How Senate Democrats' campaign chair sees the 2026 map: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today's edition, Bridget Bowman speaks with Kirsten Gillibrand, the chair of Senate Democrats' campaign arm, about how the map is shaping up ahead of next year's midterm elections. Plus, Andrea Mitchell looks at Elon Musk's lasting legacy in Washington.
— Adam Wollner
How Senate Democrats' campaign chair sees the 2026 map
Democrats will have to win some red states if they have any hope of taking control of the Senate next year. And the senator tasked with leading that effort believes President Donald Trump has given them an opening after he won those states easily months ago.
'I look at the map, and every state's on the table because of this growing backlash that President Trump's decisions have created, with his cuts to Medicaid and his unwillingness to address affordability issues,' Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., told NBC News in an interview at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee headquarters on Wednesday.
Gillibrand also said she isn't ruling out taking sides in Democratic primaries as her party looks to net four Senate seats to take control of the chamber, saying she is 'definitely not ruling out anything in any state.'
'We're going to look at every state on a case-by-case basis and make our assessment as to who's the best candidate in that state, and then make decisions based on that,' Gillibrand said.
Battleground targets: Democrats' ripest targets in 2026 are GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, which Trump lost by nearly 7 percentage points in November, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, which Trump won by 3 points. Both incumbents are battle-tested, winning contested races in their last cycles on the ballot.
Former Democratic Rep. Wiley Nickel has already launched a run in North Carolina, while former House staffer Jordan Wood is running in Maine. But Democrats are still eyeing Maine Gov. Janet Mills and former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper as possible recruits.
Venturing into Trump country: Even if Democrats win those two states, and hold onto their current seats in other battlegrounds, they would still need to flip two additional Senate seats in states Trump won by double digits last year to get to a majority. That could mean targeting ruby red states like Texas, Iowa, Alaska, South Carolina and others.
Democrats do not currently hold a single Senate seat in the 24 states that Trump carried in all three of his presidential runs, after several red-state losses in 2024. And Trump won each of those states by double digits last year.
Gillibrand said the 'magic formula' for Democratic success involves a combination of 'deep Republican backlash' to Trump and some of his policies, like slashing social safety net programs and imposing steep tariffs, and 'extraordinarily strong candidates who represent their states well,' as well as boosts from the DSCC to help those candidates build up their campaigns.
Analysis by Andrea Mitchell
Much of the discussion around Elon Musk's departure from the White House has focused on how the Department of Government Efficiency failed to reach its lofty spending-cuts goal and the political fallout from the billionaire megadonor's break from President Donald Trump over the 'big, beautiful bill.'
But what has gone more overlooked is how Musk transformed the government in profound ways in a very short period of time.
Musk has faced criticism for leaving Washington without achieving his initial goal of slashing the government spending by an eye-popping $2 trillion (or even his scaled-back target of $1 trillion). That would have required him to cut billions of dollars from defense and entitlements. Combined with mandatory payments of interest on the debt, those accounts are where the money is, to paraphrase Willie Sutton on why he robbed banks. But Musk never proposed taking on those sacred cows.
DOGE says it has saved the government $180 billion. Independent groups such as the Partnership for Public Service calculate it actually cost the government $135 billion.
While failing to materially reduce the deficit, Musk did succeed in carrying out an alternate mission — eliminating all but a trickle of foreign aid and slashing the domestic federal workforce to fit a MAGA campaign mandate.
By the State Department's own acknowledgment, 80% of USAID grants were terminated. The World Food Program and CARE, both previously receiving U.S. grants, have reported severe starvation, principally in Sub-Saharan Africa. Secretary of State Marco Rubio testified to Congress that the cancellation of medical services — including antiretroviral HIV/AIDs vaccinations — have not resulted in any deaths. But United Nations agencies and eyewitness accounts by journalists — including Nicholas Kristof of The New York Times — have reported on the deaths of many children, potentially thousands, in Sudan and other conflict zones.
There are other DOGE results that are likely irreversible, including the brain drain caused by the thousands of firings at National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In addition, there is the silencing of the independent and highly regarded Voice of America, previously reaching more than 300 million listeners a week.
Then there's the shuttering of think tanks like the Wilson Center and the U.S. Institute of Peace; the firings of CIA officers who take years to recruit and train; the scaling back of the Veterans Administration and Social Security Administration; and the prospective closure of U.S. embassies and consulates. And there are the cuts to public broadcasting and the Department of Education as well as the sensitive personal data DOGE employees were able to access.
Yes, Mr. Musk has left Washington. But he's certainly left his mark.
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