Wall Street barrels toward a big week: Fed meeting, Mag 7 earnings, jobs report, trade deadline

2 days ago

So long, summer doldrums. A stock market at all-time highs could be shaken up in a big way next week. Federal Reserve policymakers are convening for their July meeting at a time when central bank independence is in question. More of the Magnificent Seven companies are set to report and answer critical questions about artificial intelligence spending. Major economic data around jobs and inflation are on deck, and a key August trade deadline looms. That chain of calendar events has the potential to rock a market that's so far enjoyed a summer respite, with the S & P 500 on pace by week's end to close at a new all-time high every day this week. Volatility has been muted all month, despite dramatic economic and political headlines. This week, the S & P 500 closed above 6,300 for the first time ever. On Monday, the Magnificent Seven stocks posted their longest advance since 2023. Next week has the potential to upset the apple cart, however. "What isn't happening in this week? That is what I want to know," said Kim Forrest, founder at Bokeh Capital. Whether the rally continues could very well rest on what unfolds in the coming week. There are already faint signs of the rally running out of steam. Opendoor Technologies, an online real estate stock that was touted by hedge fund manager Eric Jackson, enjoyed a meteoric surge Monday on speculative fervor, before fizzling Tuesday — a telling signal. Skeptics are out there. BTIG's chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky, for example, said this week that the last time the Nasdaq-100 index went 60 straight days without closing below its 20-day moving average, a short-term trend indicator, was in 1999, just before the dot-com bubble burst. That technical setup, plus the start of a seasonally weak period for stocks, coupled with all manner of macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary headwinds, makes for a tenuous setup heading into August. "The main takeaway is that we may encounter some turbulence, even though it's unlikely to mark a major peak," BTIG's Krinsky wrote. Fed meeting Wall Street's focus on next week's meeting of the Federal Reserve, the last until September, and the status of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is likely to be more heated than usual after President Donald Trump's latest threats against the Fed chief and their joint tour Thursday of the Fed's Washington headquarters construction project. Trump appeared to tone down his fiercest rhetoric against Powell this week, saying the Fed chair is "going to be out pretty soon anyway." But Powell is certain to be grilled by reporters on the future independence of the central bank during the question-and-answer portion of his post-meeting press conference next Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is almost universally expected to hold its benchmark borrowing rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.50% at the conclusion of next week's two-day policy meeting, according to interest rate futures traded at the CME Group . Magnificent Seven AI spending The stock market's trajectory will also depend on the Magnificent Seven companies, four of which report their latest financial results next week: Meta Platforms and Microsoft are out on Wednesday, while Amazon and Apple release their quarterly numbers on Thursday. What the companies say about AI spending will be critical for the market. Much of the stock market's rise this year can be attributed to the torrent of capital spending from the companies known as hyperscalers, which is supposed to top $350 billion in 2025. But with the possible profits from AI still unknown, questions remain on whether the investments can be justifed. Investors will want to hear clear strategies from the hyperscalers . Meta Platforms recently raised eyebrows when it went on a spending spree, including the hiring of key AI experts such as Alexandr Wang from Scale AI as part of a $14 billion deal. Investors will also want to know more about Azure, the linchpin to Microsoft's AI ambitions. Growth in Amazon's cloud business will also be a center of attention. Jobs report, inflation data Next Friday's jobs report will come after few if any signs of cracks in the labor market from Trump's tariffs. Still, the July nonfarm payrolls report will likely show a deceleration. Economists polled by FactSet anticipate the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to have edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The personal consumption expenditure price index is expected to show inflation rising, to 2.4% from 2.3% on an annual basis, and to 0.31% from 0.14% on a monthly basis, according to FactSet. Aug. 1 trade deadline Finally, Wall Street is still wading through Trump's erratic trade policies. Many expect that the Friday Aug. 1 deadline to raise tariffs, which Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick this week called a "hard deadline," will nevertheless remain flexible as the White House continues to negotiate . Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, July 28 10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed Index Earnings: Waste Management, Universal Health Services, Nucor, Cincinnati Financial Tuesday, July 29 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (June) 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (May) 9:00 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (May) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (July) 10:00 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (June) Earnings: Seagate Technology, Starbucks, Mondelez International, Electronic Arts, Booking Holdings, Visa, Republic Services, PPG Industries, Caesars Entertainment, Sysco, Norfolk Southern, Hubbell, Corning, American Tower, Royal Caribbean Group, Merck & Co., United Parcel Service, Stanley Black & Decker, UnitedHealth Group, PayPal Holdings, Procter & Gamble, Ecolab, Boeing Wednesday, July 30 10:00 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (June) 2:00 p.m. FOMC Meeting 2:00 p.m. Fed Funds Target Upper Bound Earnings: MGM Resorts International, Lam Research, Ford Motor, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Qualcomm, Align Technology, Western Digital, Tyler Technologies, Public Storage, Prudential Financial, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Invitation Homes, F5, FirstEnergy, Extra Space Storage, DexCom, AvalonBay Communities, Albemarle, Hess, Altria Group, Hershey, Humana, Old Dominion Freight Line, Kraft Heinz, Generac Holdings, GE Healthcare Technologies, Automatic Data Processing, Allstate Thursday, July 31 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (07/19) 8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q2) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (07/26) 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (June) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (June) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (June) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (June) Earnings: Apple, Clorox, Amazon, KLA, Edison International, Monolithic Power Systems, Ingersoll Rand, First Solar, Coinbase Global, Kellanova, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Howmet Aerospace, Vulcan Materials, Comcast, Bristol Myers Squibb, Quanta Services, KKR & Co., Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, CVS Health, CMS Energy, Cigna Group, PG & E, Air Products & Chemicals, Mastercard, International Paper, Biogen, AbbVie Friday, Aug. 1 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (July) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Participation Rate (July) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (July) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (July) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing final (July) 10:00 a.m. Construction Spending (June) 10:00 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (July) 10:00 a.m Michigan Sentiment final (July) Earnings: T. Rowe Price Group, Colgate-Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Moderna, Kimberly-Clark, Chevron — CNBC's Jeff Cox, Yun Li and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.

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Stock futures rise as U.S.-EU trade deal kicks off a hectic week for markets: Live updates

CNBC

28 minutes ago

CNBC

Stock futures rise as U.S.-EU trade deal kicks off a hectic week for markets: Live updates

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 25, 2025. Jeenah Moon | Reuters U.S. equity futures rose on Sunday evening as Wall Street prepared for an especially busy week that'll bring earnings from several major tech companies, a key Federal Reserve meeting, President Donald Trump's Aug. 1 tariff deadline and key inflation data. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 161 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures were also higher by 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.5%. The move comes after Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. has reached an agreement with the European Union to lower tariffs to 15%. The president had previously threatened 30% tariffs on most imported goods from the U.S.'s largest trading partner. Wall Street is also coming off a winning week fueled by strong earnings and recent deals between the U.S. and other trading partners, including Japan and Indonesia. On Friday, all three of the major averages finished the day and week with gains. The blue-chip Dow climbed 208.01 points, or 0.47%, to settle at 44,901.92. The broad market S&P 500 gained 0.40% to close at 6,388.64, marking its fifth consecutive day of closing records and 14th record close of the year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 0.24% to 21,108.32 for its 15th record close of the year. "A healthy plethora of earnings beats, positive developments in U.S.-Japan trade relations, strong capex commentary, and a bullish "AI Action Plan" kept the enthusiasm of weeks' past stronger than ever," Nick Savone of Morgan Stanley's Institutional Equity Division said in a note over the weekend. "As we push through the bulk of S&P 500 companies still due to report, the lower bar heading into this season has admittedly kept spirits high, but stock reactions still look most principally rooted in forward guidance — especially as investors brace, time and again, for the impact of these trade headlines to flow through." The market is gearing up for the busiest week of earnings season. More than 150 companies in the S&P 500 are due to post their quarterly results, including "Magnificent Seven" names Meta Platforms and Microsoft on Wednesday, followed by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. Investors will be listening for companies' comments on AI spending for direction on whether big investments in hyperscalers this year are justified. This week, the Fed will also hold its two-day policy meeting, concluding on Wednesday. Although the central bank is expected to keep interest rates at their current target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, investors will be looking for clues about whether a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting. Tariffs and their effect on inflation will remain in focus on Thursday as traders get the June personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. The report is expected to show inflation rising to 2.4% from 2.3% year-over-year, according to FactSet, and to 0.31% from 0.14% on a monthly basis. Investors will also get a batch of jobs-related data this week, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, on Tuesday, ADP's private payrolls report on Wednesday, initial jobless claims Thursday and, on Friday, the critical July jobs report. Economists polled by FactSet anticipate the U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to show a slight bump to 4.2% from 4.1%.

‘It's an Easy Call,' Says Top Investor About Palantir Stock

Business Insider

43 minutes ago

Business Insider

‘It's an Easy Call,' Says Top Investor About Palantir Stock

Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) stock, like any investment, requires weighing the potential rewards against the risks. While the company continues to perform exceptionally well, the primary – and arguably only – factor giving investors pause is its elevated share price. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. That concern hasn't slowed the stock's momentum. Palantir shares have surged by over 500% in the past 12 months, and late last week, the company reached yet another record high. Its valuation multiples now tower over sector medians by thousands of percentage points, raising questions about whether the fundamentals can keep pace with investor enthusiasm. Next week's Q2 earnings report, scheduled for August 4th, could provide a timely reality check. It offers a critical opportunity for the company to justify its lofty valuation – or fall short of the market's high expectations. Top investor Rick Orford, who's ranked among the top 1% of stock pickers on TipRanks, is leaning toward the former scenario. He anticipates another upswing in PLTR shares following the earnings release, making it an easy call given the current trajectory. 'Should Palantir hit its Q2'25 targets – and with how the wind is blowing, that could happen – I think Palantir shareholders will be pleased. His optimism is rooted in both historical performance and Palantir's current momentum. Historically, the stock has swung an average of 17.5% following earnings – a double-edged sword, but one that Orford believes will cut favorably this time. Central to that belief is the company's AI Platform (AIP), which helped drive a 39% year-over-year revenue increase last quarter. That growth has been especially notable in Palantir's U.S. commercial segment, where AIP adoption led to a 71% revenue spike in Q1. According to Orford, this surge reflects a broader trend: companies across the country are scrambling to implement AI but often lack the in-house expertise. Palantir's AIP provides them with a ready-made solution. 'American enterprises are most likely desperate to implement AI solutions, but not all of them have the technical expertise to do so. With AIP, these enterprises get what they need to implement custom AI into their operations,' the investor explains. Orford also sees Palantir's government work as a key stabilizing force. Its deep ties to the U.S. defense sector – with multi-year, high-margin contracts – offer a steady revenue stream that cushions any slowdown in the private market. 'Palantir checks all the boxes of an exciting, growing company that's at the intersection of two major trends: enterprise AI adoption and national defense modernization,' the investor sums up. 'Analysts say Hold, but history says otherwise.' Unsurprisingly, Orford gives PLTR shares a Strong Buy rating. (To watch Orford's track record, click here) The analyst consensus on PLTR is indeed a Hold, based on 10 Hold ratings, 4 Buys, and 3 Sells. The average 12-month price target stands at $109.50, implying a 31% downside from current levels. (See PLTR stock forecast) To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks' Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks' equity insights.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): 'This Stock Should Be Up Much More,' Says Jim Cramer

Yahoo

an hour ago

Yahoo

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): 'This Stock Should Be Up Much More,' Says Jim Cramer

We recently published . Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer recently discussed. Cramer regularly discussed tech mega-cap Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) ahead of its earnings. The firm's shares have reversed course in July and are up by 1.9% year-to-date, primarily due to July's 9.9% gain. Before the report, Cramer was explicit in sharing that he regretted selling Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL)'s stock. This time, he discussed the firm's businesses and shared that the stock should be higher after the earnings: [GOOGL]'[On earnings report] Yeah, look cloud was important. I think the big focus is frankly, uh, that paid clicks picked up 4%. I mean I was thinking paid clips might be down, I was worried that I felt that this was the beginning of the erosion and the cannibalization versus Gemini. That was completely wrong. YouTube up 200 million. Really, really fantastic. . . .Look the story here is this that the more chips that they get, better they're doing. They have so much demand I was quite surprised. 20 New Technology Trends for 2024 'This stock should be up much more than that. While we acknowledge the potential of GOOGL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the . READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy Right Now. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.