China's Progress Toward Military Supremacy
Explain this statement in your book: China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) 'has become a global actor, but it is not yet a global power.'
The PLA has become more actively involved beyond China's immediate periphery, but usually in very modest ways. Examples include counter-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden, participation in U.N. peacekeeping missions in Africa and the Middle East, and a single overseas base in Djibouti. These are all non-combat-focused missions that involve no more than a few thousand troops. There are also strong constraints on the PLA's ability to deploy larger contingents abroad, including the lack of a global command structure and limited global logistics infrastructure.
This means that while the PLA can project influence and shape the security environment, it cannot conduct the same range of combat missions that the U.S. military can based on our forward presence of hundreds of thousands of troops in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. China has avoided a larger commitment because it has opted to focus on priorities closer to home, and because it tries not to get too enmeshed in foreign conflicts.
Examine the PLA's concept of 'strategic discipline.'
China has a military strategy that requires the PLA to be most ready for domestic emergencies and conflicts with neighbors, with a focus on Taiwan. Starting from a low level of modernization decades ago, they have pragmatically followed this strategy over successive administrations – favoring long-term acquisition and piece-by-piece military reforms over global deployments that would have overstretched their capabilities, and near-term escalations that would have complicated their force buildup. Even in Asia, they have kept conflicts at a low level, usually favoring 'gray zone' tactics over outright use of force.
Exercising strategic patience has resulted in a military that is far more advanced than it would have been had they been distracted. But it also came at the price of real-world experience since they have avoided becoming involved in full-blown armed conflicts since the 1980s. To bridge this gap, they have accelerated their training but top Chinese leaders including Xi Jinping still critique PLA personnel as being unready for combat.
Analyze how the PLA's expansion of overseas basing could bolster its ability to deny access for U.S. forces.
The PLA has a single traditional overseas base in Djibouti and is in negotiations with several other countries, concentrated around Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, for new bases or operating locations. The PLA could conceivably use a presence in these locations to create problems for nearby U.S. forces, especially if the PLA ever deploys combat capabilities such as missiles or special forces.
The larger challenge, however, is not overseas PLA bases but Chinese economic and political influence with countries across the Global South that host U.S. bases or that could provide other kinds of support. Beijing might seek to use that influence to restrict the U.S. military's ability to deploy and sustain forces in a future conflict and reduce our ability to pull together a coalition.
How might the PLA exercise military supremacy in a plausible Taiwan Strait conflict?
China has regarded a cross-strait conflict as its main planning scenario since the early 1990s. The immediate goal is leveraging military power to deter Taiwan independence, but the PLA also needs to be able to use force to compel reunification. Xi has given them a deadline of 2027 to be ready.
They have several options on the table, including different kinds of blockades, operations against Taiwan's offshore islands, and even a full-scale invasion. They are actively training for and rehearsing these kinds of operations. They are also thinking through the complications of those operations and trying to find solutions to them. Logistics is one example where they have been deploying new capabilities to move troops and equipment.
However, a large campaign against Taiwan would involve heavy risks for the PLA. Taiwan has been learning lessons from Ukraine in how to counter an opposing force and the United States may intervene. There would also be significant economic risks for China as countries line up to impose sanctions. These factors give Xi and his political allies pause in dramatically escalating tensions with Taiwan.
Assess the impact of intensifying China-U.S. strategic competition on China's quest for military supremacy.
An intensification of U.S.-China rivalry has created some complications for the PLA's modernization. They now need to compete more than ever for influence and access in distant theaters where the United States has long enjoyed strategic advantages. They are also increasingly worried about Washington strengthening its allies, which Beijing fears is encouraging states such as Japan and the Philippines to press more firmly in their territorial disputes with China. In addition, U.S. export control restrictions under the last couple administrations are making it harder for China to acquire technology necessary for its military modernization, such as advanced semiconductors. Operationally, there are growing risks of collisions at sea and in the air, and growing concerns about escalation in the space and cyber realms, and about dangers in the nuclear domain as China rapidly expands its nuclear arsenal. Leaders on both sides are considering what they need to do to prevent crises and effectively manage them if they occur.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Kyodo News
5 hours ago
- Kyodo News
SDF request led to nuclear threat scenario in Japan-U.S. exercise
TOKYO - The Japanese Self-Defense Forces strongly urged the U.S. military during a joint command post exercise last year to mirror any nuclear threat made by China with one of its own, government sources said Sunday. The United States ultimately complied with the request in the simulation exercise that envisioned a potential invasion of Taiwan by Beijing, raising concerns that Japan's push to invoke nuclear deterrence could exacerbate tensions between the United States and China. The request, the first of its kind in a Japan-U.S. joint exercise, was based on Japan's policy of reliance on the U.S. nuclear umbrella for protection, suggesting that both Japanese government and SDF officials see Chinese nuclear saber-rattling as a real possibility in the event of a Taiwan contingency. The Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Japan and the United States named China as a hypothetical enemy for the first time in the computer simulation exercise "Keen Edge" in February last year. During the exercise, the U.S. Navy set up temporary bases in the Nansei island chain in the Kagoshima and Okinawa prefectures in the initial stages of a Taiwan contingency, with the SDF providing logistical support. Later in the drill, the scenario assumed that China hinted at the use of nuclear weapons against the United States and Japan, but the U.S. side initially did not take any measures due to concerns over escalating the situation further, according to the sources. Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, ultimately acquiesced to repeated requests by Gen. Yoshihide Yoshida, chief of the SDF Joint Staff, for "the United States to counter with nuclear threats to defend Japan." Neither Beijing nor Washington used nuclear arms in the simulation. The two countries announced last December their first guidelines on "extended deterrence," often described as the U.S.'s commitment to using its full range of nuclear and conventional capabilities to defend Japan amid China's growing military activities and North Korea's missile and nuclear development.
Yomiuri Shimbun
10 hours ago
- Yomiuri Shimbun
China and EU: Differences over Economy, Security Stand Out
The European Union and China are both dealing with pressure from the high tariff policy adopted by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. It appears to have been shown once again that even under such circumstances, the two sides cannot always promote cooperation unconditionally by putting aside their differences on the economy and security. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, which is the EU's executive arm, and Antonio Costa, president of the European Council — a position equivalent to president of the EU — visited Beijing and held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other officials. The summit talks were initially scheduled to take place in Brussels, where the EU's headquarters are located. However, after China proposed that Premier Li Qiang attend the talks, von der Leyen reportedly requested a meeting with Xi and decided to visit China. The EU side appears to have considered it vital to have direct dialogue with Xi, who has concentrated all authority in his hands in today's China, in order to resolve various issues. 'As our cooperation has deepened, so have the imbalances. Rebalancing our bilateral relation is essential,' von der Leyen said during the meeting with Xi. Such remarks are meant to express the EU's frustration with some of China's actions, such as heightening economic coercion through trade. Specifically, the EU side expressed concerns over the influx into the EU of inexpensive electric vehicles manufactured with Chinese government subsidies, while also calling for abolishing export controls on rare earths that Beijing imposed in April. However, Xi said the challenges facing Europe do not come from China and criticized the EU for imposing additional tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. Regarding Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Costa urged Xi to use China's influence to press Moscow toward a ceasefire. The EU has been concerned that China has effectively supported the ongoing aggression through such acts as importing massive amounts of oil from Russia while exporting to the country materials that can be used for military purposes. In the past, the EU was less cautious toward China, which is geographically distant, and rather tended to regard it as an important economic partner. However, the EU has seen China seeking to expand its influence on Europe through its Belt and Road Initiative, a vision to create a vast economic zone, and witnessed the country aligning itself with Russia, the greatest threat to Europe. Given the situation, the EU's perception of China has grown increasingly harsh. Anticipating a prolonged confrontation with the United States, China has shown its willingness to improve relations with the EU, particularly by growing closer to Hungary and other forces, which have taken a noticeably conciliatory stance toward China and Russia. Such moves to disrupt EU unity in an apparent attempt to divide the bloc will only deepen the EU's distrust further. (From The Yomiuri Shimbun, July 27, 2025)
Japan Today
12 hours ago
- Japan Today
Battling tariffs is no trivial pursuit for U.S. games retailer
Scott Serrato, 28, has noticed some price increases in the gaming industry but sees them as understandable for now By Beiyi SEOW At a strip mall in Maryland, a miniature landscape extends across a table between Dash Krempel and his friend as a war game unfolds. But their hobby is becoming more expensive as U.S. tariffs take a toll. Krempel, 29, told AFP the cost of models for tabletop games have surged from inflation, and continued rising since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on trading partners this year. UK-made figurines that cost $60 around three years ago now go for $94.50, he said. "Prices have gotten bigger," he added. "It's a very expensive hobby to begin with, so it's maybe pricing a lot of people out." Instead of buying more products, he now tries to support retailer Game Kastle College Park by renting tables to play in-store. For the shop's owner, Boyd Stephenson, stocking new board games, paints and hobby supplies has only become more challenging. To avoid the harshest of Trump's tariffs, some suppliers had to delay shipments or postpone new releases. As they raised their suggested retail prices, so has Stephenson at Game Kastle. About a fifth of his store's products have seen cost hikes, with increases ranging from 5 percent to 20 percent. "If we see higher prices or higher tariffs, I'm going to see higher wholesale prices, and then I have to raise my prices accordingly," he said. Asked what percentage of his store relies on imports, Stephenson replied: "Almost all of it." Stephenson estimates some 7,000 board games were released last year from 5,000 different companies. "You're really looking at 5,000 different approaches (to tariffs)," he said. "Some producers are saying, 'We're going to eat the cost.' Some producers are saying, 'We're passing the cost through all the way.' And other producers are doing some sort of mix of that." Like other U.S. retailers, Stephenson could face more cost pressures come August 1, when steeper tariffs are set to hit dozens of economies like the European Union and India. The elevated rates mark an increase from the 10 percent levy Trump imposed on goods from most economies in April. While China -- a crucial manufacturing hub for games -- is temporarily spared, Trump has separately imposed fresh 30 percent tariffs on products from the world's second biggest economy this year. US tariffs on Chinese products could return to higher levels from August 12 if officials fail to extend their truce. Yet, there is no quick fix to return manufacturing to the United States. "U.S. manufacturers just don't have the capacity to do that anymore," said Stephenson, showing an intricate board game figurine. "Really, the people that are good at that, that's China," he said. "The best modeling paints come from Spain." "So if you see tariffs get put up on the EU, then all of a sudden I'm going to have to pay higher prices on modeling paint when I bring it into the country," he added. Trump has threatened the bloc with a 30 percent tariff. Stephenson tries to absorb some cost hikes, but said: "I have to be able to pay the staff, pay the electric company, pay the landlord." Trump's on-again, off-again approach to duties has also made suppliers' price changes more unpredictable. "What is always universally bad for business is uncertainty," Stephenson said. He usually stocks up on inventory ahead of the year-end holiday season, but expects to be more strategic with purchases this year to avoid unwelcome surprises. Many companies are delaying merchandise imports as they lack certainty, said Jonathan Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation. "When the product is brought into the country and entered into commerce, you have 15 days to pay your tariff bill," he said. This causes problems when tariff rates change and businesses lack funds to pay for orders. Some businesses, and industry group the Game Manufacturers Association, have mounted legal challenges against Trump's blanket tariffs hitting various countries, noting nearly 80 percent of tabletop games sold in the U.S. are made abroad. But such complaints are an uphill battle. "The damage, especially for small retailers, has been significant," Gold said. © 2025 AFP
