Mortgage Rate Predictions: Here's Why Rates Are Staying High in July

CNET

14-07-2025

Buyers should keep an eye on the possibility of rate cuts in the next few months.
Tharon Green/CNET
After the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dipped to around 6.7% (its lowest level in months), prospective homebuyers jumped to take advantage. Before the July 4 holiday weekend, mortgage loan applications increased 9.4% week over week, per the Mortgage Bankers Association. Homeowners also seized on refinancing, with refinance activity 56% higher than the same time last year.
But the reprieve didn't last long. On Monday, average 30-year fixed rates were back around 6.76%, according to Bankrate data.
The culprit was last month's stronger-than-expected jobs report, released July 3, which sent bond yields up. Since the 30-year mortgage rate closely tracks the 10-year Treasury yield, rising bond yields translate to higher rates for home loans. Last month's surprisingly low unemployment rate also reduced the probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this summer.
"The headline labor market data isn't crashing and burning, which likely gives the Fed some cover to hold rates where they are," said Alex Thomas, senior analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting. While the Fed doesn't have direct control over the mortgage market, its monetary policy guides mortgage lenders and the general direction of interest rates.
Experts say average 30-year fixed mortgage rates are likely to stay above 6.5% in the coming months, with a potential for small and temporary dips, not substantial drops. Prospective homebuyers are also contending with a long-standing housing shortage, high home prices and a loss of purchasing power.
CNET
What's driving mortgage interest rates this week?
Mortgage rates, which are sensitive to investor speculation and economic data, have been affected by the Trump administration's tax cuts and tariff policies. If tariffs end up raising prices as expected, that would send an even clearer "wait and see" signal to central bank policymakers, whose primary task is keeping both inflation and unemployment in check.
"Increased uncertainty about the inflation picture lessens the chances of a cut in rates by the Fed," said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com. "Greater inflation would argue against cutting rates, absent any significant deterioration in labor conditions."
Following signs of cooler inflation in 2024, the Fed cut interest rates three times but has held rates steady throughout 2025. A slowing job market with higher unemployment could still prompt the central bank to reduce borrowing costs this year, eventually helping mortgage rates fall.
But the most recent jobs report appeared too steady on the surface, according to Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. "For the Fed, this reduces the urgency to cut rates in July. Even a September move may require more definitive evidence that the economy is cooling," Kushi said.
Fewer interest rate cuts combined with the recently passed budget bill, which is expected to significantly boost government debt deficits, are likely to keep upward pressure on longer-term bond yields and mortgage rates.
What's happening today's housing market?
Affordability challenges have kept the housing market frozen for several years. Even as the long-standing housing shortage eases in several local markets and gives those buyers improved negotiating power, the rest remain locked out by steep home prices. The 2025 homebuying season is still on hold, said Kushi.
Plus, with recession risks still on the horizon, people who are nervous about finances will be more reluctant to take on mortgage loan debt. Prospective buyers waiting for mortgage rates to drop may soon have to adjust to the "higher for longer" rate environment.
While market forces are out of your control, there are ways to make buying a home slightly more affordable. Last year, nearly half of all homebuyers secured a mortgage rate below 5%, according to Zillow.
Here are some proven strategies that can help you save up to 1.5% on your mortgage rate.
💰 Build your credit score. Your credit score will help determine whether you qualify for a mortgage and at what interest rate. A credit score of 740 or higher will help you qualify for a lower rate.
💰 Save for a bigger down payment. A larger down payment allows you to take out a smaller mortgage and get a lower interest rate from your lender. If you can afford it, a down payment of at least 20% will also eliminate private mortgage insurance.
💰 Shop for mortgage lenders. Comparing loan offers from multiple mortgage lenders can help you negotiate a better rate. Experts recommend getting at least two to three loan estimates from different lenders.
💰 Consider mortgage points. You can get a lower mortgage rate by buying mortgage points, with each point costing 1% of the total loan amount. One mortgage point equals a 0.25% decrease in your mortgage rate.
Now Playing: 6 Ways to Reduce Your Mortgage Interest Rate by 1% or More
02:31