Tom Mulcair: Opportunity knocks for the NDP; will they answer?
Tom Mulcair is a former leader of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017, and a columnist for CTVNews.ca.
The NDP suffered the worst defeat in its history in last April's election, gaining the support of just six per cent of Canadian voters.
The seven remaining NDP MPs will have their work cut out for them as they try to repair the damage done by their decision to hop in the sack with Trudeau's Liberals.
That so-called supply and confidence agreement saw several NDP priorities like dental care and pharmacare become new strands of Canada's social safety net; a worthwhile initiative that came at a huge political price.
That deal deprived the NDP of any credible business case when knocking on doors during the last election. What possible argument was left to convince NDPers not to vote Liberal, when the NDP's MPs themselves had been voting Liberal for three years?
Justin Trudeau, Jagmeet Singh, Pierre Poilievre
File photo of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau shaking hands with New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre looks on at a Tamil heritage month reception on Jan. 30, 2023 in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
The decision to back Trudeau may be the most obvious reason for the NDP's electoral disaster, but it's not the only one.
Canada's recent decision to join with 24 other countries in demanding the immediate cessation of the war in Gaza underscores the need for all political parties to have a consistent, long-term approach to this most complex, and existential, foreign relations issue. It's precisely because Canada has been such a historically strong ally of Israel that this signature carries so much weight.
Singh's NDP put itself at odds with the party's usually balanced approach to the complex issues of the Middle East, when some caucus members began to express strident anti-Israel positions.
This wasn't new. Jack Layton had to work hard to maintain that equilibrium, pushing back when a key caucus member had expressed support for boycott, divestment and sanctions against Israel.
Jack made it clear that while all MPs can bring their own opinions to the caucus table, they don't get to make up their own party policy. The NDP still has a fairly nuanced public position on these issues, at least in its official policies as voted on by the membership. But the leadership and the caucus apparently felt that they were no longer bound by those.
Issue of Israeli-Palestinian conflict isn't going away
The ensuing flurry of increasingly harsh anti-Israel rhetoric made it difficult for the voting public to know whether those pronouncements represented the NDP position. When policy is being made up on the fly in reaction to changing events, no matter how compelling or tragic, a political party's credibility with voters is directly affected. How can they know what they're voting for?
That issue isn't about to go away. Several potential leadership candidates, including Singh's foreign affairs spokesperson, Edmonton Strathcona MP Heather McPherson, have been among the most one-sided in their criticism of Israel. Her statements have been increasing in intensity since the election and may signal that staking out a more extreme position on this issue is seen as politically advantageous to her leadership aspirations.
While that type of hardline attitude might get support from some elements within the party, the ability to talk evenhandedly and consistently about longstanding conflicts on the world stage is seen as a litmus test by a much wider group of Canadian voters.
The NDP has been a party of power in six provinces and now has strong capable governments in British Columbia and Manitoba. If the federal NDP is left talking to itself, the dream of one day also having an NDP government in Ottawa could be pushed to the backburner for decades.
Leadership race
The party has now set a timeline for its leadership race to replace Jagmeet Singh. It may be revealing about the state of the party that it wasn't able to actually announce a date. They only said that the vote would be held at the latest on March 29, in Winnipeg. That will give the NDP apparatchiks the summer to come up with rules for the race that they will be able to announce ahead of the official launch of the campaign in September.
The timing of the vote was being actively discussed by potential candidates, and it's understandable. This fairly long campaign will favour someone who is already ensconced in a good paying position; a sitting MP, for example.
Rules for the leadership campaign are not the only issue that has been affecting the party. When you only have seven MPs and three of them sign a letter decrying a lack of proper consultation on the choice of interim leader, you've got a problem. When those three MPs also happen to be the only racialized women in the caucus, you're setting yourself up for a fall.
Jack Layton
File photo of the late NDP Leader Jack Layton singing with NDP MP Pierre Dionne Labelle, left, and NDP MP Paulina Ayala as they took part in national holiday festivities in Gatineau, Quebec on June 24, 2011. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
The NDP's diversity and inclusiveness have been among its strengths. They won't be for long, if they begin to be seen as a façade. One of the keys to Jack Layton's success was his ability to reach across the linguistic divide.
Jack and I were both English-speaking Quebecers. That gave us an understanding of the linguistic minority experience and reinforced our abiding support for the French fact in Canada.
Reaching out to Quebecers
Of the higher profile NDPers having expressed an interest in running for the leadership, only former MP and outgoing B.C. NDP cabinet minister Nathan Cullen is bilingual. Cullen would have no trouble taking part in a leaders' debate during an election campaign or participating in a fast-paced interview on a talk show like Tout le Monde en parle.
Nathan Cullen
File photo of Bulkley Valley-Stikine NDP candidate Nathan Cullen, left, and Nechako Lakes NDP candidate Murphy Abraham, during a campaign stop in Terrace, B.C., on Sept. 24, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck
That's what the eight million francophone Canadians would expect, and indeed require, from an aspiring prime minister. If, during the NDP's own French leadership debates, certain candidates cannot really participate, they're toast. Or, to put it another way, if one of the unilingual Anglos were to win, the party would be condemning itself to the sidelines, no longer able to be real players in Canadian political life.
An ability to reach out to French voters isn't just seen as essential to francophones themselves. The vast majority of Canadians want a leader who can speak and understand both official languages. It is seen as being an essential skill for building, and keeping together, this great nation.
The stakes are high in this impending race. If it plays its cards right, the NDP could be in a much more favourable position come the next election. Prime Minister Mark Carney has been bequeathed a shivering economic dungpile by the outgoing Trudeau regime. Cleaning up that mess will require more than a broom; he'll need a Kärcher pressure washer.
Some of those tough management choices may prove as unpopular as they are necessary. That may provide the beginning of an opportunity for the NDP. But which NDP will run in the next election? A professionalized, credible NDP that can talk to all Canadians or a rump NDP that's trying to please the fringes?
Serious economic, environmental, social and foreign policy issues require thoughtful policies and the perceived ability to do more than just talk about them and emote. The impending leadership race will provide a window onto the future of a party with a proud, remarkable past.
It could be a new beginning, or it could be curtains.
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