logo
Retail profit warnings more than double as high street pressures mount

Retail profit warnings more than double as high street pressures mount

Independent4 days ago
Profit alerts among retailers more than doubled in the second quarter as consumers reined in their spending and firms faced soaring wage costs, according to a report.
The latest report from EY- Parthenon also revealed that overall profit warnings among UK-listed firms jumped by a fifth year-on-year in the second quarter – with a record proportion citing policy changes and geopolitical uncertainty as the leading factor.
The data showed that seven UK-listed retailers, including supermarkets, cut profit guidance between April and June.
Britain's retail sector has come under significant pressure since last autumn's Budget move to hike National Insurance Contributions (NICs) and the minimum wage, both taking effect in April.
But EY said the high street was also facing tough consumer spending challenges, with shoppers cutting back and focusing on value.
EY partner Silvia Rindone said the spike in retail warnings 'highlights both softening consumer demand and the deeper structural headwinds facing the sector'.
'Retailers we speak to tell us that falling sales are currently indicative of a longer-term shift, with consumers becoming more value-focused and less brand-loyal, which leaves cost-pressured retailers in a bind,' she said.
Tariff woes sparked by US President Donald Trump waging a trade war also featured heavily in the report, contributing to a rise in the number of alerts more widely across corporate plc.
The report found that the number of profit warnings issued by UK-listed companies rose by 20% to 59 in the second quarter compared with 49 a year ago.
The top factor was policy change and geopolitical uncertainty, cited in nearly half (46%) of all warnings – up from 4% a year earlier and the highest since the study was launched over 25 years ago.
Over one in three (34%) warnings flagged tariff-related impacts, such as weaker demand, supply chain disruption and volatility in currency movements.
The proportion of warnings to cite contract and order cancellations or delays remained at a record high of 40% in the quarter.
Jo Robinson, EY-Parthenon partner and turnaround and restructuring strategy leader, said: 'The latest profit warnings data reflects the scale of persistent uncertainty and how heavy it continues to weigh on UK businesses.
'While this uncertainty has been a recurring theme since mid-2024, it has intensified so far this year – driven largely by geopolitical tensions and policy shifts – compounding pressure on both earnings and forecasts.
'While the announcement of global tariffs has clearly played a part in amplifying uncertainty, they are just one factor among broader geopolitical and policy upheaval.'
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Novartis to pay Matchpoint up to $1 billion to develop anti-inflammatory therapies
Novartis to pay Matchpoint up to $1 billion to develop anti-inflammatory therapies

Reuters

time21 minutes ago

  • Reuters

Novartis to pay Matchpoint up to $1 billion to develop anti-inflammatory therapies

July 24 (Reuters) - Swiss drugmaker Novartis (NOVN.S), opens new tab will pay up to $1 billion to U.S. biotech Matchpoint Therapeutics to develop oral drugs for several inflammatory diseases. Matchpoint said on Thursday it will use its technology to develop drugs that block the activity of a specific protein, helping to lower the production of inflammation-causing signals. The company will lead the research and drug development process, using the funding from Novartis. If Novartis exercises its option to exclusively license the program, the drugmaker will have global rights to develop and commercialize all products resulting from the collaboration. Matchpoint said it will receive up to $60 million in upfront payment and research funding, with up to $1 billion in total potential payments, including option exercise fee, and development and commercial milestones.

Starmer hails ‘historic day' as Modi visits for signing of UK-India trade deal
Starmer hails ‘historic day' as Modi visits for signing of UK-India trade deal

Leader Live

time23 minutes ago

  • Leader Live

Starmer hails ‘historic day' as Modi visits for signing of UK-India trade deal

At the Prime Minister's country residence Chequers, Sir Keir said the deal marked a 'step change' in relations. Mr Modi said they were 'writing a new chapter' in the UK and India's shared history. The deal is set to be worth £6 billion in investment from Indian and UK companies into the British economy, and is expected to have a £4.8 billion impact on the UK's gross domestic product (GDP). The two leaders have also agreed to increase efforts to tackle illegal migration and organised crime. Sir Keir said: 'I'm really pleased and privileged to welcome you here today on what I consider to be a historic day for both of our countries, and the delivery of the commitment that we made to each other.' Mr Modi, speaking via a translator, described the UK and India as 'natural partners'. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds and his Indian counterpart Piyush Goyal then formally signed the trade agreement in the great hall of Chequers. At a joint press conference in the hall, Sir Keir was invited by Mr Modi to visit India in the near future. The Indian prime minister also paid tribute to the British victims of the June plane crash outside of Ahmedabad airport, and described Britons of Indian origin as a 'living bridge' between the two countries. The ongoing England-India Test cricket clash is a 'great metaphor for our partnership', Mr Modi said, adding: 'There may be a swing and a miss at times, but we always play with a straight bat.' A brief translation error resulted in Sir Keir asking if he needed to repeat a section of his speech. But Mr Modi indicated he understood, with Sir Keir replying: 'I think we understand each other well.' As their statements drew to a close and the two leaders began to leave the room, Mr Modi jokingly asked if Sir Keir would play the grand piano next to them in the room. Sir Keir, who is known to have played several musical instruments including the piano, laughed at the suggestion. The UK-India trade deal is understood to be the largest of its kind for its economic impact on Britain. It will see tariffs on an array of British goods reduced from an average of 15% to 3%, with the aim of boosting the £11 billion of imports into the south Asian nation. Whisky tariffs will be slashed in half and will fall further over successive years, while other industries including soft drinks, cars and cosmetics are also expected to see cheaper duties. The deal is expected to result in 2,200 jobs across the country and £6 billion investment by British and Indian businesses. The UK and India are also bolstering co-operation on tackling corruption, fraud, organised crime and illegal migration, by sharing criminal records and other intelligence. But the deal has not given the UK as much access as it would have liked to India's financial and legal services industries. The agreement promises some benefits for the UK's financial services, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves understood to have pushed on behalf of the sector in discussions with her Indian counterpart. But more wide-ranging access was not agreed, and talks continue on a bilateral investment treaty aimed at protecting British investments in India and vice versa. The two nations also continue to discuss UK plans for a tax on high-carbon industries, which India believes could hit its imports unfairly. Negotiations on the deal began when Boris Johnson was prime minister in 2022, and were concluded in May this year. Shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith said it had only been made possible 'because of Brexit delivered by the Conservatives'. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) has said that the signing 'sends a powerful signal that the UK is open for business and remains resolute in its commitment to free and fair trade'. Chief executive Rain Newton-Smith added: 'A trade agreement with India – one of the world's fastest-growing economies – is a springboard for long-term partnership and prosperity. UK firms can take advantage of this new platform to scale, diversify and compete on the global stage.'

Lloyds boss warns Reeves against raising bank taxes amid growth mission
Lloyds boss warns Reeves against raising bank taxes amid growth mission

The Independent

time23 minutes ago

  • The Independent

Lloyds boss warns Reeves against raising bank taxes amid growth mission

The boss of Lloyds has warned Rachel Reeves against raising bank taxes in her autumn Budget, saying it would be at odds with the Government's plans to drive economic growth. It comes as the banking giant revealed its earnings beat expectations for the first half of 2025, with both customer lending and savings balances growing. Charlie Nunn, the group's chief executive, said raising taxes on banks is a 'political decision' and the group has had 'no engagement' with the Government about it. But he highlighted the Chancellor's Mansion House speech last week where she told of 'the need for a stronger economy and needing a strong financial services sector'. Mr Nunn said: 'We therefore believe that's the important thing to focus on and obviously, therefore, wouldn't be consistent with tax rises.' Ms Reeves is facing pressure over the UK's public finances following higher-than-expected Government borrowing figures last month, raising some expectations that she could hike taxes in her autumn Budget. Mr Nunn added: 'We already have the highest tax regime on the financial services sector of any major economy… we're completely comfortable with that. 'But it is important when you look at the competitiveness of the City of London and the financial services sector that we remain a competitive tax regime.' The bank boss also welcomed Ms Reeves's plans to loosen regulation in the sector, which she described as a 'boot on the neck of businesses' in many areas. Referring to rules around retail investment, Mr Nunn said: 'We really believe that regulation over the last 15 years has constrained our ability to provide advice to those that most need it.' He also said 'now is the right time' to look at potentially scrapping the bank ring-fencing regime, which requires banks to separate their retail from their investment banking activities. Ms Reeves announced plans to reform the system as part of wider measures. Meanwhile, the banking group – which incorporates Lloyds Bank, Halifax and Bank of Scotland – reported a pre-tax profit of £3.5 billion for the first six months of the year. This was 5% higher than a year ago, and ahead of the £3.2 billion that analysts had been expecting. Lloyds said total lending to customers increased by £11.9 billion over the period, or 3%, driven by UK mortgages with some 33,000 first-time buyers borrowing on a home. Customer deposits also grew by £11.2 billion, or 2%, following a strong season for ISAs, while more people moved money out of current accounts and into savings. Higher levels of saving partly reflected consumers trying to lock in higher savings rates before they come down, Mr Nunn said. But it also comes off the back of wage growth, and many people choosing to save surplus cash rather than spending more on nonessential items. 'There's still obviously customers who are really actively managing their finances and who are struggling to make ends meet,' he said. 'But year-on-year, all of those stats are looking slightly healthier, less people are worried a little bit about what's going on, and less people are looking to shop around.' He said those factors could lead to a 'more positive outlook than we're currently forecasting'. Economic forecasts from the bank show a 'modest deterioration' in the outlook, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing more slowly than previously thought. It also predicts the UK's unemployment rate rising to peak at 5% next year.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store