US faces steeper crude oil production decline than previously anticipated: S&P Global Commodity Insights
The global commodities information services provider projects a sharper year-on-year overall production decline in 2026 in the US than previously anticipated.
The latest S&P Global Commodity Insights Global Crude Oil Markets Short-term Outlook finds that the US, which has been the biggest source of global supply growth in recent years, will be 'disproportionately impacted' by a combination of sluggish global oil demand growth and supply surplus.
Following the most recent decision by OPEC+ members to proceed with the accelerated unwinding of production cuts, along with supply growth elsewhere, year-on-year global crude oil (and condensate) production growth is expected to be 2.2 million barrels per day for the second half of 2025, compared to just 390,000 barrels per day of expected crude oil demand growth.
S&P Global Commodity Insights said that annual global total oil (liquids) demand growth for 2025 is expected to be the weakest since 2001, excluding the economic downturn during the 2008-09 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, averaging 770,000 barrels per day.
The S&P report has revised down the crude oil price outlook, with Dated Brent ranging from the mid-USD 60s per barrel to USD 50 per barrel or below for a time (low USD 60-upper USD 40s for WTI).
Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights, states, 'The oil price is currently defenseless. Seasonal demand in the northern hemisphere summer may obscure the impact for a bit, but eventually there will be too much crude oil in the market absent a change in production trends.'
The report asserted that the US is expected to bear the brunt of the impacts from an oversupplied market compared to other sources of non-OPEC supply, such as Canada, Guyana, and Brazil.
'The United States has been the biggest source of supply growth in recent years and a factor in OPEC+ supply restraint. Signs of weak U.S. crude supply growth and decline could begin to alter oil market psychology. However, much will still depend on the future course of OPEC+ production and oil demand,' said Ian Stewart, Associate Director, S&P Global Commodity Insights. (ANI)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Economic Times
an hour ago
- Economic Times
Epsilon to partner with firms eyeing ex-China sourcing of EV battery materials: MD Vikram Handa
ANI Represenattional image Battery materials manufacturer Epsilon Advanced Materials is prepared to enter into long-term strategic partnerships with the companies looking to source high-quality graphite anode and cathode materials outside China, a company official said. EV batteries are made of components like anode, cathode, electrolyte and separator. As of now China commands over 90 per cent of this graphite anode and cathode processing capacity which is used in electric vehicles. The recent curbs by China on the export of key battery-grade materials and technologies for both graphite anode and cathode (lithium iron phosphate-based) has intensified global concerns over supply chain vulnerabilities in the electric vehicle (EV) sector including in India. This development comes as India ramps up efforts to build a resilient, localised battery supply chain in the wake of China's tightening export restrictions on critical battery technologies. "Epsilon is ready to partner with cell manufacturers and Auto OEMs who are eyeing ex-China sourcing to secure long-term supply chain of high-quality anode materials and LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cathode while supporting their localization and sustainability objectives," company's Managing Director Vikram Handa said in an interview. China has a good early mover advantage and hence has been dominating the global battery materials supply chain for decades, but the recent export restrictions has shown how critical it is for battery manufacturers and auto OEMs to diversify their sourcing, outside of China, he explained. "To begin with, our integrated and proprietary synthetic and natural graphite anode materials allow us to provide a secure and consistent supply chain to our customers across geographies. We have strategically invested in R&D facility and commercial plant to ensure customer qualification samples to our customers for sample testing and qualifying them," he said. The company has its own proprietary technology for manufacturing lithium iron phosphate cathode with an R&D facility in Germany which makes them unaffected from the recent Chinese curbs. Many companies who were dependent on the Chinese LFP cathode technology to manufacture in India are stuck as they will have to now invest in their own R&D which takes 5-6 years to mature. "We have manufacturing plants in India, USA, and Finland with total capacity of 60,000 tonne by 2027 and 220,000 tonne by 2030 which make us the largest anode material producer outside China and will strengthen the resilience of our supply network. "The cathode material plant of 100,000 tonne by 2030 in India will make us Atmanirbhar in electric vehicle battery material supply chain. This multi-continent presence gives our international clients more flexibility, localised supply options, and a reduced risk of disruption," he explained. The company is investing Rs 15,350 crore in Karnataka to develop state-of-the-art manufacturing and research facility for electric vehicle battery materials, battery testing and advanced materials R&D.
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
IndiGo begins flight operations from Hindon Airport, becomes second airline after Air India do so
Union Civil Aviation Minister Ram Mohan Naidu Kinjarapu on Sunday launched new flight routes by IndiGo Airlines from Hindon Airport in Ghaziabad, reported ANI. With this IndiGo becomes the second airline, after Air India, to mark its presence in Hindon Airport. The Air India Express started its operations four months ago from Hindon airport. Hindon Airport in NCR will now be connected to nine Indian cities—Bengaluru, Kolkata, Varanasi, Goa, Patna, Chennai, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, and Indore—through IndiGo services. "This is an (Udan) success of, Hindon, Ghaziabad, western Uttar Pradesh, and entire country. This is an Udan of the ambitions and aspirations of common Indians," ANI quoted the Union minister as saying from the Hindon Airport. Speaking to reporters, Naidu said that airlines fleet, airports, terminal capacity, and flyers have doubled in India over the past decade. "During 2024-2034, civil aviation in tier II and III cities will grow and we will have to unlock the potential. Hindon will serve as an example," the minister said. Now, flyers based out of the National Capital Region will be served by these two airports after operations from both Indira Gandhi International Airport (DEL) and Hindon Airport (HDO) have become operational. Earlier in 2019, the Hindon Airport's development work was taken up under UDAN at ₹ 50 crore, in collaboration with Indian Air Force. During his speech, Naidu said that the annual flyers from Hindon Airport was about 8,000 in 2019, which has risen to upwards of 80,000 now. The union government in Budget 2025-26 has put an additional thrust on the ever-growing domestic civil aviation sector. A modified UDAN scheme will be launched to enhance regional connectivity to 120 new destinations and carry 4 crore passengers in the next 10 years, said Naidu. Launched in 2017, the UDAN scheme focuses on improving unserved air routes in underserved regions. India's aviation industry has experienced significant growth in the past decade, and the number of operational airports in the country has since doubled. The government aims to make India a global aviation hub by 2030.
India.com
an hour ago
- India.com
Job losses, salary cuts and shutdowns: This country is in massive danger due to Trump's taxes, the country is...
Donald Trump- File image US-China trade war: In a major update amid the global trade war initiated by the United States of America, under the leadership of Donald Trump, media reports have indicated that the new US tariffs are forecast to sharply reduce Chinese corporate profits, particularly in technology, manufacturing, and export-driven sectors. As a result of the ongoing trade tussle between US and China, China is expected to be massively impacted by widespread job losses, business shutdowns, and a wave of bankruptcies. Here are all the details you need to know about the economic trouble expected in China. Although it may seem that China is not facing any substantial challenges on the economic front due to its political posturing, media reports say that China is planning to tackle the trade war with expanding its presence in alternate markets, stimulating domestic consumption, and adapting its trade and economic policies. Why tariffs on China is good news for India? Due to the rising tariffs on China, a report by State Bank of India (SBI) has indicated that India has a significant opportunity to increase its chemical exports to the United States if it manages to negotiate for less than 25 per cent tariffs. As reported by ANI news agency, the SBI report noted that by capturing a part of the market share currently held by China and Singapore, India can increase its share in chemical exports to US. How India can beat China? The report highlighted that if India is able to capture just 2 per cent of the chemical export share from these two countries, it can potentially add 0.2 per cent to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The report pointed out that among the top five imports by the USA, India has a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) only in the chemicals sector. With China now facing higher tariffs on exports to the US, the report notes that this could open a window of opportunity for India to step in and increase its exports in chemicals, including pharmaceutical products. (With inputs from agencies)
