Air defence missiles among weaponry U.S. is withholding from Ukraine, AP sources say
WASHINGTON — The Trump administration will hold back delivering to Ukraine some air defence missiles, precision-guided artillery and other weapons as part of its announced pause to some arms shipments amid U.S. concerns that its own stockpiles have declined too much, officials said.
The details on the weapons in some of the paused deliveries were confirmed by a U.S. official and former national security official familiar with the matter. They both requested anonymity to discuss what is are being held up as the Pentagon has yet to provide details.
The pause includes some shipments of Patriot missiles, precision-guided GMLRS, Hellfire missiles and Howitzer rounds.
Elbridge Colby, Defense Department undersecretary for policy, said the decision to halt some weapons comes as Pentagon officials have aimed to provide Trump 'with robust options to continue military aid to Ukraine, consistent with his goal of bringing this tragic war to an end.'
'At the same time, the department is rigorously examining and adapting its approach to achieving this objective while also preserving U.S. forces' readiness for administration defence priorities,' Colby added in a statement.
Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, blasted the move that came just days after Russians forces launched one of the biggest air assaults on Ukraine since it launched the war more than three years ago.
'U.S. made air defence systems, including the Patriot platform, are the centerpiece of Ukraine's defences against Russian strikes. They work. They save lives every day,' the Ohio Democrat said. 'But there are no parallel defensive alternatives for Ukraine if the U.S. stops supplying these vital munitions.'
One of the officials said other weaponry being held up includes the AIM-7 Sparrow — a medium-range radar homing air-to-air missile — as well as shorter-range Stinger missiles and AT-4 grenade launchers.
The Pentagon review that determined that stocks were too low on some weapons previously pledged comes just over a week after Trump helped forge a ceasefire between Israel and Iran to end their 12-day conflict.
The U.S. has provided provided air defence support to Israel, Qatar and other Mideast neighbors. It's unclear if that conflict had any impact on the Trump's move in Ukraine.
The U.S. deployed air defences systems as it knocked down an Iranian ballistic missile assault last month launched on the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The retaliatory strike from Tehran against the U.S. military installation came days after Trump ordered a barrage of strikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites.
Lisa Mascaro and Aamer Madhani, The Associated Press
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Consider the following data: • 65+ population: 63 million today, 76 million by 2035 • Median age: 38.5 today; it was 30 in 1980, 35 in 2000, and is set to reach 43 by 2050 • Prime-age workers (25-54): Shrinking as percentage of the population every year starting in 2035. As we saw in Japan, we can foresee a federal debt-to-GDP ratio in the triple digits at a time of rising dependency ratios and a massive volume of contingent liabilities as the retiree wave now underway gathers serious momentum. This promises a future of deflation/disinflation, financial instability, rising personal savings rates and attendant sluggish economic growth, depressed rates of return on capital, and lower — not higher — interest rates. Yes, the White House will end up with the lower interest rates it seeks, but not for the reasons it is anticipating. I have been pounding the table on debt dynamics for two decades, but what's about to unfold in the future makes the present look like a dress rehearsal. It isn't just a future of slowing population growth, but one where the pace within the working-age cohort will soften the most. In the next decade, we are destined to see the average annual growth1 in the 25-54 breadwinner age category ease to just +0.6%. But the 65+ group is expected to expand by nearly +2.0%, and by more than +3.5% for the 75+ age cohort. By 2035, the number of people aged 25 to 54 will rise by 8 million (131 million to 139 million), but the 65-and-older category will surge by 13 million (to 76 million from 63 million). At that time, there will only be 1.8 people in the prime working-age labor force to support every retiree, from over 2.0 currently. How will that exactly work when it comes to funding Social Security under its current structure? Never mind that the expected life expectancy when 'entitlements' were created by FDR in the 1930s was 60 years of age, not 80 and rising as is the case now. What is long forgotten here, as this deficit and debt infrastructure gets further built up in this Big, Beautiful Bill is that the median age of the U.S. population is now nearly 40! More than half the population is 40 or older! In 1970, it was 28. In 1980, it was 30. In 2020, it was 38. Like I said — we are turning Japanese. Meanwhile, what this means for the debt-to-GDP ratio is that the denominator is going to stagnate while the numerator explodes. When your workforce stagnates while your retiree population explodes to the upside, the arithmetic becomes terminal. Shouldn't that at least be a footnote in this budget bill? Isn't it a crime to keep the truth from the general public who don't have access to the data like I do? Book 'em, Danno! Meanwhile, the consensus and the Fed continue to fret about inflation. They're looking backward, not forward. Japan's been teaching this lesson for three decades, but nobody's paying attention. Aging populations don't generate inflation — they generate deflation, savings gluts, and secular stagnation. Excessive debts only compound the situation. And what we know about the aging process is this: older populations save more, spend less, and take fewer risks. They shift from stocks to bonds, from growth to income, from consumption to preservation. This isn't theory — it's behavioral reality backed by decades of data. An aging population guarantees continued velocity decline. You can't generate sustainable inflation when money doesn't circulate. I said above that fiscal trends have a 20% correlation to bond yields, and if that is all that entered the bond-yield equation, the 10-year T-note rate would be north of 6.0% right now. But you can't run a bond model with a single-variable regression — there are demographics, inflation, nominal GDP growth, the shifts in the output gap, and unit labour costs that must be considered. This is why the 10-year Treasury yield is range-bound around 4.5%. And a key reason is this secular shift towards aging demographics. And in the future, demographics will swamp everything else. Bond demand from aging boomers will overwhelm supply concerns. By 2030, the 60+ cohort will hold $35 trillion in financial assets, and they'll systematically rotate from risk assets to fixed income. This creates a natural ceiling on yields despite fiscal deterioration. Position for: • Secular disinflation • Compressed multiples • Yield scarcity • Fiscal crises Sector Implications: • Bond with bonds: Overweight high-quality bonds. Duration is your friend when yields grind lower. • Health Care everything: REITs, pharma, devices, services. Health Care isn't just a defensive play — it's THE growth story in a no-growth world. Americans 85+ spend $35,000 annually on health care versus $9,000 for the under-65 cohort. Do the math on 85+ population doubling by 2040. Health Care REITs sport 92% occupancy and +3.5% rent growth. Compare that to office REITs hemorrhaging tenants. • Dividend aristocrats: Aging investors crave yield. • Gold: Currency debasement hedge as fiscal situation deteriorates. • International diversification: Find demographics that are vibrant (India, Latin America). Conversely, avoid: • Consumer Discretionary (retirees don't buy BMWs) • Homebuilders (household formation plummets) • Traditional Retail (Amazon + aging = death spiral) • Regional Banks (no loan growth in a no-growth world) This isn't doom and gloom — it's math. And it hasn't yet dawned on the political class. The demographic die is cast. Those who position accordingly will preserve capital. Those who don't will learn why demographics dominate — including monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and deregulation. That is why the term 'destiny' is only used with 'demographics' in mind. The boomers had their day. That day is ending. Position accordingly. In other words, invest conservatively and thematically. David Rosenberg is founder of Rosenberg Research.
