Oil Heads for Weekly Losses on Fading Geopolitical Risk
0907 ET – Oil futures are higher for a third session, yet on track for solid weekly losses after the Israel-Iran cease-fire caused prices to plunge early in the week. Much of the risk premium that had driven prices to multi-month highs was the idea of disruption to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, says Jay Truesdale, CEO of risk consultancy TD International. But the likelihood of that happening was low as it was in the interest of the U.S., Iran itself, and other players in the region to keep the strait open. 'Most traders have now gone back to base cases anchored by supply and demand, especially given that the world has sufficient oil,' he says. Prices are likely to go back to where they were before the Israeli strikes, 'somewhere in the $60s.' WTI is up 0.5% at $65.54, and Brent is up 0.3% at $67.95. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0736 GMT – Oil prices edge higher in early trade, but remain on track for steep weekly losses as the geopolitical risk premium tied to Middle East tensions fades. Brent crude rises 0.8% to $67.21 a barrel, while WTI gains 0.8% to $65.77 a barrel. The benchmarks are down between 11% and 12% for the week after days of heightened volatility. 'The estimated geopolitical risk premium in the spot market has now fallen to below $1 a barrel from its Sunday peak of near $15,' analysts at Goldman Sachs say. Market focus has now shifted toward developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and trade negotiations. Key decisions loom, with negotiations between Washington and Tehran expected to resume next week, OPEC+ set to decide on August production policy on July 6, and President Trump facing a decision on reciprocal tariffs. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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