Red Sox at Phillies Prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends, and stats for July 21
This is the first meeting of the season between Philly and Boston as both are coming off series losses out of the All-Star break.
The Phillies dropped two out of three to the Angels, while the Red Sox did the same versus the Cubs. Boston won on Sunday to avoid the sweep, 6-1 compared to Philly who lost yesterday, 8-2, to drop the series.
Let's dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two. We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Red Sox at Phillies
Date: Monday, July 21, 2025
Time: 6:45PM EST
Site: Citizens Bank Park
City: Philadelphia, PA
Network/Streaming: NESN, NBCSP
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Red Sox at the Phillies
The latest odds as of Monday:
Moneyline: Red Sox (+172), Phillies (-207)
Spread: Phillies -1.5
Total: 8.0 runs
Probable starting pitchers for Red Sox at Phillies
Pitching matchup for July 21, 2025: Walker Buehler vs. Zack Wheeler
Red Sox: Walker Buehler, (6-6, 6.12 ERA)
Last outing: 6.0 Innings Pitched, 3 Earned Runs Allowed, 5 Hits Allowed, 3 Walks, and 2 StrikeoutsPhillies: Zack Wheeler, (9-3, 2.36 ERA)
Last outing: 6.0 Innings Pitched, 4 Earned Runs Allowed, 6 Hits Allowed, 1 Walk, and 6 Strikeouts
Red Sox: Walker Buehler, (6-6, 6.12 ERA)
Last outing: 6.0 Innings Pitched, 3 Earned Runs Allowed, 5 Hits Allowed, 3 Walks, and 2 Strikeouts
Phillies: Zack Wheeler, (9-3, 2.36 ERA)
Last outing: 6.0 Innings Pitched, 4 Earned Runs Allowed, 6 Hits Allowed, 1 Walk, and 6 Strikeouts
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Expert picks & predictions for tonight's game between the Red Sox and the Phillies
'Boston has the third-toughest remaining strength of schedule (.516 winning %). Let's look at the first 15 games of the second half for Boston:
3 road games at the Cubs (1-2 record)
3 road games at the Phillies
3 home games vs the Dodgers
3 road games at the Twins
3 home games vs the Astros
That schedule alone could put them behind and make a +105 to -115 bet became -200 to -300 quickly. During the All-Star break, I played Boston at plus-money to miss the postseason and think it's still a good bet after losing two of three to the Cubs.'
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Monday's game between the Red Sox and the Phillies:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Philadelphia Phillies on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Boston Red Sox at +1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 8.0.
Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC.
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Red Sox at Phillies
The Phillies have an 18-14 record in series openers this season
The Under is 4-0-1 in the Red Sox's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 13-6 when Wheeler starts this season
Boston is 9-7 when Buehler pitches this season
If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
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