Bilateral frictions to overshadow Rubio meeting with Indo-Pacific partners
The four countries, known as the Quad, share concerns about China's growing power, but their ties have been strained by President Donald Trump's global tariff offensive from which none of the Quad members have been spared.
Other issues are also putting pressure on relations.
Japan, the key U.S. ally in the Indo-Pacific, postponed an annual ministerial meeting with the U.S. State and Defense Departments that was supposed to be held on Tuesday. Press reports said this followed U.S. pressure for it to boost defense spending further than previously requested.
The Financial Times said last week the demands came from Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior Pentagon official, whom analysts say has also recently created anxiety in Australia by launching a review of the massive AUKUS project to provide that country with nuclear-powered submarines.
India, meanwhile, has differed with Trump's claims that his intervention and threats to cut off trade talks averted a major conflict between India and Pakistan after militants killed Indian tourists in the disputed Kashmir region in April.
Rubio hosted a meeting of Quad ministers in his first diplomatic engagement as secretary of state on January 21, the day after Trump began his second term, a move meant to underscore the importance of the Indo-Pacific region.
Trump has since been distracted by issues elsewhere, including most recently the Israel-Iran conflict. Tuesday's meeting will be a chance to refocus attention on the region seen as the primary challenge for the U.S. in the future.
After a joint session with Quad foreign ministers, Rubio is expected to hold bilateral meetings with Japan's Takeshi Iwaya, India's Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Australia's Penny Wong.
State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce told reporters on Monday the Quad partners would "reaffirm our shared commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
"This ministerial reinforces our joint resolve to defend sovereignty, strengthen regional maritime security and build resilient supply chains," she added.
Speaking at an event in New York on Monday, Jaishankar addressed U.S. ties by saying "relationships will never be free of issues," and adding: "What matters is the ability to deal with it and to keep that trend going in the positive direction."
Referring to the Quad, he said there were a lot of issues that needed to be discussed in the Indo-Pacific, including maritime security, technology, pandemic preparedness and education. "I think we'll get good results," he said.
In January, the Quad said officials would meet regularly to prepare for leaders' summit in India expected later this year.
Arthur Sinodinos, Australia's former ambassador to Washington now with the Asia Group consultancy, said bilateral issues could overshadow the meeting, from which Washington is keen to see a greater Quad focus on security.
"Australian audiences will be looking for clues on the U.S. stance on AUKUS as well as on trade," he said, adding that there also was interest in when Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would secure a first meeting with Trump.
Nicholas Szechenyi, a Japan expert at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, said U.S.-Japan ties appeared to have lost momentum since a February summit between Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Trump.
"The two leaders heralded a golden age in U.S.-Japan relations, but there are no trophies to put on the mantle at this stage," he said. "The tariff negotiations are all-consuming, and the Japanese appear exasperated by the administration's public lectures on defense spending."
Richard Rossow, an India expert, also at CSIS, said Trump's approach to India on trade and security interests had been "clumsy," but the long-term strategic and commercial reasons for deeper cooperation remained largely unchanged.
"So, the chances of further cooperation remain viable, even if the mood is less conducive," Rossow said, while noting the slow pace of staffing senior roles critical to managing day-to-day U.S. dealings with India, with no ambassador nominated and State and Defense department positions also unfilled.
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