It's a year of rapid change, except when it comes to Trump's approval numbers, AP-NORC polling finds

Washington Post

4 hours ago

WASHINGTON — Eric Hildenbrand has noticed prices continue to rise this year, even with President Donald Trump in the White House. He doesn't blame Trump, his choice for president in 2024, but says Gov. Gavin Newsom and other Democrats who control his home state, California, are at fault.
'You can't compare California with the rest of the country,' said Hildenbrand, who is 76 and lives in San Diego. 'I don't know what's going on in the rest of the country. It seems like prices are dropping. Things are getting better, but I don't necessarily see it here.'
Voters like Hildenbrand, whose support of the Republican president is unwavering, help explain Trump's polling numbers and how they have differed from other presidents' polling trajectory in significant ways. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in March found that 42% of U.S. adults approved of Trump's job performance. That is a lower rating than those of other recent presidents at the beginning of their second terms, including Democrat Barack Obama and Republican George W. Bush.
The most recent AP-NORC poll, from July, puts Trump at 40% approval. While that is not a meaningful change from March, there is some evidence that Trump's support may be softening, at least on the margins. The July poll showed a slight decrease in approval of his handling of immigration since earlier in the year. Some other pollsters, such as Gallup , show a downward slide in overall approval since slightly earlier in his term, in January.
But even those shifts are within a relatively narrow range, which is typical for Trump. The new AP-NORC polling tracker shows that Trump's favorability rating has remained largely steady since the end of his first term, with between 33% and 43% of U.S. adults saying they viewed him favorably across more than five years.
Those long-term trends underscore that Trump has many steadfast opponents. But loyal supporters also help explain why views of the president are hard to change even as he pursues policies that most Americans do not support, using an approach that many find abrasive.
Trump has not had a traditional honeymoon period in his second term. He did not in his first, either.
An AP-NORC poll conducted in March 2017 , two months into his first term, showed that 42% of Americans 'somewhat' or 'strongly' approved of his performance. That is largely where his approval rating stayed over the course of the next four years.
The recent slippage on immigration is particularly significant because that issue was a major strength for Trump in the 2024 election. Earlier in his second term, it was also one of the few areas where he was outperforming his overall approval. In March, about half of U.S. adults approved of his handling of immigration. But the July AP-NORC poll found his approval on immigration at 43%, in line with his overall approval rating.
Other recent polls show growing discontent with Trump's approach on immigration. A CNN/SSRS poll found that 55% of U.S. adults say the president has gone too far when it comes to deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally, an increase of 10 percentage points since February.
'I understand wanting to get rid of illegal immigrants, but the way that's being done is very aggressive,' said Donovan Baldwin, 18, of Asheboro, North Carolina, who did not vote in the 2024 election. 'And that's why people are protesting because it comes off as aggression. It's not right.'
Ratings of Trump's handling of the economy, which were more positive during his first term, have been persistently negative in his second term. The July poll found that few Americans think Trump's policies have benefited them so far.
Even if he is not a fan of everything Trump has done so far, Brian Nichols, 58, of Albuquerque, New Mexico, is giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Nichols, who voted for Trump in 2024, likes what he is seeing from the president overall, though he has his concerns both on style and substance, particularly Trump's social media presence and his on-again, off-again tariffs. Nichols also does not like the push to eliminate federal agencies such as the Education Department.
Despite his occasional disagreements with Trump, though, Nichols said he wants to give the president space to do his job, and he trusts the House and Senate, now run by Republicans, to act as a safeguard.
'We put him into office for a reason, and we should be trusting that he's doing the job for the best of America,' Nichols said.
Trump has spent the past six months pushing far-reaching and often unpopular policies. Earlier this year, Americans were bracing themselves for higher prices as a result of his approach to tariffs. The July poll found that most people think Trump's tax and spending bill will benefit the wealthy, while few think it will pay dividends for the middle class or people like them.
Discomfort with individual policies may not translate into wholesale changes in views of Trump, though. Those have largely been constant through years of turmoil, with his favorability rating staying within a 10-percentage point range through the COVID-19 pandemic, a felony conviction and attempted assassination.
To some of his supporters, the benefits of his presidency far outweigh the costs.
Kim Schultz, 62, of Springhill, Florida said she is thrilled with just about everything Trump is doing as president, particularly his aggressive moves to deport anyone living in the country illegally.
Even if Trump's tariffs eventually take effect and push prices up, she said she will not be alarmed.
'I've always had the opinion that if the tariffs are going to cost me a little bit more here and there, I don't have a problem with that,' she said.
Across the country, Hildenbrand dislikes Trump's personality and his penchant for insults, including those directed at foreign leaders. But he thinks Trump is making things happen.
'More or less, to me, he's showing that he's on the right track,' he said. 'I'm not in favor of Trump's personality, but I am in favor of what he's getting done.'
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Cooper reported from Phoenix.