Indian rupee poised to rise after dollar slumps; importer flows remain in focus
However, traders said the upside for the local unit may be limited, citing recent price action that points to persistent dollar buying by importers.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 85.64 to 85.68 range, versus 85.7550 in the previous session.
On Monday, the Indian currency rallied to 85.30, before dollar buying by state-run and foreign banks triggered a reversal.
The reversal from 85.30 shows how challenging it is for the rupee to hold on at levels above 85.50, a currency trader at a private bank said.
Importer demand is 'always lurking and yesterday, I reckon there were outflows via foreign banks.'
The rupee's performance on the final day of June was reflective of its struggle through the month, during which it consistently lagged behind its Asian peers.
While most regional currencies rallied between 4% and 12% in June, the Indian unit declined slightly, underscoring its relative underperformance.
No respite for Dollar
The dollar index slumped to a more than three-year low on Monday and held those losses during Asia hours, weighed down by concerns over the US fiscal deficit and uncertainty around key trade agreements.
Indian rupee to ride Asia FX rally on US-China trade cheer
Investors are staying away from the dollar amid US Senate's efforts to pass President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill, which faces internal Republican resistance due to its projected $3.3 trillion impact on the national debt.
On trade, the July 9 deadline for Trump's tariffs is fast approaching.
Investors are keeping an eye on trade deals between the US and its partners.
In good news for the rupee, the White House said that the US and India are very near to finalising a trade deal.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Recorder
an hour ago
- Business Recorder
US job openings unexpectedly rise in May, hiring falls
WASHINGTON: U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in May, but a decline in hiring added to signs that the labor market had shifted into lower gear amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's tariffs on imports, with a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal duties drawing to an end. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, were up 374,000 to 7.769 million by the last day of May, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 7.30 million vacancies. Hiring decreased by 112,000 to 5.503 million in May. Layoffs dropped 188,000 to 1.601 million. Economists say the lack of clarity on what happens after July 9, when the 90-day pause on President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs expires, had left businesses unable to make long-term plans. A 90-day temporary reduction in tariffs between the U.S. and China is due to end in mid-August. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that trade partners could still face sharply higher tariffs next Wednesday, adding that any potential negotiating extensions will be up to Trump, who hinted that Japan may soon be notified of higher import duties. US federal workers receive second email on justifying jobs Data last week showed a surge in the number of people collecting unemployment checks to more than a 3-1/2-year high in mid-June. A survey from the Conference Board showed the share of consumers who viewed jobs as being 'plentiful' dropped to the lowest level in more than four years in June. Economists polled by Reuters expect the government's closely watched employment report on Thursday to show the jobless rate increased to 4.3% in June from 4.2% in May. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 110,000 jobs after advancing by 139,000 in May. The employment report is being published a day early because of the Independence Day holiday on Friday.
Business Recorder
2 hours ago
- Business Recorder
US Senate Republicans struggling to unite on Trump's $3.3 trillion tax-cut bill
WASHINGTON: U.S. Senate Republicans were struggling to pass President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut and spending bill early on Tuesday, amid deep divisions within the party about its expected $3.3 trillion hit to the nation's debt pile. The Senate remained in session through the night, voting on a long series of amendments, part of the arcane process Republicans are using to bypass Democratic objections under Senate rules that normally require 60 of the chamber's 100 members to agree on legislation. In the pre-dawn hours, the lawmakers voted 99-1 to strip out a 10-year federal moratorium on state regulation of artificial intelligence, which supporters had promoted as a way to free innovation from a panoply of differing requirements. Trump's Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and the struggle to pass the bill has laid bare divides within the party over debt. The bill would also cut Medicaid and some food assistance programs for low-income Americans to partly offset the cost of the tax cuts. 'They're still trying to get a resolution on the vote, and we'll probably have an hour delay, because they've got to get all the technical corrections right,' Republican Senator Thom Tillis told reporters. Tillis was one of two Republicans who voted on Saturday to try to block advancement of the bill, drawing intense criticism from Trump that led him to say he would not seek re-election next year. Trump's sweeping tax-cut, spending bill clears first US Senate hurdle The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its assessment on Sunday of the bill's hit to the $36.2 trillion U.S. debt pile. The Senate version is estimated to cost $3.3 trillion, $800 billion more than the version passed last month in the House of Representatives. Many Republicans dispute that assessment, contending that extending existing policy will not add to the debt. Nonetheless, international bond investors see incentives to diversify out of the U.S. Treasury market. Musk feud The debt debate re-ignited a feud between Trump and Elon Musk, the world's richest person, who on Monday threatened to fund primary challengers to Republicans who voted for the bill, due to its high cost. Trump responded by proposing cuts to funding to Musk's companies, which include SpaceX and Tesla. Democrats, meanwhile, hope the latest, eye-widening figure could stoke enough anxiety among fiscally minded conservatives to get them to buck their party, which controls both chambers of Congress. 'We are still going because, through 12 hours of debate and 21 hours of amendment votes, Republicans still don't have 50votes for their bill. Because it's a moral monstrosity,' said Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut on social media. Democrats argue that the bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy at the expense of low- and middle-income Americans. Republican supporters say it provides stability by preventing the expiration of Trump's 2017 tax cuts at the end of this year. US Senate pushes ahead on Trump tax cuts Trump wants the 940-page bill passed before the July 4 Independence Day holiday. No. 2 Senate Republican John Barrasso declined to forecast when the chamber would vote on the bill, telling reporters only: 'Not yet.' Bill politics Amendments proposed by Democratic senators, such as limiting cuts to Medicaid, were rejected by the Republican majority overnight. Embedded in the Senate Republicans' bill are several hot-button political issues, including a prohibition of Medicaid funding for a list of almost 30 medical procedures related to gender transition, as well as an increase of immigration-related funding for criminal and gang checks for unaccompanied migrant children, including examinations of 'gang-related tattoos' for children as young as 12 years old. Early on Tuesday, the Senate also adopted an amendment offered by Republican Senator Joni Ernst to prevent jobless millionaires from claiming unemployment compensation. Democrats and Republicans voted down an attempt by Republican Senator Susan Collins to cushion the impact of Medicaid cuts on rural health facilities by doubling federal support to $50 billion over five years and paying for the increase by raising the top federal tax rate. The measure still drew support from 18 Republicans. Some Republicans, including Senator Lisa Murkowski and Collins, backed a handful of Democratic amendments on social issues, including Medicaid. But the initiatives still failed. US House passes Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill, sends on to Senate Debt ceiling deadline The Republican measure contains a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase - $1 trillion more than the House's bill - but failure to pass some version would present lawmakers with a serious deadline later this summer, when the Treasury Department could come close to exhausting its borrowing authority and thus risk a devastating default. The debt limit increase has caused Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky to come out in opposition to the bill, joining fellow Republican Tillis, who decried its cuts to Medicaid and clean energy initiatives. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the Senate bill would result in about 11.8 million additional uninsured people, surpassing estimates for the House's version. If the Senate succeeds in passing the bill, it will then go to the House, where members are also divided, with some angryabout its cost and others worried about cuts to the Medicaid program. The megabill would extend the 2017 tax cuts that were Trump's main legislative achievement during his first term as president, cut other taxes and boost spending on the military and border security. Senate Republicans, who reject the budget office's estimates on the cost of the legislation, are set on using an alternative calculation method that does not factor in costs from extending the 2017 tax cuts. Outside tax experts, like Andrew Lautz from the nonpartisan think tank Bipartisan Policy Center, call it a 'magic trick'. Using this calculation method, the Senate Republicans' budget bill appears to cost substantially less and seems to save $500 billion, according to the BPC analysis.
Business Recorder
2 hours ago
- Business Recorder
Trump says will ‘take a look' at deporting Musk
WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump said Tuesday he could consider deporting Elon Musk, after the South African-born billionaire slammed his flagship spending bill. Trump also said the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) – which Musk headed before stepping down late May – may train its sights on the Tesla and SpaceX founder's government subsidies. 'I don't know. We'll have to take a look,' Trump told reporters at the White House when asked if he would consider deporting Musk. 'We might have to put DOGE on Elon. You know what DOGE is? DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon.' Donald Trump attacks Musk subsidies in spending bill row Trump doubled down on the threat when he said he believed Musk was attacking his so-called 'One Big Beautiful Bill' because he was annoyed that it had dropped measures to support electric vehicles (EV). 'He's losing his EV mandate. He's very upset about things, but you know, he could lose a lot more than that, I can tell you right now. Elon can lose a lot more than that.' Trump made similar comments on his Truth Social network late Monday, saying that 'without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa.' Musk, the world's richest person, was Trump's biggest donor in the 2024 election and initially maintained a near constant presence at the newly elected president's side. They had an acrimonious public falling out this month over the bill and the tycoon has reprised his criticisms in recent days, accusing Republicans of abandoning efforts to place the United States at the front of the EV and clean energy revolution. Musk has also renewed his calls for the formation of a new political party called the 'America Party' if the bill passed.
