New tool can identify children likely to become obese as adults
It is hoped that the new resource will one day mean that those at highest risk will get targeted support to prevent them from becoming obese in the first place.
The tool, which assesses a person's genetic risk of obesity, works twice as well as any other obesity risk predictor, academics said.
As well as identifying children at risk of obesity, it can also predict how well obese adults will respond to targeted weight loss programmes.
Academics used detail on genetic variations from more than five million people to create a tool called a polygenic risk score, which analyses people's genetics to work out their risk of developing obesity.
The tool could explain 17.6% of variation in body mass index score (BMI) from people in the UK, they found.
Researchers, led by academics at the universities of Copenhagen and Bristol, tested whether the risk score was associated with obesity using datasets of the physical and genetic characteristics of more than 500,000 people.
This included checking the tool on people taking part in the 'Children of the 90s' study – a long-term study in Bristol tracking families as children age.
They found that it could successfully predict weight gain during childhood – from the age of just two and a half – through to adolescence.
'Overall, these data show that polygenic scores have the potential to improve obesity prediction, particularly when implemented early in life,' the authors wrote in the journal, Nature Medicine.
Lead author of the research, assistant professor Roelof Smit from the University of Copenhagen, said: 'What makes the score so powerful is the consistency of associations between the genetic score and body mass index before the age of five and through to adulthood – timing that starts well before other risk factors start to shape their weight later in childhood.
'Intervening at this point could theoretically make a huge impact.'
He told the PA news agency that BMI is not a good predictor for a child's obesity risk in later life but the genetic predictor can offer insight into the risk from early years.
'Essentially it's fixed at conception already very early in life, you're able to essentially quantify what someone's innate predisposition is for BMI,' he said.
'So, being able to say something about someone's innate biology for obesity risk.'
Meanwhile, the research team also looked at people taking part in 'intensive lifestyle intervention' programmes.
People with a higher risk score lost more weight, but were also more likely to regain it.
Prof Smit added: 'There is a huge amount of variation in how people respond to these interventions.
'What we observed was the higher someone's score was, the more they tended to respond to the intervention – people who had a higher score tended to lose more weight in the first year.
'And we also saw that people who had the higher scores tended to gain more weight.'
Dr Kaitlin Wade, associate professor in epidemiology at the University of Bristol and second author on the paper, said: 'Obesity is a major public health issue, with many factors contributing to its development, including genetics, environment, lifestyle and behaviour.
'These factors likely vary across a person's life, and we believe that some of these originate in childhood.
'We were delighted to contribute data from the Children of the 90s study to this exceptional and insightful research into the genetic architecture of obesity.
'We hope this work will contribute to detecting individuals at high risk of developing obesity at an earlier age, which could have a vast clinical and public health impact in the future.'
Solve the daily Crossword
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
The nerve-zapping device that ‘could help improve your fitness'
A small device that zaps a major nerve connecting the heart and brain could help improve fitness, an early trial suggests. The device, clipped to the outer ear, sends gentle electrical pulses to increase the activity of the vagus nerve, which plays a key role in regulating heart function. Wearing the stimulator for just 30 minutes a day increased oxygen intake during exercise, according to researchers, who hope it could one day be used to help people who are not very active. The study, led by researchers at University College London and Queen Mary University of London, involved 28 healthy volunteers. Half were given the nerve stimulator to wear for 30 minutes every day for a week, while the other half were given a dummy device. Following a two-week break, the groups swapped devices. All of those taking part in the trial had an exercise test at the beginning and end of the week they wore the stimulator. The trial, published in the European Heart Journal, found those wearing the nerve stimulator were able to exercise more intensely than when wearing the dummy device. After a week, the stimulator increased oxygen intake during exercise by 4 per cent. It also boosted maximum breathing rate by an average of four breaths per minute, and maximum heart rate by four beats per minute during exercise. Gareth Ackland, a professor of perioperative medicine at Queen Mary University of London School of Medicine, said: 'Maintaining physical activity is essential for every aspect of cardiovascular, emotional, and cognitive health. 'The outcome of the trial is consistent with the significant body of evidence pointing to an important role of the brain in optimising exercise performance and regulating the activity of the immune system, helped by the vagus nerve'. Blood samples were also take from five people, with researchers suggesting wearing the nerve stimulator for a week helped reduce inflammation. Prof Ackland added: 'We will need to carry out larger trials to confirm our findings, but the results of this study in healthy volunteers suggest that increasing vagus nerve activity can improve fitness and reduce inflammation, potentially offering new approaches to improve heart health.' Professor Bryan Williams, chief scientific and medical officer at the British Heart Foundation, which funded the study, said: 'This early study suggests that a simple technology, which harnesses the connection between the heart and the brain, can lead to improvements in fitness and exercise tolerance. 'While more research is needed involving people with cardiovascular disease, this could one day be used as a tool to improve wellbeing and quality of life for people with heart failure.'


CBS News
2 hours ago
- CBS News
140,000 Minnesotans could lose health care coverage over federal Medicaid cuts, analysis shows
A new state analysis found that up to 140,000 Minnesotans could lose health care coverage due to federal Medicaid spending cuts. The Minnesota Department of Human Services said Monday that Minnesota will also lose nearly $1.5 billion in federal funds over the first four years of implementation of President Trump's so-called "big, beautiful bill." According to state officials, people not on Medicaid could see higher health care costs, too. "The loss in coverage within Medicaid will contribute to more uncompensated care for providers and raise costs more broadly in the system for people who are privately insured," John Connolly, deputy commissioner of the Department of Human Services, said. "Because providers will feel that stress and not have a source of payment for people who lose Medicaid coverage and need to cover their costs broadly, and so that means more out-of-pocket costs, potentially, for consumers." Even though Mr. Trump signed the bill into law earlier this month, many of the Medicaid provisions will kick in over the next few years.
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Yahoo
New study says self-test could prevent up to 1,000 cervical cancer cases a year
About a third of women are overdue for their appointment for life-saving cervical cancer screening – due to embarrassment, discomfort or simply not having enough time to attend. But offering women an at-home self-test could prevent as many as 1,000 cases of cervical cancer every year, a study led by Queen Mary University of London with King's College London found. More than 3,000 women are diagnosed with cervical cancer each year in the UK. It has been estimated that the number would be 5,000 higher if it weren't for cervical screening. The number of women participating in cervical screening has been falling, and in 2024, only 66 per cent of those eligible for screening were up to date. It tests for a virus called human papillomavirus (HPV), which can cause changes in the cervix and in some cases, can lead to cervical cancer. 'Cervical cancer is the most preventable of cancers. Women born before 1990 will not benefit from the HPV vaccination. But they can reduce their risk by 80 to 90 per cent if they get screened regularly,' Professor Peter Sasieni from Queen Mary University of London explained. In the study, published in the journal EClinicalMedicine, researchers recruited 13 GP practices in West London to find out the benefits of offering women a take-home test. These practices were divided into two groups, with about 6,000 women who were overdue for their screening in each group. One group of GP practices made in-person kit offers to women who were at least six months overdue for their cervical screening, the other group did not. For the first group, when women attended their GP practice for any reason, their doctor or nurse was encouraged to offer them a self-sampling kit. In the study, people who were 15 months overdue for cervical screening were randomised each month. Half received no special communication, a quarter were mailed a self-sampling kit, and a quarter were sent a letter offering a kit. Of the 449 women opportunistically offered a kit in a GP appointment, 234 (52 per cent) accepted and returned a sample. However, the uptake of self-sampling after a postal offer was lower: 12 per cent among those sent a kit, and just 5 per cent for women sent a letter offering a kit. Researchers estimate that if this approach were adopted across the NHS, 1,000 cases of cervical cancer could be prevented. Home-testing kits for HPV will soon be offered to people in England who are overdue for cervical cancer screening, giving women and people with a cervix the option to stay up to date with cervical screening without needing an internal examination. Dr Anita Lim, lead epidemiologist on the study from King's College London, said: 'These findings are directly relevant to current efforts to modernise cervical screening in England. Self-sampling gives women greater control over how and when they get screened. 'This study reinforces that many women welcome the option - particularly when it's offered in person by a trusted healthcare professional. A simple change like this could have a major impact on preventing cervical cancer.' There are about 100 types of HPV, and only 30 can affect the genital area. Many people never show symptoms as they can arise years after an infection, and the majority of cases go away without treatment. Vaccinating against HPV is almost 90 per cent effective at preventing cervical cancer in women in their twenties who were offered it at age 12 to 13, according to Cancer Research UK. But the best way to prevent cervical cancer in those not vaccinated when they were young is through screening, reducing the risk by 80 per cent. Fiona Osgun, head of health information at Cancer Research UK, said: "We know that almost a third of people in the UK tell us they are overdue their appointment - whether that's due to discomfort, embarrassment, or simply struggling for time. "That's why we welcomed the government's decision last month to roll out cervical home screening kits in England for people who don't take up their invite. This study shows that offering these kits during GP appointments could be part of an effective approach to making screening more accessible and remove barriers. "It's important to remember that cervical screening is for people without symptoms so, if you notice any unusual changes for you, don't wait for a screening invitation - speak to your doctor."