Looking for a Kentucky Derby long shot? Here are your best bets to win big money

Miami Herald

08-05-2025

Journalism will be tough to beat. Sandman has legitimate star power. Sovereignty could very well be wearing the roses by the end of the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday night.
But recent history indicates a major long shot might be the horse getting all of the attention after the 151st edition of the race is run at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and — even if one of those aforementioned favorites does cross the finish line first — there's likely plenty of money to be made elsewhere.
To win big without betting big on Derby Day, you'll need to either hit on one of those overlooked contenders that finds his way into first — like Mystik Dan did last year at 18-1 odds — or pick out the right combination of horses that finish in the money.
With such a large field size Saturday, there's plenty of betting money to be spread around, and that means there will be plenty to win if you get your handicapping right.
As you finalize your picks for the big race, here are a few long-shot bets to consider.
Picking a long shot to win
Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the deserving favorite Saturday, but the favorite hasn't won the Kentucky Derby since eventual Triple Crown winner Justify did it seven years ago.
Mystik Dan was 18-1 last year. Mage was 15-1 the year before that. Other recent winners include Rich Strike at 81-1 odds three years ago and Country House at 65-1 in 2019.
Point being, a major upset hasn't been the most unexpected result in recent years.
Who's most likely to do it in this field?
Be sure to keep an eye on the Kentucky Derby live odds leading up to post time Saturday, but — as of noon Friday — there were a few intriguing win options at 15-1 or longer.
Going by that '15-1 or longer' standard of a long shot, Final Gambit is one to consider.
The gray colt was actually 30-1 on the morning line but was bet down to 15-1 by Friday afternoon. His color, popular for casual bettors, surely had something to do with that, but there's some real talent here, too.
Final Gambit turned in a career performance in winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park for star trainer Brad Cox last time out, going from last in the 12-horse field in the final turn to a clear winner at the finish line.
He earned only a 90 Beyer Speed Figure for that run — not terrific, by the standards of the Derby field — but there's some intrigue here. He's run his last three races on the synthetic surface at Turfway and his only start before that came over the Churchill Downs turf course.
So, he's never run on dirt. That's not a disqualifier.
Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby at 21-1 odds in his first start on dirt in 2011, and long-shot Rich Strike also raced three times on the synthetic surface at Turfway leading up to his Derby upset three years ago.
While the early betting has taken some value away from Final Gambit, he's still worth consideration as a win bet. That move in the Jeff Ruby Steaks was fantastic, and if he can replicate it Saturday — running into what should be a hot pace that sets up well for closers — he could be there in the end, especially if he can handle the dirt kickback he'll be seeing for the first time in his young career.
While he's not my favorite contender in the field, Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square is another talented closer with intriguing odds. Though 12-1 on the morning line, he was sitting at 16-1 on Friday afternoon despite Rodriguez and Grande being scratched.
That's somewhat of a surprise for a horse that has been training arguably as well as anyone over the Louisville dirt and has local favorite Brian Hernandez Jr. — last year's Derby winner and one of Churchill's all-time leading jockeys — aboard Saturday.
And be sure to keep an eye on Baeza as those live odds are updated Saturday.
The Santa Anita Derby runner-up drew into the race Thursday with the scratch of Rodriguez and — though lightly raced — he has the look of a potential Kentucky Derby winner.
Around the time Baeza got into the field, his odds were hovering around the 50-1 range, but that's because it was unclear if he'd even be eligible for the race. Those odds have shortened quickly since his inclusion and had dropped into the 20-1 range by Friday afternoon.
Expect Baeza's odds to keep getting shorter, but if they level out somewhere around his 12-1 number on the morning line, he'll be a great value as a win bet.
And speaking of great value, Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty was sitting at 9-1 in the live odds Friday afternoon. That's an incredibly enticing number, even if it doesn't fit our definition of a Derby 'long shot.'
Betting tips for Derby trifecta
Even if Journalism — or one of the other favorites — wins the Kentucky Derby, the exotic payoffs could still be lucrative. (And if a relative long shot comes in first, those winnings will be huge.)
Some recent examples:
▪ When Authentic won the 2020 Derby at 8-1 odds, with 3-5 favorite Tiz the Law coming in second, a $1 trifecta ticket still paid more than $1,300 because the third-place finisher was 46-1 shot Mr. Big News.
▪ When Always Dreaming won the 2017 Derby as the 9-2 favorite, the second- and third-place finishers were Lookin At Lee (33-1) and Battle of Midway (40-1). A $1 trifecta wager paid more than $8,000 that year.
▪ And when Mage was the upset winner at 15-1 two years ago, two of the popular betting choices — Two Phil's (9-1) and race favorite Angel of Empire (4-1) — finished second and third, leading to a $1 trifecta payout of $982.
In seven of the last eight Derbys, a $1 trifecta bet has paid at least $982, and at least one horse with 15-1 odds or longer has finished in the top three in each of the past six Derbys.
It's important to note that win pools are different from the exacta, trifecta and superfecta pools, so a horse's listed odds won't correspond exactly to his value in the exotic bets. But those odds are usually a pretty good indicator of who's a long shot and who isn't when it comes to trifectas.
Some candidates — in addition to Final Gambit and Baeza — to spice up those wagers this year:
▪ Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher looks like a colt with a real chance to finish in the money, given his penchant for coming from the back of the pack and ability to be picking off tired horses in the stretch. He's never won a race — so it would be a pretty big shock if he wins his first one Saturday — but it won't be surprising at all to see him going hard at the end.
▪ Chunk of Gold is an interesting colt and will be one of the longest shots on the board. He lost by nearly 10 lengths to Magnitude back in February, but that horse — off the Derby trail with an injury — turned in one of the best performances of the year that day. Chunk of Gold finished second in the Louisiana Derby after that and has been training splendidly at Turfway Park ever since.
▪ East Avenue has been a perplexing horse over his past four races, with two great performances at Keeneland bookending two absolute duds elsewhere. Of those long shots likely to vie for the early lead Saturday, he seems the best bet to hang around at the end. If he can improve off his gritty run in the Blue Grass Stakes, he could make the trifecta.
Good Derby horses if it rains?
The weather forecast for Louisville on Saturday is not pretty, with rain almost certain to hit at some point and heavy downpours possible throughout the day.
So, what if it rains?
While several in this field have run on 'off' tracks before, there's not a whole lot of meaningful history there for anyone in this race. None of the major Kentucky Derby prep races were run in particularly adverse conditions this year.
The only horse here that has run on a track labeled as 'sloppy' in 2025 is long-shot Neoequos, who was the wire-to-wire winner of a 6-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park over the slop back in January. Not exactly a great indicator of anything for Saturday.
The three top favorites — Journalism, Sandman and Sovereignty — have 19 career races among them, and each of those was run over a fast surface.
American Promise did get his first career win over a 'muddy' track at Oaklawn Park on Dec. 29, earning a 95 Beyer — tied for his fastest figure in nine starts — in that race at 1 1/16 miles.
Japanese star Luxor Cafe technically has three victories over off tracks this year, but all three of those surfaces were labeled as 'good.'
One to watch if it pours is Coal Battle, the feel-good-story colt who beat Sandman, Publisher and Tiztastic in the Rebel Stakes before a third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby last time out.
Coal Battle is 2-for-2 on wet tracks — both short races in Louisiana at age 2 — and while neither of those starts can compare to the Kentucky Derby, they at least show he's comfortable in the rain.
The bigger indicator for possible success in the slop with Coal Battle is the way he runs. This is a fun colt to watch. He has shown some great acceleration in his races and has displayed a stop-and-start ability in morning workouts that lends itself to surefootedness over wet tracks.
There are definitely concerns that Coal Battle won't be able to handle the 1¼-mile distance Saturday, but when 3-year-olds get met with this new challenge plus adverse weather conditions for the first time, a lot of preconceived notions can go out the window, and the ones who are comfortable running over the mud can find a way to skip past 'better' horses in the field.
That could very well happen Saturday, and Coal Battle is going to be one of the longest shots on the board. Don't ignore him if its a rainy day in Louisville.