India as the world's fourth largest economy: What the numbers tell us
But what do these numbers mean for the broader population?
Guest: Partha Chatterjee, Dean of Academics at Shiv Nadar University, Delhi-NCR, and Professor, Department of Economics, Shiv Nadar University.
Host: Nivedita V
Edited by Jude Francis Weston
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India Today
an hour ago
- India Today
Can Bihar afford Nitish Kumar's free electricity poll promise?
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has promised free electricity up to 125 units per month, ahead of Assembly elections. Power subsidies already account for half of the state's growth budget or capital outlay. The state government had earmarked Rs 15,343 crore under the Mukhyamantri Vidyut Upbhogta Sahayta Yojana in it matters: With limited resources, Bihar may struggle to keep such welfare promises without worsening its financial health. The portion of capital outlay is poised to shift towards debt On July 17, Nitish Kumar announced ( ) that the state will offer 125 units of electricity free each month. He also announced plans to install rooftop solar panels for households over the next three years. The move comes ahead of the state elections and shows a growing trend across Indian politics: promising free goods or services to win votes. Freebies aren't new. But their scope is expanding. Delhi offers free power, up to 200 units. Karnataka pays women Rs 2,000 a month. Rajasthan distributed smartphones. Tamil Nadu gave away they cost state governments a fortune. The estimated cost of freebies and subsidies between 2023 and 2024 was around Rs 96,000 crore (2.2 per cent of the GSDP) in Maharashtra and Rs 53,700 crore (1.9 per cent) in Karnataka. In Bihar too, it was around Rs 20,000 crore (2.1 per cent of GSDP).States like Punjab, Jharkhand, and Rajasthan are already facing fiscal stress. In fact, NITI Aayog ranked Punjab last in fiscal health due to heavy picture: The question is not just about policy — it's about affordability. Bihar has a weak tax base and limited borrowing space. With growing welfare bills and falling revenues, can the state afford another guarantee? Around 2–3 per cent of the country's population, mostly urban middle-class citizens, pay income tax and are growing frustrated with the they said: 'We will ensure 125 units of power are free,' Nitish Kumar said. The Reserve Bank of India in its State Finances: A Study of Budgets of 2024-25 report noted that such spending could crowd out the resources available to them and "hamper their capacity to build critical social and economic infrastructure'.- EndsTune InMust Watch
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First Post
3 hours ago
- First Post
Is Pakistan heading from rupee crash to blockchain blunder? Minister visits El Salvador for crypto push
With its economy on the brink, Pakistan is turning to cryptocurrency not as a choice, but as a last-ditch gamble to escape financial collapse read more With a faltering economy, rising inflation, geopolitical instability and a foreign exchange crisis, Pakistan is turning increasingly toward cryptocurrency and blockchain technology as a potential economic life raft. The country's recent high-profile engagements—particularly with El Salvador and the Donald Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLF)—signal a radical policy shift that many see as a desperate embrace of digital assets to stave off economic collapse. But does this emerging crypto love offer salvation, or is it a risky gamble by a nation with limited options? STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD A deep economic crisis Pakistan's economy is in dire straits. As of April 2025, the country held just $10 billion in foreign exchange reserves—barely enough to cover three months of imports., a News18 report said. With over $131 billion in external debt and ongoing tensions with India, including military engagements and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan faces severe risks to agricultural productivity and macroeconomic stability. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been keeping the country afloat with a $7 billion bailout package. However, experts warn that even this lifeline could snap if geopolitical risks escalate. The fragility of Pakistan's economy is an open secret, with a piece in the Financial Times warning that it could collapse anytime despite the lifeline from the IMF. In this economic climate, traditional tools have limited utility. Inflation peaked at 38 per cent in 2023, while the rupee has lost 165 per cent of its value since 2017, a study conducted by the Asian Development Bank said. For a population whose savings are rapidly being eroded, the appeal of decentralised financial systems has grown dramatically. Rising crypto adoption despite official bans Despite an official ban on cryptocurrency trading, Pakistan ranks 8th globally in crypto adoption. Citizens are said to hold between $20–25 billion in digital assets, driven by desperation for financial security in a rapidly depreciating fiat system, Geo News reported. Crypto assets have effectively become a parallel financial system for many Pakistanis. In April 2023, the government doubled down on its prohibition, citing capital flight risks. Nevertheless, crypto continues to thrive in grey markets as Pakistanis turn to Bitcoin and stablecoins to preserve wealth and transact across borders. This popular adoption is happening against the will of regulators but reflects a grassroots shift toward decentralised finance. For many, crypto is no longer speculative; it is essential. Governmental shifts from opposition to adoption After years of resistance, the Pakistani government is formalising its stance on digital assets. The establishment of the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority and plans to launch a Central Bank Digital Currency by this year mark a significant policy reversal. Further legitimising this shift is the Pakistan Crypto Council, led by Bilal Bin Saqib, who recently signed Letters of Intent with both El Salvador and World Liberty Financial. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The El Salvador partnership is particularly symbolic. El Salvador was the first nation to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. With its Bitcoin reserves now valued at over $760 million—nearly triple their original investment—Pakistan sees a model of financial sovereignty and growth through crypto. Saqib described the partnership as a 'strategic relationship rooted in innovation, inclusion, and shared learning,' adding that El Salvador's 'bold Bitcoin experiment has inspired governments around the world.' But here is the catch El Salvador's experiment with Bitcoin as legal tender has failed. The country has reversing its decision to make Bitcoin a mandatory form of payment. While the initiative aimed to revolutionise the financial system and boost the economy, it faced significant challenges. Bitcoin adoption rates remained low, concerned over volatility reigned supreme, and technical issues with the Chivo wallet could never really be fixed. The question is this: Is Pakistan really looking up to the right example to emulate cryptocurrency in the country? There is Trump-backed WLF deal too More controversial is the deal with WLF, a DeFi platform backed by US President Donald Trump's family. According to the Pakistani Ministry of Finance, WLF has committed to accelerating blockchain innovation and stablecoin adoption in Pakistan. High-level meetings took place between executives of the World Ledger Foundation (WLF) and Pakistan's most influential institutions, including the army chief, prime minister, deputy prime minister and the governor of the State Bank. These discussions led to an agreement that outlines key areas of cooperation aimed at advancing Pakistan's digital finance ecosystem. Central to the deal is the testing of blockchain-based financial products through regulatory sandboxes, allowing for innovation under controlled conditions. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The agreement also includes the tokenisation of real-world assets such as real estate, enabling greater liquidity and transparency. Further, it seeks to expand the use of stablecoins for cross-border remittances and trade to reduce costs and improve efficiency. In addition, the partnership will focus on the development of decentralised finance (DeFi) infrastructure, laying the groundwork for a more inclusive and resilient financial system. Crypto: A lifeline or a gamble? The optimism from the government and crypto leaders is palpable, but this rapid embrace of digital currencies is not without serious risks. Pakistan faces several critical risks as it moves toward deeper integration with cryptocurrency initiatives. The country remains in the early stages of developing a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework, creating a regulatory vacuum that could allow for unchecked growth. Without strong oversight, the rapid adoption of digital assets might facilitate fraud, capital flight and money laundering. Another major concern is the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Sudden price crashes could wipe out billions in perceived wealth, potentially triggering widespread financial panic and undermining public trust in emerging financial technologies. Geopolitically, Pakistan's close alignment with the Trump-backed WLF may carry unintended consequences. A shift in political leadership in Washington could weaken support, while global institutions such as the IMF—already critical of Pakistan's fiscal management—may view the partnership as a destabilising move. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Additionally, an overreliance on cryptocurrency as a singular economic solution risks sidelining broader, long-term economic reforms. This could detract from critical efforts to strengthen traditional industries, enhance export capacity and build a more resilient and diversified economy. Yet, despite these risks, Pakistan's limited options are pushing it toward cryptocurrency. As traditional finance mechanisms fail to meet citizens' needs, the decentralised economy offers both hope and hazard. Is crypto Pakistan's last hope? At this moment, it appears that Pakistan is not just experimenting with cryptocurrency—it is banking on it. The deals with El Salvador and WLF reflect a government strategy that increasingly sees crypto as a pillar of future financial stability, not a passing trend. However, this step is born more out of necessity than choice. Soaring inflation, geopolitical pressures and a weak rupee have made crypto a survival tool for citizens and an innovation imperative for the state. Pakistan's economy is not at the mercy of cryptocurrency—yet. But it is undeniably tethered to it and the government's growing entanglement with blockchain and DeFi may determine whether the country navigates through crisis or plunges deeper into instability. In a world where digital assets are reshaping global finance, Pakistan may be among the first developing nations to bet its economic future on the blockchain. Whether that bet pays off—or explodes—is a question that only time, policy clarity and global cooperation can answer. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD But if Pakistan must go the crypto way, is El Salvador the model it wants to follow?
The Wire
4 hours ago
- The Wire
'NITI Aayog No Substitute,' Says Ex-Bureaucrat as Govt Moves 9 Flagship Schemes Out of Usual Appraisal System
'By doing away with such an appraisal process, and bringing in NITI Aayog, the government is blocking doors to a professional socio-economic appraisal of schemes – something that is essential.' An illustration on the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission's official site. New Delhi: Ayushman Bharat, Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana, and PM Kisan, are among nine of the Narendra Modi government's flagship schemes that the government has decided to keep outside the ambit of the ongoing appraisal process for central sector programmes, Economic Times has reported. Speaking to The Wire, a former secretary in the finance department has called this a move by the government to block doors to a professional socio-economic appraisal of schemes. The report says that in a letter dated July 4, the Department of Expenditure asked the respective ministries and departments to exclude the schemes from the standard appraisal process. This exclusion will remain in place for the next five years, starting April 1, 2026, the report said. These schemes, the letter said, will be evaluated and appraised in detail by the planning think-tank NITI Aayog's Development Monitoring and Evaluation Office. An unnamed senior official quoted by ET noted that this is because some of these schemes will need "some structural changes." "Niti Aayog has been tasked to do the detailed exercise so there is no duplicity of efforts,' the official told ET. The full list of the schemes are: Ayushman Bharat, Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana, PM Kisan, Ujjwala Yojana, PM Jan Dhan Yojana, PM Stand Up India, PM Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana, PM Suraksha Bima Yojana, and a scheme under the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade to refund central GST and integrated GST to industrial units in northeastern and Himalayan states. In addition, schemes related to the Department of Space and the Department of Atomic Energy and the National e-Vidhan scheme are also outside the ambit of the appraisal process. A former secretary in the finance department told The Wire that the NITI Aayog is no substitute for an established system of appraisal. The former bureaucrat said that the established practice is that a Public Investment Board (PIB) headed by the expenditure secretary appraises all new schemes that involve large investments. The erstwhile Planning Commission – under the Manmohan Singh-led United Progressive Alliance government – used to have a Project Appraisal Division (PAD) that had expertise in evaluating such schemes and projects. The PAD would give inputs to the PIB for appraisal. The PIB's recommendations on the scheme would then be looked at by the Cabinet for a final decision. The former IAS officer, who headed the PAD and PIB, noted that PAD and PIB inputs added value to schemes. "While recommending a scheme to the Cabinet with improvements, I remember setting apart a small percentage of the investment for independent social audits to provide feedback during implementation," he noted. He also added that NITI Aayog "woefully lacks the required expertise, as PAD used to conduct social-cost social-benefit appraisal, which NITI Aayog is not in a position to do." "By doing away with such an appraisal process, and bringing in NITI Aayog, the government is blocking doors to a professional socio-economic appraisal of schemes – something that is essential," he added. The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.
