Commentary: Elon Musk has launched his own party – US history suggests it will fail

CNA

9 hours ago

NOTTINGHAM, England: To paraphrase a very old joke, how do you make a small fortune in America? Start with a large fortune and fund a third political party. American political history is littered with the wrecks of challengers who thought they could break the two-party system and failed.
This makes Elon Musk's launch of his own new political party as an act of defiance following his falling out with US President Donald Trump even more intriguing.
What do we mean by a two-party system though? Since the 1860s, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated the US political landscape, holding the presidency, Congress and the vast majority of elected positions. Attempts at third parties have usually floundered at the ballot box.
Some have lasted only for a few electoral cycles, including the Progressive Party in the 1910s and the Citizens Party of the 1980s, while others like the Libertarian Party and Green Party have lasted decades and, in some cases, managed some electoral success at the local level.
But this is where an important distinction has to be made between third parties and third-party candidates. Because the US system is so personality-driven rather than party focused compared to Europe, quite often third parties have been built around a single person.
A good example is the previously mentioned Progressive Party. It was founded in 1912 by former president Theodore Roosevelt after he split from the Republicans. Without him it quickly faded away.
The Reform Party was created by billionaire Ross Perot in 1995 after he managed to get 18.9 per cent of the vote in the 1992 presidential election. While it continued without him for some years, it was a shell of its former self.
Other parties like the Socialist, Libertarian and Green parties have sprung from more organic movements and thus have been more successful at a local or state level.
When you look at recent polling though, it seems strange that the two parties continue to dominate. Public dissatisfaction with politics as usual seems at an all-time high.
In a recent Pew Research poll when asked whether 'I often wish there were more political parties to choose from' describes their views, 37 per cent of respondents answered: 'Very well' and 31 per cent answered: 'Somewhat well'.
In another poll, 25 per cent of respondents said that neither of the two main parties represented their interests.
So if there is an appetite for some sort of change, why have so few challengers succeeded? The two main parties seem entrenched to the point where it resembles a cartel.
ODDS STACKED AGAINST THIRD-PARTY INSURGENCY
The first and arguably most important reason is the electoral system. First past the post does not guarantee a two-party system (look at Britain, for instance).
But political scientist Maurice Duverger argued that it does mean that the two main parties have a significant advantage. There are prizes for coming first and second, nothing for third place.
Equally, many of the big prizes in American politics such as the presidency and state governorships are indivisible and cannot be shared. So it has become received wisdom that voting for anyone other than Democrats or Republicans is a wasted vote.
In these cases, people either vote for what they perceive to be the lesser of two evils or stay at home, rather than voting for a candidate with no chance or that they may not support.
The other multi-billion-dollar elephant in the room is money. The sheer cost of running for elections in recent years means that any third party is unlikely to be able to raise the funds to be truly competitive. At the last election, the Democrats and Republicans spent hundreds of millions of dollars (which isn't even counting all of the super-PAC money spent on their behalf).
Whenever billionaires like Perot have attempted to self-fund a party, they have left themselves open to the accusation that it's a vanity project or lacks true mass appeal.
There is also the fact that to run successfully you must have media coverage. The media tends to focus almost exclusively on the two main parties. This creates a 'chicken and egg' situation where you need success to help raise money and media coverage, but it's difficult to be successful without first having money and media coverage.
The final reasons are that of the open primary and ideological flexibility of the main parties. Trump briefly considered running as president for the Reform Party back in 2000. In 2016, the open primary system that both main parties use meant that he could impose himself on the Republican Party despite most of the party elite despising him.
Why bother starting your own party when you can run for one that already exists? It could now be argued that the Republicans have effectively become the Trump or MAGA party, although whether this will survive his presidency is open to debate.
MONEY, MONEY, MONEY
Elon Musk has, for the moment, money to burn. Whether he's willing to invest in the long term to turn this into more than a vanity project remains to be seen.
He also has charisma and a national platform to amplify his voice like few others. But, having been born outside America, he can't run for president.
If he's serious about electoral success, he'd have to find someone to run, and that would mean, effectively, they'd lead his party. Musk's public persona suggests that he does not play well with others.
Founding a third party isn't impossible, but unless there is a political earthquake it seems difficult to see how one could succeed.