Zohran Mamdani won because too many elites lost
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Hell hath no fury like the disappointed haute bourgeoisie. A populist revolt has been brewing among the American left since the global financial crisis dealt a severe economic shock to young college graduates. The surprising primary win of 33-year-old Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani in New York City 's mayoral primary is the latest manifestation of their economic frustration . And it will only get worse. One of the more surprising results of the Mamdani victoryconcerns his base: Younger, well-educated, fairly affluent and living in Brooklyn — especially the more bohemian Williamsburg and Bushwick neighborhoods. Mamdani was much less popular among lower earners who lived in the Bronx. So it's revealing that the relatively well-off turned out enthusiastically for someone who, only a few years ago, promised to seize the very means of production that underpinned their success.The reason may be that Mamdani's supporters tend to be elite, but don't feel elite enough. They are the ones who suffer from what University of Connecticut professor emeritus and complexity scientist Peter Turchin calls elite overproduction . Many children of middle- and upper middle-class households went to college expecting to have a career that brought wealth and status. But there are a limited number of 'elite' jobs. The result is a surplus of aspiring elites who end up resentful and blame a system they deem unfair. Turchin argues that past periods of social unrest were due to an overabundance of disappointed elites. It also explains recent bouts of populism , including the Occupy Wall Street movement.Part of the problem is that the divide between culturally and economically elite jobs has widened. Culturally elite jobs, such as working at a high-profile non-profit, media (ahem), the arts, or a university, all come with a certain cache but most pay far less than those in finance, consulting or corporate law.Based on the government's Current Population Survey between 2022 and 2025, about 12% of the college graduates who live in Brooklyn work in what I call 'creative' industries (arts, media, non-profits). This may seem low, but Brooklyn is one of the largest counties in the country and is very economically diverse. Creative college graduates here take up a smaller share of graduates in other New York Boroughs (between 5% and 11%) and the US's college educated population overall (7%).The creative college graduates in Brooklyn have a median household income of about $125,000. But that does not go far in New York, especially for those from affluent families who expect to replicate their parents' standard of living. When their parents were young, having a college degree ensured much higher relative pay. Big cities were also less expensive back then, and a non-profit job could afford a decent living standard.Only 30% of creative college-educated Brooklynites are homeowners, compared to 76% of college graduates in the rest of country. And it gets worse when they compare themselves to their peers who became part of the economic elite. Brooklyn also houses many people who work in finance, law and consulting. Their median household income is more than $290,000, and 58% own their home (though they tend to be a bit older).Although the cultural and economic elite have always lived alongside each other, the reason the divide is getting wider is because in the last few decades being in a big city such as New York has become necessary to elite success, be it cultural or economic. But cities have also become much more expensive, mainly as the result of increased demand for housing and limited supply. Economically elite jobs have also become even better paid relative to cultural elite jobs.All this is why Mamdani's focus on affordability, his promises to freeze rent, subsidize food costs and impose large taxes on the economic elite, is appealing to so many well-educated voters. To some extent, it is hard to feel sorry for them. They chose to work in professions that pay relatively less given their education. And they are hardly the only ones who struggle with the high cost of living. Don't forget that most college educated workers in New York earn more than those who don't have such degrees, with the median household income in Brooklyn (for all education levels) coming in at $73,000.But this is no comfort for those who feel cheated in a job that a generation ago could have afforded a comfortable lifestyle. It is also a legitimate problem that success in their industry requires living where they can't necessarily afford the lifestyle they want and feel they deserve.Turchin expects the problem will only get worse. Recent shifts in the labor market due to technology suggest the earnings premium from college may shrink further and cause more economic frustration. At the very least, if these voters turn to populism that pushes more price controls on housing and other necessities there will be even more shortages and higher prices for market-priced goods, and the affordability problem will swell, not only for the disaffected cultural elite but for everyone.
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