Aid cuts put vital work to protect millions in Ethiopia from climate crisis at risk
Ahead of the rainy season in the Somali region of Ethiopia, 46-year-old Habiba Abdulahi knew that something was not right.
The moisture that is usually present in the air at that time was absent. Fearing the devastating impact of a drought, the mother of 10 was worried about what would happen to her family of 10 children and the herd of 20 goats she relied on for money and food.
But Abdulahi had been selected by the World Food Programme (WFP) for a programme known as 'Drought Anticipatory Action', which gave her access to early warning systems, support meetings, and cash transfers to help insulate from the growing impact of the climate crisis.
'We were selected because of our vulnerability... We cannot fight nature, but we can be prepared and protect ourselves from what is to come,' she said at the time. 'In the sessions, we learned how to save feed for our animals, and food for our families,' she continued. 'With the cash received, I purchased food and animal feed for our livestock, and we have also cultivated crops.'
Four months later, the family remained healthy and well, and their livestock was still alive.
'The support came at the right time. We only had shower rain, and then there was a complete drought,' she said. 'The livestock that can travel, we took them to areas with better pasture, but those that cannot travel remained with us... We are striving to manage this critical time.'
Abdulahi knows how important the help she received was, but now others might not be so lucky. Countries including the US, UK, Germany, and France have all announced significant aid cuts in recent months, meaning that by the start of June 2025, only a little more than 10 per cent - or $4.9 billion - of the estimated $46.18bn in global humanitarian aid required this year had been secured, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
The Independent has previously reported on how the funding cuts by Donald Trump could cost millions of lives over the next five years, while the drop in UK aid could leave 12 million people without access to clean water or sanitation and result in 2.9 million fewer children in education
'Saving lives and protecting livelihoods'
Anticipatory Action is a programme of activities that is designed to foster resilience and help communities deal with the financial 'shock' of extreme climate events, by supporting people before disaster strikes, and avoiding the need to provide emergency humanitarian aid at a later point.
'The goal is really to reduce the impact on vulnerable populations by saving lives and protecting livelihoods ahead of the shock,' explains Robert Ackatia-Armah, deputy country director for WFP Ethiopia.
As weather patterns become more extreme globally, Anticipatory Action has become a core part of how the WFP is working to address the climate crisis. The programme was first launched in 2015, and is now operational in 24 countries across Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean.
In Ethiopia specifically, during the rainy season of February to May this year, around one million people received early warning messages and 150,000 people received cash transfers in the drought-prone Somali and Oromia regions. They are some of the estimated 19 million Ethiopians who live in drought-prone regions.
'We respond to droughts, floods and cyclones, providing early warning systems, financial support, and land management advice in the days, weeks and sometimes even months ahead of the climate shock, based on the predictability of the information that we have,' says Ackatia-Armah.
'The idea is that we cannot prevent the shock from happening, but we can prevent the humanitarian cost and caseload by intervening in advance.'
'The most severe needs'
However, thanks to aid cuts, agencies in charge of distributing money are having to focus on emergency humanitarian aid over programmes like Anticipatory Action or other activities that prioritise longer-term climate resilience.
'Country Teams are further prioritising their humanitarian appeals and responses to ensure that the people with the most severe needs are assisted first,' said UN OCHA in its most recent update.
Ironically, responding to a humanitarian catastrophe will always be more expensive than an anticipatory response, says Ackatia-Armah. And if WFP Ethiopia was no longer able to provide anticipatory support, which would lead to more families losing their livelihoods and being forced to migrate, then the country's emergency humanitarian aid costs could balloon.
While the agency has funding for the February to May rainy season, there is currently 'no confidence or certainty that we will get money for anticipatory action in Ethiopia's next rainy season,' says Ackatia-Armah, who adds that he is 'very worried' about the future. A number of regions of Ethiopia, particularly in the south face another wet season from October to December.
'If we're not able to provide early warning messages, or support in rangeland management, then people will lose their herds,' Ackatia-Armah continues. 'It will then take a huge amount of resources for communities to be restored.'
The threat to funding comes as the effects of the climate crisis becomes ever more severely-felt in Ethiopia. Rainfall is becoming more erratic, and droughts more severe, with the 2020 to 2023 Horn of Africa drought leading to 20 million people experiencing acute food insecurity, and 13m livestock dying across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
Abiy Wogderes, a geographic information system expert at WFP Ethiopia, sees the escalating climate challenge more clearly than most people. He studies weather forecasts from different weather agencies in order to make the drought predictions that form the basis of Anticipatory Action in Ethiopia.
'Every day at work we are witnessing climate change,' he says. 'Weather patterns are becoming much more challenging, especially over the past ten years.'
Wogderes says that the systems they have in place can continue to provide support to communities in need – but only if funding is not taken away.
'Technology advancements have made Anticipatory Action incredibly accurate. We now have tailored models for drought and flooding prediction, and we have very strong momentum,' he says. 'But unfortunately all of this is now under threat due to cuts, which is very frustrating.'
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