Space Force's first next-gen missile warning launch pushed to 2026
The satellite is one of two Lockheed Martin-built spacecraft designed to provide early missile-warning capabilities from geosynchronous Earth orbit as part of the Next-Gen OPIR GEO program. According to a new report from the Government Accountability Office, the first satellite will now stay on the ground until at least March of 2026 'due to a crowded 2025 launch manifest.'
GAO has long warned that the program's schedule was likely too ambitious due to the technology requirements for its mission payload, and the agency predicted its launch would likely be delayed by at least one year. Those projections could prove true, but perhaps for more nuanced reasons.
RTX, the program's payload supplier, faced development challenges that delayed its delivery by 13 months to August 2024. While that slowdown consumed most of the program's margin, the satellite has since progressed well through its testing milestones. The service now anticipates the spacecraft will be delivered by September. That means it could have flown this year had there been room in the launch manifest.
GAO notes in its report, released today, that despite those successes — and because of the lack of schedule margin — the program still risks further delay if any issues arise during final integration.
'The program has no buffer in its schedule to first launch; any payload and space vehicle integration delays will likely result in launch delays and program cost increases,' the watchdog agency said.
Next-Gen OPIR is part of a larger multi-orbit strategy to provide missile-warning and tracking capabilities from space. Along with the two GEO satellites, the Space Force has contracted with Northrop Grumman to build two polar-orbiting spacecraft as part of Next-Gen-OPIR.
These four satellites will eventually replace the existing Space-Based Infrared System. The two GEO spacecraft are expected to cost $9.5 billion, and the polar satellites have a total cost estimate of $5.9 billion.
Separately, the Space Development Agency is leading an effort to develop a missile-tracking constellation in low Earth orbit made up of hundreds of small satellites. And the Space Force's primary acquisition arm, Space Systems Command, is spearheading a medium Earth orbit constellation.
GAO's report evaluated progress on the two Next-Gen OPIR Polar spacecraft, finding the program is on track for delivery and launch in 2028 and is meeting its schedule for various program reviews. The report notes that the polar satellites are integrating a modified version of the same mission payload as the GEO spacecraft, which could introduce schedule risk when the program reaches the integration phase.
The report notes that the program approved a cybersecurity strategy last year and plans to run a series of tests this year and a full system assessment in 2027.
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