UFC Mexico City Fight Card Odds And Predictions: Moreno Vs. Erceg
The UFC returns to Mexico City, Mexico for Saturday's UFC Fight Night Card. The UFC Mexico City fight card takes place on March 29, from Arena CDMX. The main event features former two-time UFC flyweight champion against recent UFC flyweight title challenger Steve Erceg. Moreno is coming off a decision win over Amir Albazi, which ended his two-fight losing skid. Meanwhile, Erceg is looking to end a run of two consecutive losses heading into the UFC Mexico City headliner. Manuel Torres faces Drew Dober in a lightweight bout in the evening's co-main event. Below, we look at the odds, picks and predictions of the UFC Mexico City main event meeting between Moreno and Erceg.
EDMONTON, ALBERTA - NOVEMBER 02: Brandon Moreno of Mexico prepares to face Amir Albazi of Iraq in a ... More flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Rogers Place on November 02, 2024 in Edmonton, Alberta. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Moreno (22-8-2) is the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC flyweight rankings. The 30-year-old is a former two-time UFC 125-pound champion. Moreno's first title reign began in June 2021 with a submission win over Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 263. He returned the title to Figueiredo in their UFC 270 rematch, losing that January 2022 contest via decision.
Moreno then won the interim flyweight belt in July 2022 with a UFC 277 TKO triumph over Kai Kara-France. In January 2023, Moreno regained the undisputed UFC title from Figueiredo with a TKO victory at UFC 283.
Like his first title run, Moreno's second stint with the 125-pound ended without him making a successful defense. Alexandre Pantoja took the belt from him in July 2023 via split decision. The ex-champ then lost a split decision to Brandon Royval in February 2024.
Moreno bounced back from that loss with a decision win over Amir Albazi in the main event of a UFC Fight Night event in Edmonton in November. The ex-champ has not fought since defeating Albazi.
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - MAY 04: Steve Erceg of Australia prepares to face Alexandre Pantoja of ... More Brazil in a UFC flyweight championship bout during the UFC 301 event at Farmasi Arena on May 04, 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Steve Erceg (12-3) has not been with the UFC long. The fighter from Perth, Australia, has just five UFC bouts to his name, including a surprise title fight in May 2024.
Erceg was 9-1 when he made his UFC debut at UFC 289 in June 2023. Despite fighting on the early prelims of that card and not getting a finish, Erceg picked up a 'Performance of the Night' bonus for a unanimous decision win that night over David Dvorak.
That win put Erceg into the top 15 of the UFC's 125-pound division. In his next outing, Erceg faced Alessandro Costa in the 'featured prelim' spot of the UFC 295 fight card. Erceg again picked up a unanimous decision win on that night.
After defeating Costa, Erceg moved up to No. 12 in the division. For his next scrap, Erceg faced Matt Schnell in March of this year. Erceg won that fight and his second 'Performance of the Night' bonus with a second-round knockout of Schnell. The win put him in the top 10 of the division, and thanks to some booking quirks, it earned him a shot at Pantoja's title in the top spot of the UFC 301 fight card.
Erceg handled himself well against Pantoja but lost to the champ by decision in their May 2024 matchup. Erceg next faced Kai Kara-France in the co-main event of UFC 305, a fight that Kara-France won via first-round TKO. Erceg enters UFC Mexico City as the No. 8 ranked UFC flyweight.
When the betting odds opened for the UFC Mexico City main event, Moreno was a +105 betting underdog to Erceg, who opened as the -125 betting favorite. Those odds have flipped. Today, Moreno is the -240 betting favorite, while Erceg checks in at +205.
*Odds via BetOnline
EDMONTON, ALBERTA - NOVEMBER 02: (L-R) Brandon Moreno of Mexico punches Amir Albazi of Iraq in a ... More flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Rogers Place on November 02, 2024 in Edmonton, Alberta. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Record: 22-8-2 with five knockouts and 11 submissions
Age: 31
Height: 5'7"
Reach: 70"
Stance: Orthodox
PERTH, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 18: (L-R) Steve Erceg of Australia and Kai Kara-France of New Zealand ... More trade strikes in a flyweight fight during the UFC 305 event at RAC Arena on August 18, 2024 in Perth, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Record: 12-3 with two knockouts and six submissions
Age: 29
Height: 5'8"
Reach: 68"
Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.99
Significant Striking Accuracy: 43 percent
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.53
Striking Defense: 60 percent
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 1.59
Takedown Accuracy: 46 percent
Takedown Defense: 64 percent
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.37
Significant Striking Accuracy: 48 percent
Significant Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.22
Striking Defense: 53 percent
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 1.16
Takedown Accuracy: 26 percent
Takedown Defense: 60 percent
EDMONTON, ALBERTA - NOVEMBER 02: Brandon Moreno of Mexico prepares to face Amir Albazi of Iraq in a ... More flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Rogers Place on November 02, 2024 in Edmonton, Alberta. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Moreno has not had much success in Mexico City as a member of the UFC roster. This fight should be an entertaining scrap, but look for the former champ to get his hand raised on Saturday.
The betting pick is for Brandon Moreno to beat Steve Erceg via decision.
Saturday, March 29, 2025
Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico
ESPN2 and ESPN+
Prelims: 4:00 p.m. ET
Main Card: 7:00 p.m. ET
We will have more on the UFC Mexico City 2025 fight card, including more on the Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg main event as the UFC Fight Night card approaches.
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