Britain on the brink of a 'cousin crash': Smaller families on the rise as birthrate falls - with average number of cousins dropping significantly

Daily Mail​

4 days ago

Britain is on the brink of a cousin crash due to declining birthrate and smaller families, according to researchers.
In the 1970s, the average British teenager had seven cousins, but today they only have five. It is projected to fall to four by the end of the century.
Academics Diego Alburez-Gutierrez of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, alongside fellow academics Iván Williams and Hal Caswell, have published a study on the declining numbers of cousins.
They argue there will be a shift away from children growing up with lots of relatives their own age — including both siblings and cousins — to instead spending more time with grandparents and even great-grandparents.
As families become older and smaller, it means cousins, who often help each other with financial, practical or emotional support, will be called upon less.
And although friends are increasingly being used to fill in the role of traditional cousins, they are seen as a lot less reliable on average.
Cousins often help even after years of little contact, while this happens less often with long-lost friends.
This is because 'family networks are like a spider's web', according to Professor Robin Dunbar of Oxford University.
The anthropologist and evolutionary psychologist, who has studied the science behind our bonds with family and friends, told the Times: 'Your relationship with your cousin is kept in place not just by your interaction with your cousin.
'But also with your interaction with any number of intervening relatives. That isn't true of friendships, which tend to be more individual and personal.'
The experts point out that this change makes a marked difference for the vast majority of human history, where the majority of close relationships would overwhelmingly be made up of extended family members.
The changing nature of our families' lives have been driven by freefalling birth rates, which have triggered doomsday warnings about population collapse from some.
Demographers warn the lack of babies will devastate Western economies as it may leave countries with too few younger people to work, pay tax and look after the elderly.
It is believed to be caused by some women prioritising their education and careers, and couples waiting to have children until later in life..
Rising costs, especially the price of childcare and housing, is another factor thought to be putting people off starting families.
There is no evidence that Covid vaccines are to blame, with scientists insisting there is no proof they harm fertility.
Women in England and Wales, on average, now only have 1.44 children.
This is the lowest since records began in the 30s and half of levels seen during the mid-60s baby boom.
Britain's fertility rate as a whole is forecasted to fall to 1.3 by 2100.
The fewer babies being born on average means the less likely the average Brit is to have a squad of cousins to call upon when they need them.
For some families, the changing number of cousins in just a few generations has been drastic.
For example, there are many instances in recent history of Catholic families, encouraged by their faith, having well over 100 cousins.
As well as being more reliable than friends, cousins also have the advantage of being more diverse.
Alburez-Gutierrez argues that while people do choose their friends, they often tend to come from the same narrow social demographic, whereas cousins can be far more varied.
Distant family members can often be very different, he said, pointing out the example of the stereotypical cantankerous uncle who brings up controversial topics around the Christmas dinner table.
The varied nature of groups of people bound by blood often means they are more likely to get exposed to ideas or points of view that are different.
Cousins often occupy a varied place within families. Some see them as close as a sibling, while others see them as strangers. Some cousins live on the same street; some live on opposite side of the world.
But all cousins know what it's like to be part of the same particular family.
They also have the advantage of, unlike sibling relationships, of not being fraught by intense closeness such as arguing over childhood toys or a parents' eldercare.
Instead they are usually uncomplicated, even if they are closer in age and are in the same generation.
The experts believe the role of grandparents are important when it comes to cousins developing a bond as children.
And although cousins tend to naturally drift apart a little when grandparents die, some sense of connection is likely to remain as family members are much more obligated to say yes.
The UK is not alone in facing a cousin crashing fertility crisis, with the latest figures showing that the EU also experienced a plunge last year to an all-time low.
Double-digit percentage falls were recorded in Romania (13.9 per cent), Poland (10.7 per cent) and Czechia (10 per cent).
Wealthy EU nations, including France and Germany, also saw significant drops.
So what is behind the West's baby bust?
Women worldwide, on average, are having fewer children now than previous generations.
The trend, down to increased access to education and contraception, more women taking up jobs and changing attitudes towards having children, is expected to see dozens of countries' population shrink by 2100.
Dr Jennifer Sciubba, author of 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World, told MailOnline that people are choosing to have smaller families and the change 'is permanent'.
'So it's wise to focus on working within this new reality rather than trying to change it,' she said.
Sex education and contraception
A rise in education and access to contraception is one reason behind the drop off in the global fertility rate.
Education around pregnancy and contraception has increased, with sex education classes beginning in the US in the 1970s and becoming compulsory in the UK in the 1990s.
'There is an old adage that "education is the best contraception" and I think that is relevant' for explaining the decline in birth rates, said Professor Allan Pacey, an andrologist at the University of Sheffield and former chair of the British Fertility Society.
Elina Pradhan, a senior health specialist at the World Bank, suggests that more educated women choose to have fewer children due to concerns about earning less when taking time off before and after giving birth.
In the UK, three in 10 mothers and one in 20 fathers report having to cut back on their working hours due to childcare, according to ONS data.
They may also have more exposure to different ideas on family sizes through school and connections they make during their education, encouraging them to think more critically about the number of children they want, she said.
And more educated women may know more about prenatal care and child health and may have more access to healthcare, Ms Pradhan added.
Professor Jonathan Portes, an economist at King's College London, said that women's greater control over their own fertility means 'households, and women in particular, both want fewer children and are able to do so'.
More women entering the workplace
More women are in the workplace now than they were 50 years ago — 72 vs 52 per cent — which has contributed to the global fertility rate halving over the same time period.
Professor Portes also noted that the drop-off in the birth rate may also be down to the structure of labour and housing markets, expensive childcare and gender roles making it difficult for many women to combine career aspirations with having a family.
The UK Government has 'implemented the most anti-family policies of any Government in living memory' by cutting services that support families, along with benefit cuts that 'deliberately punish low-income families with children', he added.
As more women have entered the workplace, the age they are starting a family has been pushed back. Data from the ONS shows that the most common age for a women who were born in 1949 to give birth was 22. But women born in 1975, were most likely to have children when they were 31-years-old.
In another sign that late motherhood is on the rise, half of women born in 1990, the most recent cohort to reach 30-years-old, remained childless at 30 — the highest rate recorded.
Women repeatedly point to work-related reasons for putting off having children, with surveys finding that most women want to make their way further up the career ladder before conceiving.
However, the move could be leading to women having fewer children than they planned. In the 1990s, just 6,700 cycles of IVF — a technique to help people with fertility problems to have a baby — took place in the UK annually. But this skyrocketed to more than 69,000 by 2019, suggesting more women are struggling to conceive naturally.
Declining sperm counts
Reproductive experts have also raised the alarm that biological factors, such as falling sperm counts and changes to sexual development, could 'threaten human survival'.
Dr Shanna Swan, an epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, authored a ground-breaking 2017 study that revealed that global sperm counts have dropped by more than half over the past four decades.
She warned that 'everywhere chemicals', such as phthalates found in toiletries, food packaging and children's toys, are to blame. The chemicals cause hormonal imbalance which can trigger 'reproductive havoc', she said.
Factors including smoking tobacco and marijuana and rising obesity rates may also play a role, Dr Swan said.
Studies have also pointed to air pollution for dropping fertility rates, suggesting it triggers inflammation which can damage egg and sperm production.
However, Professor Pacey, a sperm quality and fertility expert, said: 'I really don't think that any changes in sperm quality are responsible for the decline in birth rates.
'In fact, I do not believe the current evidence that sperm quality has declined.'
He said: 'I think a much bigger issue for falling birth rates is the fact that: (a) people are choosing to have fewer children; and (b) they are waiting until they are older to have them.'
Fears about bringing children into the world
Choosing not to have children is cited by some scientists as the best thing a person can do for the planet, compared to cutting energy use, travel and making food choices based on their carbon footprint.
Scientists at Oregon State University calculated that the each child adds about 9,441 metric tons of carbon dioxide to the 'carbon legacy' of a woman. Each metric ton is equivalent to driving around the world's circumference.
Experts say the data is discouraging the climate conscious from having babies, while others are opting-out of children due to fears around the world they will grow up in.
Dr Britt Wray, a human and planetary health fellow at Stanford University, said the drop-off in fertility rates was due to a 'fear of a degraded future due to climate change'.
She was one of the authors behind a Lancet study of 10,000 volunteers, which revealed four in ten young people fear bringing children into the world because of climate concerns.
Professor David Coleman, emeritus professor of demography at Oxford University, told MailOnline that peoples' decision not to have children is 'understandable' due to poor conditions, such as climate change.