The surprising way San Francisco has become more affordable in the last 20 years

San Francisco Chronicle​

3 days ago

Just 1 in 5 San Francisco households can afford to buy a mid-priced home in their city, where the typical price tag is about $1.29 million. But back in 2005, only 1 in 10 households could afford a mid-priced home.
That's according to an analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau and real estate company Zillow. The Chronicle calculated how many households could buy a mid-priced home — including co-ops and condominiums — while keeping their housing payments below 30% of their income.
The value of a typical San Francisco home grew by a whopping 66%, from $780,000 to $1.29 million, over the past two decades. But incomes have more than doubled over the same period, from about $58,000 to $127,000 in 2023 (roughly $136,000 in 2025 dollars).
While the data indicates more San Franciscans can afford to own a home, the rapid increase in incomes since 2005 is due in part to many of the city's lower-income residents leaving, often pushed out by the city's high housing costs. And homeownership is still out of reach for the vast majority of San Francisco households, as measured by income levels.
The Chronicle's analysis was based on Zillow's typical home value for each neighborhood in June 2005 and June 2025, assuming a 20% down payment, the San Francisco property tax rate for those years and the average 30-year mortgage rate for those months. The income estimates for 2025 were based on the Census Bureau's 2023 estimates, adjusted for inflation to 2025. The analysis did not include insurance costs or homeowners association fees, which have climbed rapidly in recent years.
The most affordable neighborhoods in 2025 are generally located in and around downtown San Francisco, with more than 40% of households able to afford the typical home in the Tenderloin, Lower Nob Hill and Civic Center. Those neighborhoods, where the bulk of the city's new housing over the past two decades has been concentrated, have also become affordable to many more households since 2005.
Only one neighborhood is affordable to a smaller share of San Francisco households than it was in 2005 — Hunters Point, where housing costs have grown at a faster rate than any other neighborhood, though the neighborhood has relatively low home values.
The fact that more households can afford a home doesn't help the families that have already left San Francisco. Several economic changes to the region — the tech boom, the 2008 financial crisis, the pandemic — resulted in lower-income households moving out and, in some cases, higher-income households moving in.
Of course, not everyone who can buy a home wants to. Renting a home in the Bay Area is often much more affordable than purchasing one, and not everyone wants to live in downtown San Francisco, where most of the for-sale homes are condominiums. And then there's the issue of affording a $300,000 down payment, which is much harder for a first-time homebuyer than someone coming with cash from a previous sale.
On the other hand, many San Francisco households have decided that owning a home in the city is worth exceeding the 'affordability' threshold. About a third of San Francisco households with a mortgage pay at least 30% of their income toward housing costs, Census Bureau data shows.