Russia welcomes Trump's cut to Ukraine's military aid but it could be deadly for Kyiv

Egypt Independent

3 days ago

CNN — The reactions to the Trump administration's decision to
The reactions to the Trump administration's decision to pause some weapons shipments to Ukraine couldn't be more illustrative of the conflict: welcomed by the Kremlin, branded 'inhumane' by Kyiv.
The Pentagon said on Wednesday that it was pausing some aid because it needs to review whether the assistance that is provided to Ukraine is aligned with US President Donald Trump's 'America First' agenda.
But the move could have deadly consequences for Ukraine as the halt on shipments includes missiles for Patriots, the US-made air defense systems that are currently protecting millions of Ukrainian civilians from Russia's increasingly massive daily aerial attacks.
Kyiv endured the biggest ever attack overnight into Friday, with 13 dreadful hours of explosions and buzzing overhead as Russia launched a record 539 drones towards the Ukrainian capital and 11 cruise and ballistic missiles, according to the country's air force.
As the smoke began to clear over the city, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the military for shooting down or jamming the majority of the Russian drones and missiles.
'It is critically important that our partners continue to support us in defending against ballistic missiles. Patriots and the missiles for them are true protectors of life,' he said – a remark clearly aimed at trying to persuade Trump to reconsider the pause.
Zelensky got a chance to make the case directly to Trump when the two spoke by phone on Friday. A readout of the call from Zelensky's office said the two leaders 'agreed that we will work together to strengthen protection of our skies.'
'We are ready for direct projects with the United States and believe this is critically important for security, especially when it comes to drones and related technologies,' the readout said.
No other air defense system can match the Patriots in its effectiveness – but their power comes at a huge cost, their production is limited and the demand for them is growing rapidly around the world, especially in areas deemed by the Trump administration to be more strategically important – such as the Middle East or, southwest Asia and South Korea.
A Patriot system received by Ukraine is seen on the Day of Ukrainian Air Force on August 4, 2024.
Vitalii Nosach/Global'Inhumane' decision
The announcement by the US sent shockwaves through Ukraine, with presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak saying it would be 'very strange' and 'inhumane' to stop supplying missiles that are used to protect civilians.
But despite the panicked reaction, the move was not entirely unexpected. Trump has threatened to withdraw Ukraine's support in a bid to force Kyiv to the negotiating table, and he has previously briefly paused shipments of aid.
While the US was for a long time Ukraine's biggest supporter, singlehandedly covering about 40 percent of Ukraine's military needs, it has not announced any new aid to Ukraine since early January, when Trump returned to power.
Meanwhile, European countries have stepped up their support of Ukraine.
According to the German Kiel Institute, which monitors aid to Ukraine, Europe has now surpassed the US as the biggest donor – having supported Ukraine to the tune of 72 billion euro ($85 billion) in total military aid since the start of the full-scale invasion to the end of April, compared to 65 billion euro ($76.6 billion) from the US.
But the numbers don't tell the whole story.
'Ukraine has a lot of different needs, and some of them can be filled by other suppliers, but some can only be filled by the United States,' Daniel Byman, director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told CNN.
'For ballistic missiles in particular, only the US can provide this. A cut off in those leaves a huge gap in Ukraine and air defenses. And given the kind of daily and horrible Russian attacks, that's very consequential.'
Russia has ramped up its airborne attacks against Ukraine in recent weeks.
Ballistic missiles pose the deadliest threat and, according to Ukrainian officials, Russia fired as many as 80 of these in June alone.
Rescuers work at the site of a Russian missile strike on a residential building during an attack in Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 23.
Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto/Getty Images
While Ukraine managed to shoot some of them down, likely with the Patriot system, the ones that slipped through caused unimaginable suffering. One ballistic missile strike killed 21 people in Dnipro last week. The week before that, 21 people were killed when a ballistic missile hit an apartment building in Kyiv.
Deadly attacks like this will become more frequent if Ukraine loses access to the Patriots, which are widely considered to be among the best air defense systems available.
They are capable of bringing down cruise and hypersonic missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and aircraft. According to analysts, the Ukrainian military has been using them in an extremely effective way, shooting down missiles that Moscow claimed were impossible to intercept, such as the Kinzhal ballistic missiles.
At an estimated cost of about $1.1 billion for each system, the Patriots are by far the most expensive piece of equipment sent by allies to Ukraine. According to the CSIS, missile rounds for the Patriot come in at roughly $4 million each – an incredibly high price tag.
But even if Ukraine had the cash to purchase these systems, which it doesn't, it would find it difficult to source them.
'The production pace of Patriot missiles is low. Not because the US doesn't want to produce more, but because it's very sophisticated – you can't produce thousands a year, you can produce hundreds and you have allies all over the world who need them,' Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, said Thursday during a discussion at the NEST Center, a think tank.
Lockheed Martin, which manufactures the Patriot missiles for the US Army, has been ramping up production to record levels – but even so, it is only able to make just over 500 per year, with a plan to increase production to 650 a year by 2027.
A major $5.5 billion deal between US and German companies to begin manufacturing the Patriot missiles outside of the US for the first time was approved last year following a NATO order of up to 1,000 rounds – but the first deliveries are not expected until several years from now.
President Volodymyr Zelensky finds out about the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system at an undisclosed location in Germany, on June 11, 2024.
Jens Buttner/Reuters
Germany, which has donated several of its Patriot systems to Ukraine in the past, is looking into the option of purchasing some missiles for Ukraine from the US, the spokesperson for the German government said in a news conference on Friday.
Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based defense think tank, said that while global stockpiles of Patriot missiles are not 'critically low,' there are some grounds for concern about shortages.
'The requirement for Patriots, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, is growing significantly,' he said.
He said that given that some of the missiles initially meant for Ukraine were diverted to other allies, including Israel, it was likely that the US wanted to – or even had contractual obligations to – deliver interceptors to countries who are, in some cases, located within range of Iranian missiles.
Still, Kaushal said the US itself is highly unlikely to face any kind of urgent shortage of missiles.
'While the US has sent a considerable number of Patriot interceptors to Ukraine it has replenished stocks through buy-back schemes from Japan and more recent shipments were diverted from export customers rather than the US' own inventory,' he said in a note emailed to CNN.
Boost for Ukraine
Zelensky said previously that Ukraine would need some 25 Patriot batteries to defend its airspace effectively. It has roughly half a dozen at the moment, although the exact numbers and their locations are closely guarded secrets.
What is known, though, is that the Ukrainians are very worried about running out of the munitions – especially because the latest US pause doesn't concern future aid but impacts deliveries that have been approved and funded and were on their way to Ukraine, where the military was counting on receiving them in the very near future.
'One thing is not having future sales approved; another is stopping what is already in the pipeline. And so that's a very negative shift that is harmful for the future defense of Ukraine and the effect is going to be pretty quick. The Russian attacks are happening daily, and Ukraine relies on these systems to counter them,' Byman said.
The pause in shipments is likely to give yet another boost to Russia.
'It's part of (the Russians') strategy. They believe that without the US support, Ukraine is more likely to collapse or at least make concessions… so it certainly increases the incentives for Russia to keep military pressure on Ukraine,' Byman said.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based conflict monitor, said that previous delays in deliveries of aid to Ukraine have invariably accelerated Russian gains on the battlefield.
When the US dragged its feet on military aid in late 2023 and early 2024, Russia pushed forward in Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. When the US paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine in March, Russian forces advanced in Kursk.
'The suspension of US aid to Ukraine will reinforce Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory that posits that Russia can win the war of attrition by making slow, creeping advances and outlasting Western support for Ukraine,' the ISW said.
The pause in shipments will likely reinforce Putin's belief that time is on Russia's side – and that if he can delay negotiations for long enough, his troops will eventually outlast Western assistance to Ukraine.
For Ukrainians, who have sacrificed so much trying to defend their country against a bigger, stronger aggressor, the absence of US military aid is not just yet another setback – it's potentially a disaster.