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RBC Capital Sticks to Their Buy Rating for Eldorado Gold (EGO)

RBC Capital Sticks to Their Buy Rating for Eldorado Gold (EGO)

RBC Capital analyst Michael Siperco maintained a Buy rating on Eldorado Gold on July 7 and set a price target of $27.00. The company's shares closed yesterday at $19.89.
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According to TipRanks, Siperco is a 5-star analyst with an average return of 22.1% and a 64.71% success rate. Siperco covers the Basic Materials sector, focusing on stocks such as Torex Gold Resources, Coeur Mining, and Wesdome Gold Mines.
Currently, the analyst consensus on Eldorado Gold is a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $22.86, representing a 14.93% upside. In a report released on June 24, National Bank also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a C$40.50 price target.
The company has a one-year high of $21.79 and a one-year low of $13.29. Currently, Eldorado Gold has an average volume of 2.02M.
Based on the recent corporate insider activity of 280 insiders, corporate insider sentiment is negative on the stock. This means that over the past quarter there has been an increase of insiders selling their shares of EGO in relation to earlier this year.
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1: Introduction: Eldorado Gold is an attractive mid-cap gold mining company, but it comes with risks. As of mid-2025, Eldorado Gold has a market capitalization of approximately $4.3 billion, classifying the company as a mid-cap gold mining company. For investors wondering whether investing in Eldorado Gold is worthwhile, let's examine the business in details. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Sign with EGO. Eldorado Gold operates several producing mines in countries such as Turkey, Greece, and Canada. While it is not on the same scale as global giants like Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) or Barrick Gold (NYSE:B), the company's smaller size offers greater growth potential, albeit at a higher risk profile. Eldorado Gold primarily operates as a gold mining company, with gold revenue constituting nearly 87% of its total revenue in 1Q25. However, with the addition of the Skouries mine, the company plans to diversify its revenues by incorporating copper by mid-2026, starting with the production of gold and copper concentrate in 1Q26. Eldorado Gold has a riskier investment profile, primarily due to its operations in Greece. The one-year chart comparison below shows that EGO is underperforming relative to KGC and AEM, but it performs similarly to its large-cap peers, NEM and B. The completion of the Skouries mine next year is crucial. Eldorado Gold has encountered significant financial difficulties in the past, primarily due to its troubled Skouries project in Greece. The company invested over $1 billion but was unable to commence production because construction was halted by illegal delays and permitting issues caused by a leftist government. By 2017, the Skouries project was placed on care and maintenance, resulting in millions of dollars in annual losses for the company. As financial pressures mounted and gold prices remained low, well below $2,000 per ounce, Eldorado warned that it could no longer sustain the project. Furthermore, the situation was worsened by a major crisis at the K??lada? mine in Turkey, which put additional pressure on the company's finances and eroded investor confidence. In 2017, Eldorado Gold announced that gold recovery rates from its heap leach process at the K??lada? mine had dropped sharply. This unexpected decline compelled the company to suspend operations and abandon a costly mill project, resulting in a severe impact on its cash flow. However, the company demonstrated resilience by optimizing heap leaching, improving operational efficiency, and maintaining production at K??lada? in the 45,000-ounce range, thereby overcoming this financial hurdle. In 2023, the company reached a pivotal moment by obtaining new permits, primarily for the Skouries project, and securing a 680 million loan at a favorable interest rate. The Skouries mine is scheduled to commence production of gold and copper in 1Q26, with commercial output anticipated by mid-2026. The target for that year is to produce up to 155,000 ounces of gold and 60 million pounds of copper. With gold prices exceeding $3,300 per ounce and a positive outlook for copper, Eldorado Gold is well-positioned to increase its production significantly in 2026. A review of quarterly gold production indicates we can anticipate a production increase of about 20% or more in 2026. Eldorado Gold currently has four producing mines: Epemcukuru (Turkey, high-grade underground gold), K??lada? (Turkey, heap leach gold), Olympias (Greece, gold, silver, lead, and zinc), and Lamaque (Canada, underground gold). According to the data below, production at Olympias decreased year-over-year, while it increased at K??lada?. Efemcukuru and Lamaque were essentially the same. The significant factor that propelled Eldorado Gold to record levels is the surge in gold prices that skyrocketed in 2025. Upon examining the quarterly gold prices received by the company, we can observe a significant increase. The gold price is expected to reach $3,180 per ounce in the second quarter of 2025. AISC (All-In-Sustaining Costs) is a critical metric that provides investors with a clear and standardized view of the total expenses involved in producing an ounce of gold. Eldorado's All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) reached a record high of $1,559 per ounce in 1Q25, representing a notable increase from $1,262 in the same quarter last year, as shown in the graph above. This rise can be attributed to higher labor costs, increased capital spending, and operational challenges at Olympias, where costs soared to $2,842 per ounce due to processing inefficiencies. Incidently, AISC was also elevated at Lamaque due to deeper mining. However, as the Skouries project moves closer to production and additional efficiency initiatives take effect, Eldorado should be able to significantly reduce its AISC, potentially aligning it more closely with its peers. The gold price is expected to remain strong in the coming years due to global economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions. This leads to a positive outlook for Eldorado Gold. As central banks continue to diversify their reserves and investors seek safe-haven assets amid market volatility, demand for gold is expected to remain elevated. Furthermore, copper prices have surged recently, with U.S. futures reaching record highs (~$5.64/lb), driven by a 50% tariff announcement and low global inventories. The gold price has encountered strong resistance since April 2025, and it is uncertain whether it will continue to rise. Interest rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks will play a significant role. If rates decline as expected, gold could see further gains due to lower opportunity costs. This scenario is the most likely. The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates two more times in 2025. Additionally, increasing demand from emerging markets and continued production constraints may support higher prices. While short-term fluctuations are unavoidable, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, especially if economic instability or currency devaluation persists. Overall, gold is poised to retain its value as a hedge against uncertainty. 2: Eldorado Gold: A good financial profile is reassuring. Eldorado Gold had a strong start to 2025, demonstrating solid financial and operational momentum in the first quarter. What stood out was that the revenue increased 38% year-over-year to $355.25 million, driven by record gold prices, despite lower gold production. The company reported $72.40 million in net earnings. This quarter emphasizes that Eldorado is transforming into a more stable, high-potential mid-tier gold producer. Due to the ongoing construction of the Skouries mine, the company reported negative free cash flow of $26.08 million in 1Q25. However, with $978.14 million in cash and cash equivalents, Eldorado demonstrates substantial financial strength, particularly as it continues to develop the Skouries project, which is now over 66% complete and is scheduled to produce commercially in mid-2026. Finally, Eldorado Gold maintains a good debt profile. As of 1Q25, total debt stands at around $940.97 million, largely tied to long-term notes and project-specific financing for Skouries, which is non-recourse to the company. With $978.14 million in cash and a further $241 million in undrawn credit, Eldorado's liquidity exceeds $1.2 billion. Low leverage ratios and prudent debt management reflect a conservative approach, giving the company financial flexibility to fund growth while maintaining strong balance sheet discipline. Below is shown the quarterly debt versus cash history: 3: Conclusion: Investing in EGO is a sensible decision; however, the stock appears to be overbought. Investing in Eldorado Gold can be a wise long-term decision due to its strong fundamentals, promising production outlook, particularly with the Skouries mine set to start production in 2026, and favorable market conditions for gold. However, caution is advised in the short term due to market volatility. Current technical indicators suggest that the stock is slightly overbought, meaning recent gains may have exceeded its intrinsic value. This could result in a short-term pullback or a consolidation phase, which is supported by the technical analysis below. As a result, investors might consider waiting for a more favorable entry point or employing a staggered investment strategy to reduce risk. It's also essential to monitor broader market sentiment, geopolitical factors, and trends in commodity prices to determine the best timing for investment. Overall, while Eldorado Gold remains a promising asset, disciplined buying and careful risk management are recommended at this point. 4: Technical Analysis: Ascending Wedge Pattern. Eldorado Gold appears to be forming an ascending wedge pattern, with resistance near $22 and support around $20. While the stock has been climbing steadily, this pattern often suggests a potential bearish breakdown, especially as momentum begins to Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55 and gradually decreasingnot a red flag just yet, but it could signal early signs of weakness. If this trend continues, we might see a breakdown in the next couple of to the uncertainty is the broader context: geopolitical tensions are high, and the Federal Reserve's next move regarding interest rates is uncertain. Any surprises in this area, whether a rate cut or a decision to hold, could impact the gold price and subsequently affect EGO.I'll be closely monitoring for any break below $20 or signs of weakening volume, as this could shift the outlook from cautious optimism to increased downside risk. With a support level of around $20, now may be a good time to consider adding to your position, starting at $20 (50MA), with an expectation of a possible breakdown to $17-$19. Additionally, selling a portion of your shares may be wise once the stock price rises between $21 and $ 22.50. Selling part of your position using the LIFO (Last In, First Out) method is essential, particularly if the stock shows a false bullish breakout followed immediately by a quick and prolonged retracement. Please refer to the chart above for additional information. It is essential to take partial short-term profits using the LIFO method. Consider selling about half of your position for short-term trading while keeping a modest core long-term investment. Warning: The technical analysis chart should be updated regularly to ensure accuracy. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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