When will the next UK heatwave be?

Yahoo

a day ago

The Met Office has said it is not "scientifically possible" to predict the temperature almost two weeks in advance, following media reports that another heatwave is on the way - but they do think it will warm up in the middle of the month.
In recent days, the Daily Mirror and other news organisations have been reporting that temperatures could rise to between 34C to 41C starting from around 14 July.
They have based on meteorological forecasts produced by WX Charts, which produces a model looking at what the weather will be like in a few weeks.
These charts show temperatures of up 41C hitting the southeast of England on 15 July, with scorching weather forecast from the 14th.
But the Met Office, which is the UK's official weather forecaster, does not share the same view.
They rely on a range of models to produce their forecasts and say there is little point in giving temperature estimates at a regional level more than five days in the future.
Addressing widespread claims of 41C temperatures later in July, a Met Office spokesperson told Yahoo News UK: "With regards to the 41°C prediction, it's likely that this has been taken from a single model run. Forecast models from a range of professional organisations are available in the public domain for free and sometimes a singular model run, gets used by some online outlets to suggest the 'exact date' or 'exact temperature' that will occur.
"One-off, individual weather charts cannot represent a definitive forecast with the certainty that some apply to them."
However, the Met Office's long range forecast does predict there will be some "very warm" temperatures in a few weeks, they just don't know how hot or where it will happen.
The UK has already experienced a heatwave in the middle of June and saw scorching temperatures return at the end of the month, with the hottest of the year on 1 July, with 34.7C being recorded in St James's Park.
Heatwaves are hard to predict more than a few days in the future but Maxely said: "There is an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures, but this does not guarantee prolonged hot weather or heatwaves."
She said this was similar to trends seen in recent years and it aligns with the ongoing warming of our climate.
She said: "We may experience more hot days and warm nights than usual, raising the potential for heatwave conditions at times.
"However, this increased chance could also reflect a mix of hot and cooler days, or generally warmer conditions without sustained extreme heat."
In their long-range forecast from 8 July to 17 July, the Met Office notes there is a chance of very warm weather hitting the country.
They say it will be generally cool until the 14th, with the temperature slightly lower than average and rain in the north.
But from the 14th onwards, they say there are "signs" the temperature could rise and become "very warm", especially across the south of the UK.
They say the warm weather could then spread across the rest of the country.
Looking further ahead until the end of the month, the Met Office says there will likely be a split in weather between north and south, with the south warmer and the north wetter.
But they also say there is a chance for episodes of "hot weather and thundery outbreaks" around the 20th before making way for more settled weather.
All of these predictions are still only predictions and are not confirmed.
The Met Office says they don't like to put firm forecasts out for more than five days in the future.
They said that when going much further into the future, the "chaotic nature" of the atmosphere comes into play, where any small event in the Atlantic can upend the weather in the UK in a few days' time.
They say their long-range forecasts still have a "relatively high level of accuracy", but it is harder to be precise about exactly where will be impacted by what weather.
Here, Yahoo News breaks down what the weather will be like over the next few days.
Generally cloudy with a few outbreaks of rain, especially in the south. Gradually turning drier and brighter in the north during the afternoon. Breezy but also warm and humid. Maximum temperature 24C.
Cloudy with showers on Sunday. Fewer showers on Monday, with more sunny spells. Breezy throughout. A cool start on Tuesday but dry with plenty of sunshine.
Damp and grey with outbreaks of rain and perhaps some heavier showers. Breezy but feeling humid. Maximum temperature 21C.
Bright and breezy to end the weekend with scattered showers, these becoming less frequent into next week with more sunny spells emerging. Winds easing by Tuesday.
Cloudy all round but sun more likely in the west while showers are more likely in the east. Windy but warm and humid throughout. Maximum temperature 25C.
Things will freshen up on Sunday in the west while it will take until Monday for the cloud to clear in the east. Sunnier spells with some showers and breezes will settle in for the start of the week.
Dry and gradually brightening in the east, with sunny spells developing during the afternoon, but often cloudy with occasional light rain or drizzle in the west. Maximum temperature 22C.
Cloudy with showers on Sunday, locally heavy. Fewer showers on Monday, with more sunny spells. Breezy throughout. A cool start on Tuesday but dry with plenty of sunshine.
Damp and grey for much of Saturday with outbreaks of rain and perhaps some heavier showers. Breezy but feeling humid. Maximum temperature 22C.
Turning fresher from Sunday. Bright and breezy to end the weekend with scattered showers, these becoming less frequent into next week with more sunny spells emerging. Winds easing by Tuesday.
A yellow weather warning for rain is in place over much of the west of Scotland on Saturday, in place until 3pm. Expected to be sunnier over the central belt but temperatures staying below 20C.
The rains will weaken but remain over much of the west of the country on Sunday before becoming drier on Monday and Tuesday. The rain will move into the centre of the country at the start of the week, with Glasgow and Edinburgh both forecast to see some heavy showers.
A cloudy morning with rain in the west. The rain will clear as sunny spells increase through the afternoon. Maximum temperature 19C.
Cloudy with rain turning to scattered showers Sunday. The showers clear overnight to leave Monday and Tuesday dry with increasing sunny spells.
Damp and grey for much of Saturday with outbreaks of rain and perhaps some heavier showers. Chance of some brighter breaks in the east. Breezy but feeling humid. Maximum temperature 20C.
Turning fresher from Sunday. Bright and breezy to end the weekend with scattered showers, these becoming less frequent into next week with more sunny spells emerging.