Public aggression, private restraint

Business Recorder

6 days ago

EDITORIAL: Good thing this isn't turning out to be another one of president Trump's tricks. For once, the president's abrupt pivot from war to diplomacy appears to have held — and the Iran-Israel ceasefire, fragile though it may be, has held with it. That's saying something, given how recently he admitted to using negotiations as a ruse to lull Iranian leadership while Israel launched the opening salvos. Then, while dangling a two-week window for talks, he struck again. And just a day before announcing the ceasefire, he was still entertaining talk of regime change in Tehran.
It didn't help that both Israel and Iran absorbed far more damage in this brief but blistering episode than they had anticipated. Israel, in particular, was caught off guard by the scale and precision of Iranian strikes. Entire neighbourhoods in Tel Aviv and Haifa were gutted, shattering the long-held illusion that Iran would never retaliate directly or decisively. Iran's ability to sustain such an attack — even under the weight of sanctions and international isolation — shocked not just Israeli planners, but its American backers.
And yet the first reliable indicator that something had changed did not come from official channels — it came from the markets. As Iranian missiles were still in the air, oil prices dropped and equities rallied. That told the real story. The strikes were not interpreted as escalation. They were decoded as de-escalation — symbolic retaliation with political cover and strategic signalling, not a trigger for all-out war. Markets, unlike political speechwriters, have no time for theatrics. They responded to what was, not what was said.
There's also mounting evidence that the Americans and Iranians coordinated just enough to allow each other a way out. Personnel and key assets were quietly moved out of harm's way before attacks. Trump even publicly thanked Iran for what he called their 'professionalism' in avoiding casualties. It's also being reported that the US gave Tehran advance notice before targeting their airbases — giving both sides political ammunition for domestic audiences, while reducing the actual cost of confrontation.
This manufactured choreography — public aggression, private restraint — is telling. It allowed Iran to claim it struck back without inviting a second wave. It gave Israel the opportunity to insist it had delivered deterrence. And it gave Trump the spotlight to play the peacemaker. But if the intent was to defuse tensions, it would have helped if the ceasefire hadn't come less than 24 hours after open talk of regime change.
That inconsistency is now the biggest source of instability. No one knows if Trump is negotiating in good faith or simply buying time. If this pattern holds — provoke, pause, provoke again — then the region will remain locked in a cycle of symbolic restraint followed by unpredictable violence. And that will do little to prevent the next miscalculation.
In the meantime, diplomacy has been reduced to theatre, and restraint outsourced to financial markets. The real risk is that, next time, the choreography may fail. Trump's current narrative only works if all parties stick to the script. But war, unlike politics, doesn't always respect timing or intention. Already he's fuming and swearing at both parties — more Israel than Iran — for violating the truce.
For now, the ceasefire holds. But so does the memory of how it began. And unless Trump proves capable of consistency — something he has shown no talent for — the next strike may not come with the courtesy of advance notice or a convenient off-ramp. That's what should worry everyone.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025