Montana's Flathead Lake unlikely to reach full pool as snowpack, streamflow forecasts decrease

Yahoo

08-06-2025

Flathead Lake is predicted to have low water levels this summer due to warm, dry conditions and a rapid meltout of the region's snowpack. (Photo by the Flathead Lake Biological Station of the University of Montana)
Flathead Lake is not expected to reach its full pool this summer and may end up more than a foot lower than normal within a month, due to abnormally hot and dry conditions in the region.
That's according to Energy Keepers Inc., the corporation operating the Se̓liš Ksanka Qĺispe̓ (SKQ) Dam on behalf of the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes.
'Unseasonably warm and dry conditions have significantly decreased water supply in the Flathead River Basin, and spring runoff is quickly receding, bringing river flows to extremely low levels,' according to an Energy Keepers press release.
Current forecasts show the lake will reach a maximum of around 2,892.3 feet by June 19, and then begin to slowly recede. Full pool for the lake is 2,893 feet.
With expectations of a potentially low water year, SKQ dam operators worked with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers this spring to raise the maximum water level required for flood control in order to capture as much spring runoff in the lake as possible. But despite the change, 'the melted snow remaining will not get Flathead Lake to full pool.'
'Our goal was to coordinate actions to increase the chance of refill as early as possible while balancing needs for flood risk management; however, it's also important to understand how much weather influences refill Pacific Northwest Lakes and reservoirs,' said Leah Hamilton, Northwestern Division Reservoir Control Center water regulator with the U.S. Army Corps. 'Every water year is different, and there is a lot of uncertainty in trying to accurately predict runoff several months into the future.'
Dam operators have maintained the minimum flows allowed in the dam's Federal Energy Regulatory Commission operating license since May 26.
According to a water supply forecast for Montana published last week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resource Conservation Science, warmer than normal temperatures throughout May 'spurred rapid snowmelt across the state,' a drastic shift from what forecasters were predicting earlier this year.
'Fast snowmelt and earlier than normal runoff in the month of May rapidly decreased snowpack statewide. This potentially corresponds to less available water later in the summer,' said Florence Miller, a hydrologist with NRCS. 'Water supply forecasts decreased from 70%-110% of normal streamflow forecasted for most of the state on May 1, to 50%-100% of streamflow forecasted on June 1.'
In the Flathead River Basin, snow water equivalent — the measure of how much water is contained in a snowpack — is just 59% of average for the beginning of June, compared to 83% at this time last year. The Kootenai River Basin is at 49%, the Upper Clark Fork at 65%, the Jefferson at 66% and the Upper Yellowstone at 63%.
The Bitterroot Basin is at just 27% of normal, also due to a rapidly melting snowpack.
'While much of our winter's snowpack has rapidly melted, a transition to cooler weather could help prolong the remaining snowpack and improve summer streamflow later in the season. Alternatively, a continuation of the hot, dry weather would continue the rapid runoff of this season's snowpack and further reduce summer streamflow outlooks,' the report states.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, conditions have worsened across much of the state over the last month. Compared to 2024, when 56% of the state was classified as experiencing drought, this year 82% of the state is experiencing drought conditions.
'Above normal precipitation during June is needed across the entire state,' the report states.
Brian Lipscomb, CEO of Energy Keepers, said the forecasted drought conditions for the remainder of the year, combined with several years of hot and dry weather, will bring cumulative impacts to Flathead Lake and those reliant on it — including Energy Keepers.
'These unprecedented dry conditions are not only taxing on resources, they are also extremely impactful to generation of energy from the SKQ facility,' said Lipscomb in a press release. 'Electricity generation from the SKQ facility will be 10 percent below normal for this year, add that to the two years that we have just experienced, and this will put us at 393 GWh of electricity generation below normal.'
That is enough electricity to power a city the size of Missoula for a year, according to Lipscomb.
Low water conditions are expected throughout the region.
Lake Koocanusa, formed by the Libby Dam on the Kootenai River, is currently forecast to have a water supply around 72% of average this summer, while Hungry Horse Reservoir, south of Glacier National Park, is forecasting a water supply around 75% of normal.
'It's a larger system, it's not just us,' said Rob McDonald, spokesperson for Energy Keepers and the CSKT. 'But (Flathead Lake) is what people care about, which we understand … The lake is the center of the community.'
Since severe drought conditions in 2023 led to record-low levels of Flathead Lake, Energy Keepers has worked to provide more frequent communications on weather and water forecasts and how they may impact dam operations and lake levels.
'Our goal is to push out information as quickly as possible so people can respond accordingly and manage what they need to manage,' McDonald said. 'But we are in year three of the warmest, driest three consecutive years on record. Let that sink in. Three driest, warmest years ever recorded.'
The 2023 drought led to conversations at the local, state and federal level about management of water resources in Montana.
During the 2025 legislative session, Montana Senate President Matt Regier, R-Kalispell, who represents a portion of the Flathead Valley, introduced a resolution supporting recreation on Flathead Lake, and encouraging decision makers to consider that aspect of use in management actions.
Regier said hearing about drought conditions and the potential lower lake levels early in the year makes a difference. He said many people felt caught off guard in 2023, raising questions of whether mismanagement of the lake was part of the equation.
An investigation by FERC found no problems with management of SKQ dam in 2023.
'I get it, if water is scarce, I get that,' Regier told the Daily Montanan. 'If this is a year that's more drought than usual, we have to talk about how do we balance tourism, economics, and recreation of Flathead Lake in the whole conversation.'
'When there's just no water, snowpack's down, it's a drought year, I think more people can understand that,' he said.
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