Thackerays vs BJP: Can Raj and Uddhav shine together in BMC polls?

India Today

4 days ago

Ahead of a joint rally announced by estranged cousins, Uddhav and Raj Thackeray, to protest the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government's Hindi imposition in Maharashtra, the government resolution inducting Hindi as the third language in primary schools was revoked. The Thackerays hailed this as a big victory for the 'Marathi manoos'.Will the two now join hands to take on the BJP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in the upcoming BMC elections? Posters across Mumbai seem to be urging the two to unite to claim Bal Thackeray's legacy. Critics, on the other hand, have pointed out that Raj Thackeray's clout has taken many hits over the years, and his presence beside Udhhav would not make much difference.advertisementFor the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena, which has controlled the BMC for a quarter of a century, this is a do-or-die battle.Raj's influence?
Raj Thackeray left the Shiv Sena in 2005, alleging he was "insulted" and "humiliated" after Bal Thackeray anointed Uddhav as his political heir. His outfit, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, initially showed potential in urban centres like Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli, Pune, and Nashik.In its debut in the 2009 state elections, the MNS won an impressive 13 seats with a 5.7 per cent vote share. It damaged the Shiv Sena, whose tally declined by 18 seats and 3.7 per cent of votes. In the 2014 Vidhan Sabha polls, however, the Shiv Sena gained 19 seats and three per cent votes, recouping its losses to MNS while Raj Thackeray's party won only one seat.advertisementIn the 2019 state polls, the MNS repeated the same performance, and in 2024, it drew a blank. However, the party recorded a vote share of 7.1 per cent in the Mumbai zone's 36 seats, which make up the BMC.In the 2012 municipal polls, the MNS put up a good show in Maharashtra's urban areas, winning 25-40 seats. However, it was not able to hold onto them and lost massive support in the following years, either because of leaders defecting or because of its supremo's inconsistent messaging. In the 2017 BMC polls, its tally fell significantly, and the party won only seven seats, down from 27 in 2012.
Raj Thackeray's dilly-dallying lost him some support amongst the Marathi manoos. The MNS declared its support for Narendra Modi in 2014. However, in 2019, Raj made a U-turn and called for a 'Modi-mukt Bharat', holding rallies in support of the Congress-NCP combine. In 2024, he turned again and announced his support for Modi.Do-or-die battle for bothIn the 2024 state elections, while the Shiv Sena-led by Shinde won 57 seats with a 12.5 per cent vote share, Uddhav's Shiv Sena won only 20 seats with a 10 per cent vote share. Of the 50 one-on-one contests, the Shinde Sena emerged victorious in 36 — the Uddhav Sena won only 14 of these. Raj Thackeray's MNS did not win a single seat, bagging just a 1.6 per cent vote share. Shinde won the first round of the battle in claiming Bal Thackeray's legacy.
If the BJP and Shinde win the BMC, then it will be game over for Uddhav and Raj in Maharashtra. The split in Shiv Sena, with Eknath Shinde taking control of the party and the official symbol, has left the Thackeray brothers in the lurch. Raj is 57, and Uddhav is 65, and they wish to reclaim Balasaheb's legacy and also establish their sons, Aditya and Amit, in politics.All is not lost for Uddhav and Raj, however. The Uddhav Sena won half its tally from the Mumbai zone, bagging the second-highest vote share of 23.2 per cent - higher than the six seats and 17.7 per cent vote share of the Shinde Sena. Meanwhile, the MNS bagged 7.1 per cent votes, and could play kingmaker in BMC. After all, it led to the defeat of the Maha Vikas Aghadi in three seats in the Mumbai zone.
advertisementThackeray powerThe demography of BMC has changed over the years, with rising Gujarati and North Indian numbers fuelling the BJP's rise. In the 2017 BMC elections, the BJP almost dislodged the Shiv Sena (pre-split) as the single largest party, bagging 82 seats versus Sena's 84. The MNS won seven seats, the Congress 31, the NCP nine, and others 14.Of the BJP's 82 seats, more than half (43) came from wards falling under the North Mumbai and North West Mumbai Lok Sabha seats. In these regions, the non-Marathi, non-Muslim population is between 45 and 60 per cent. BMC has around 20 per cent Muslim population, which backed the Uddhav Sena in state elections.advertisementIf Uddhav exits the MVA and joins hands with Raj, this vote could move back to Congress and Sharad Pawar, along with the AIMIM, the Samajwadi Party, etc. Strategists hope Muslim voters will stay with Uddhav as he is best positioned to defeat the BJP and Shinde Sena. The MNS has around a 7-8 per cent vote share in Mumbai, which could strengthen the hands of Uddhav and make the contest tight. The Shinde Sena doesn't enjoy a lot of support in Mumbai, like it does in Thane.If the MNS and Sena had contested together in the 2017 BMC elections, they would have won 27 extra seats, 118 versus the actual combined tally of 91 (84 + 7) with a 36 per cent vote share, attaining a majority on their own. Of course, the 28 per cent united Sena vote is not with Uddhav alone anymore. Even considering the state election performance, the two brothers have around 30 per cent vote share (23 + 7).A survey by agency VoteVibe shows that 52% of Mumbaikars would back Raj and Uddhav if they join hands together in the BMC polls against 26% for Eknath Shinde in the battle for the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray.
advertisementThe sidelining of Shinde in the new BJP dispensation — taking away chief ministership from him — is being used by the Thackerays to woo back the Marathi manoos, highlighting the growing influence of Gujaratis in the state. Raj has been unhappy with the BJP for not helping his son get elected and its use-and-throw policy.The BJP is getting stronger, day by day, in Maharashtra and sniffs a solid chance at winning BMC polls and weakening Thackeray family control over the corporation. The upcoming BMC polls are crucial for both.- Ends(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)Must Watch