanting a huge number of genetic copies of one type of coral is like building an entire city with only one-bedroom apartments. It's not enough to attract the diverse, healthy ecosystem needed to survive disease, predators or climate change. 'You need to create a reef that's as diverse as the original one. Of course, having something is better than having nothing,' Strona said. It's also simply not happening fast enough. He compared replanting new corals to reforestation projects happening all around the world; they're not keeping up with the global loss of forests — at all. In total, he found, only a few square meters of reef around the world have been restored in recent years. 'It's not about restoring even three soccer fields. We're really talking about very tiny islands,' he said. However, the newest wave of coral research suggests that genetically selecting for stronger, better corals — including interbreeding via assisted gene flow — could still be a visible solution to keep some reefs in selected areas viable. A paper published last year found that lab-reared corals survived the 2023 Caribbean marine heat wave better than nursery-grown or native corals. But in some places, it may already be too late. 'Elkhorn and staghorn corals in some of the region's warmest areas, off the south coast of Cuba, were exposed to unprecedented heat stress during the 2023 bleaching event and have experienced major losses. It is not clear whether these reefs can recover through immigration of even more thermally tolerant genets from elsewhere because these reefs are among the warmest in the region,' the authors wrote in the Science commentary.


Forbes
2 days ago
- Forbes
Upgraded Northern Lights Alert: 14 States May See Aurora This Weekend
The aurora borealis or northern lights in the night sky over Shiprock, New Mexico. Days after the Northern Lights were glimpsed from northern U.S states — including Idaho, New Hampshire, Michigan and even Massachusetts — displays may be visible once again on Saturday night (July 26-27), according to a forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center. Although astronomical darkness is in short supply at northerly latitudes, sky-watchers in 14 U.S. states may have a chance to see the aurora borealis on the northern horizon during the night into Sunday morning. Northern Lights Tonight: Latest Forecast The agency's new three-day forecast indicates a minor geomagnetic storm, measured at a value of up to G1 on a scale of G1 to G5. According to NOAA's forecast, the Kp index — which provides a rough guide to the intensity of aurora displays — may reach 5 around 09:00-12:00 UTC (4:00 a.m. through 7:00 a.m. EDT). However, there is also a possibility that the geomagnetic storm could be a stronger G2 event. In a discussion post, NOAA officials stated that a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm is likely on July 27 'with a chance for isolated G2 (Moderate) periods due to CME effects from an event that left the Sun on 23 July.' According to the cause is a coronal mass ejection — a clump of charged particles ejected by the sun on July 23 — which is expected to interact with Earth's atmosphere. NASA's WSA-Enlil model has the CME striking Earth. Northern Lights Tonight: Where Aurora May Be Visible Keep an eye on NOAA's latest aurora viewline for an indication of exactly where aurora displays will potentially be seen from, but it will likely include parts of 14 northern U.S. states, and Canada, on July 26/27. U.S. states that may see aurora include (northerly parts of) Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Areas far from light pollution are likely to offer the best views. Check NOAA's 30-minute forecast or use the Glendale App for the latest forecasts and real-time information on substorms. Northern Lights Tonight: Why Aurora Are Being Seen So Far South The aurora borealis is being seen at more southerly latitudes than usual due to an increase in solar activity. Magnetic activity on the sun is currently at a 23-year high because it's reached solar maximum — the height of our star's 11-year solar cycle. Having possibly peaked in late 2024, the sun may now be quietening down, but solar maximum periods often have double peaks. It's also known that some of the best aurora displays can happen in the two years post-solar maximum. Decent aurora sightings in the U.S. are thus expected through 2026 and 2027. Northern Lights Tonight: Best Places And Times To See The Aurora The best places to see the Northern Lights are those at about 65 degrees north latitude between September and March (when there is sufficient hours of darkness). This is where the auroral oval sits, making northern Norway, northern Sweden, northern Finland, Iceland, Alaska and northern Canada reliable places for aurora sightings when skies are clear. Northern Lights Tonight: Aurora Explained The Northern Lights are caused by disturbances in Earth's magnetic field created by the solar wind. As charged particles accelerate along the magnetic field lines toward the polar regions, they collide with oxygen and nitrogen atoms, exciting them. That causes a photon of light to be released. Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.

Miami Herald
6 days ago
- Miami Herald
Largest animal on the planet spotted with her baby off CA coast. See rare moment
The largest animal on Earth and her baby were spotted off the coast of California and boaters are calling the moment 'magical.' On July 18, boaters got the chance to spot a blue whale with one of her babies, according to a Facebook post by the Monterey Bay Whale Watch. The 'inspiring' moment along with the 'beautiful, flat water' left boaters in awe, the group said. The group even got the chance to witness a blue whale show off its tail, passengers said. Onlookers said this moment served as a reminder for people 'to do everything' they can to 'protect the oceans and its inhabitants' as there are only 10,000 blue whales left in the world, the group said. Blue whales can weigh up to 330,000 pounds and grow to 110 feet long, making their length about the same as the height of a 10-story building, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They can live up to 90 years, though there was one that famously lived to be 110 years old, according to the nonprofit Whale and Dolphin Conservation. Facebook users rushed to the comments to share their thoughts on the 'wonderful experience' with one person saying, 'Best thing we've ever done. I almost cried when that first one breached right in front of us!' 'What fantastic pics!' another wrote. 'These are terrific!! How great to see all those wonderful animals!!' someone said. Monterey is about a 120-mile drive south from San Francisco.