One of Wall Street's biggest bulls sees tech powering an 11% gain in stocks through the rest of 2025
Christopher Harvey, the chief US equity strategist at Wells Fargo, predicts that the S&P 500 will reach 7,007 by the end of the year. His forecast — now one of the most optimistic on Wall Street — implies the benchmark index climbing another 11% from its current levels, or a 19% gain for the year.
Speaking to Bloomberg about his thesis on Monday, Harvey pointed to a handful of reasons that would keep the market climbing higher:
AI boom. Mega-cap tech stocks will likely keep climbing higher, Harvey said. He brushed off concerns that the hype over artificial intelligence resembled the dot-com bubble in the 1990s, noting that many companies today have stronger fundamentals.
Large-cap tech and AI stocks have been on a tear since their low in early April, shortly after President Donald Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF is up 41% from its April 8 low.
"What we're seeing is the winners continue to win. The uber-cap companies have the higher margins, are gaining more market share. There is a real secular trade in AI that will continue," Harvey said.
Strong mergers and acquisition activity. Dealmaking has remained relatively strong on Wall Street, another factor that should support the market, Harvey said.
Strategic M&A activity was up 11% year-over-year from January through May, according to an analysis from the consultancy Bain & Company.
"We think that M&A will continue to be very, very healthy up and down the capitalization," Harvey added.
The US consumer remains strong. Americans keep spending, despite concerns that tariff-related price increases could shut off an important engine of the economy. Consumers ramped up their spending more than expected last month, with retail sales rising 0.6%, according to the US Census Bureau.
The Fed is likely to cut interest rates. The central bank looks on track to e ventually lower interest rates despite hesitation stemming from President Donald Trump's tariffs in recent months. Investors are pricing in two or three rate cuts from the Fed by the end of 2025, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Those bullish factors override any concerns investors have over the market, Harvey said, pointing to concerns about the impact of tariffs and Trump's escalating feud with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Investors are worried that tariffs could raise inflation while hampering economic growth, and that Trump could interfere with the Fed's independence, which could stoke inflation down the line.
"We had seen Trump 1.0. We know his style," Harvey said, referring to the belief that the president goes hard on his policies before softening his tone.
Harvey was one of the few strategists on Wall Street who stuck to his original S&P 500 target for the year, even during the historic sell-off in April as Trump unveiled his slate of tariffs. Forecasters like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan lowered their stock forecasts and lifted their recession odds, before reversing once Trump paused most tariffs.
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The Wall Street Journal has a big report out today with some more details of those plans — and details on how delicate negotiations are on even thinner ice, as President Trump keeps wanting more. The report said the EU got a "surprise" when US officials said Trump would want a higher baseline tariff in any deal, likely north of 15%, after months of talks around a 10% baseline. That apparently prompted Germany, Europe's largest economy, to swing to more of an alignment with France, which has been pushing a harder line throughout the negotiations. 'All options are on the table,' a German official said. The official said there was still time to negotiate a deal but added, 'If they want war, they will get war.' More from the report: Read more here. We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) how the EU is readying its plans for retaliation in case a trade deal with the US fails. The Wall Street Journal has a big report out today with some more details of those plans — and details on how delicate negotiations are on even thinner ice, as President Trump keeps wanting more. The report said the EU got a "surprise" when US officials said Trump would want a higher baseline tariff in any deal, likely north of 15%, after months of talks around a 10% baseline. That apparently prompted Germany, Europe's largest economy, to swing to more of an alignment with France, which has been pushing a harder line throughout the negotiations. 'All options are on the table,' a German official said. The official said there was still time to negotiate a deal but added, 'If they want war, they will get war.' More from the report: Read more here. Stellantis warns of $2.7B loss as tariffs bite Big Three automaker Stellantis (STLA) warned on Monday that it expects a 2.3 billion euro ($2.7 billion) net loss for the first half of 2025, hit by restructuring costs, ebbing sales, and an initial hit from US tariffs. The Chrysler maker's US-listed shares slipped nearly 2% in premarket, mirroring a drop in its stock in Milan. Reuters reports: Read more here. Big Three automaker Stellantis (STLA) warned on Monday that it expects a 2.3 billion euro ($2.7 billion) net loss for the first half of 2025, hit by restructuring costs, ebbing sales, and an initial hit from US tariffs. The Chrysler maker's US-listed shares slipped nearly 2% in premarket, mirroring a drop in its stock in Milan. Reuters reports: Read more here. EU to prepare its retaliation plan as US hardens its stance on trade talks EU negotiators are scrambling to make a trade agreement with the US as the Aug. 1 tariff deadline closes in. But they are also stepping up preparations to strike back if the two sides fail to secure a deal. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. EU negotiators are scrambling to make a trade agreement with the US as the Aug. 1 tariff deadline closes in. But they are also stepping up preparations to strike back if the two sides fail to secure a deal. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Lutnick 'confident' US will get tariffs deal done with EU before Aug. 1 deadline WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he was confident the United States can secure a trade deal with the European Union, but August 1 is a hard deadline for tariffs to kick in. Lutnick said he had just gotten off the phone with European trade negotiators and there was "plenty of room" for agreement. "These are the two biggest trading partners in the world, talking to each other. We'll get a deal done. I am confident we'll get a deal done," Lutnick said in an interview with CBS' "Face the Nation." President Donald Trump threatened on July 12 to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major U.S. trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. Lutnick said that was a hard deadline. "Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1," he said on CBS. Read more here WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he was confident the United States can secure a trade deal with the European Union, but August 1 is a hard deadline for tariffs to kick in. Lutnick said he had just gotten off the phone with European trade negotiators and there was "plenty of room" for agreement. "These are the two biggest trading partners in the world, talking to each other. We'll get a deal done. I am confident we'll get a deal done," Lutnick said in an interview with CBS' "Face the Nation." President Donald Trump threatened on July 12 to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major U.S. trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. Lutnick said that was a hard deadline. "Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1," he said on CBS. Read more here Trump's tariffs are already shaping the holiday shopping season NEW YORK (AP) — With summer in full swing in the United States, retail executives are sweating a different season. It's less than 22 weeks before Christmas, a time when businesses that make and sell consumer goods usually nail down their holiday orders and prices. But President Donald Trump's vacillating trade policies have complicated those end-of-year plans. Balsam Hill, which sells artificial trees and other decorations online, expects to publish fewer and thinner holiday catalogs because the featured products keep changing with the tariff rates the president sets, postpones and revises. 'The uncertainty has led us to spend all our time trying to rejigger what we're ordering, where we're bringing it in, when it's going to get here,' Mac Harman, CEO of Balsam Hill parent company Balsam Brands, said. 'We don't know which items we're going to have to put in the catalog or not." Months of confusion over which foreign countries' goods may become more expensive to import has left a question mark over the holiday shopping season. U.S. retailers often begin planning for the winter holidays in January and typically finalize the bulk of their orders by the end of June. The seesawing tariffs already have factored into their calculations. Read more here NEW YORK (AP) — With summer in full swing in the United States, retail executives are sweating a different season. It's less than 22 weeks before Christmas, a time when businesses that make and sell consumer goods usually nail down their holiday orders and prices. But President Donald Trump's vacillating trade policies have complicated those end-of-year plans. Balsam Hill, which sells artificial trees and other decorations online, expects to publish fewer and thinner holiday catalogs because the featured products keep changing with the tariff rates the president sets, postpones and revises. 'The uncertainty has led us to spend all our time trying to rejigger what we're ordering, where we're bringing it in, when it's going to get here,' Mac Harman, CEO of Balsam Hill parent company Balsam Brands, said. 'We don't know which items we're going to have to put in the catalog or not." Months of confusion over which foreign countries' goods may become more expensive to import has left a question mark over the holiday shopping season. U.S. retailers often begin planning for the winter holidays in January and typically finalize the bulk of their orders by the end of June. The seesawing tariffs already have factored into their calculations. Read more here Hawaii coffee growers say Trump tariffs may curb demand (Bloomberg) — Hawaiian coffee farmers have a message for President Donald Trump: Steep tariffs on major exporters such as Brazil will end up hurting them, too. Hawaii at first glance might seem the obvious beneficiary of tariffs on coffee. It is the only state in the country where the tropical goods grow, with the vast majority of java imbibed by Americans imported from South America and Vietnam. Higher priced foreign imports should, in theory, make the island state's products comparatively more affordable. But growers say the opposite is true: rising prices across the board will hit consumers already struggling with inflation, curbing demand on everything from popular everyday roasts available at grocery stores to luxury Kona beans. While the discourse around trade and Trump's 'Buy American' mantra could draw attention to Hawaiian goods, the upshot for the state's farmers is that 'tariffs will probably will hurt us as much as it would hurt the mainland roasters,' said Suzanne Shriner, the vice president of the Kona Coffee Farmers Association and the president of Lions Gate Farms. Read more here (Bloomberg) — Hawaiian coffee farmers have a message for President Donald Trump: Steep tariffs on major exporters such as Brazil will end up hurting them, too. Hawaii at first glance might seem the obvious beneficiary of tariffs on coffee. It is the only state in the country where the tropical goods grow, with the vast majority of java imbibed by Americans imported from South America and Vietnam. Higher priced foreign imports should, in theory, make the island state's products comparatively more affordable. But growers say the opposite is true: rising prices across the board will hit consumers already struggling with inflation, curbing demand on everything from popular everyday roasts available at grocery stores to luxury Kona beans. While the discourse around trade and Trump's 'Buy American' mantra could draw attention to Hawaiian goods, the upshot for the state's farmers is that 'tariffs will probably will hurt us as much as it would hurt the mainland roasters,' said Suzanne Shriner, the vice president of the Kona Coffee Farmers Association and the president of Lions Gate Farms. Read more here
