From Trade Tensions To Trade Deals, Tax Cuts In Second Half
After four years of fiscally fueled expansion post-pandemic, US economic growth is decelerating. Policy and trade uncertainty, coupled with high interest rates, are weighing heavily on the outlook. Previously indicated by 'soft' confidence data, the slowdown is now evident in 'hard' economic figures. Although headline non-farm payrolls saw an unexpected rise in June, gains were primarily driven by government jobs, with private payroll growth falling to its lowest since October last year. Continuing jobless claims, which have surged since April, are now at their highest since 2021. This slowing job market is directly impacting consumption, the primary driver of the US economy, as reflected in a 0.3% month-on-month contraction in US real personal spending in May. The housing market and private investment also remain weak.
To counteract this slowdown, the US budget for the fiscal year commencing October 1 is poised to deliver a substantial fiscal stimulus. The budget is estimated to provide a net positive impact of USD 3.4 trillion to the USD 30 trillion economy over the next decade. This includes approximately USD 4.5 trillion in tax cuts, extending Trump's 2017 tax reductions and introducing new breaks for businesses, tips, overtime pay, and auto loans, among others. While the budget also incorporates USD 1.1 trillion in spending cuts across healthcare, food, and clean energy incentives, the net fiscal boost is expected to more than offset the negative impact of tariffs on growth. The budget further addressed fiscal concerns by raising the US debt ceiling by USD 5 trillion, mitigating the immediate risk of a sovereign default.
This fiscal stimulus is likely to be complemented by monetary easing. The slowing growth trajectory is strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume rate cuts, following a pause since last year. Despite the surprisingly resilient June jobs report leading money markets to price out any chance of a rate cut in July, markets are still anticipating 52 basis points (bps) of rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 70% probability of a cut in September, and a projected terminal rate of around 3.1% by the end of 2026. Although Fed Chair Powell has reiterated a stance of holding rates until the inflationary impact of tariffs becomes clearer, other Fed governors have already argued for a July rate cut. A deterioration in the job market would likely accelerate the pace of cuts.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has slumped to a three-year low, and Standard Chartered anticipates the USD to remain weak over a 6-12 month horizon, primarily due to concerns over rising US debt and expectations of Fed rate cuts. However, technical and positioning indicators suggest the USD is currently oversold, indicating a potential for a near-term technical bounce. Investors are advised to utilize any such short-term rebound, potentially coinciding with the conclusion of key trade deals, as an opportune moment to diversify their portfolios into non-US equity markets, particularly in Asia-ex-Japan, and into Emerging Market local currency bonds.
The progress of trade deals with key US partners in the coming weeks will be crucial in reducing significant market uncertainty, especially ahead of Trump's self-imposed July 9 deadline. So far, the US has reached broad framework trade agreements with the UK, China, and Vietnam. Agreements with India, South Korea, and the European Union are expected to be finalized shortly. A deal with Japan, however, might take longer to materialize, given political sensitivities surrounding core issues like auto exports and rice imports ahead of Japan's Upper House election on July 20.
The UK deal sets a 10% baseline tariff for most partners. In contrast, Vietnam has agreed to a 20% tariff on all exports to the US and a substantial 40% tariff on goods transshipped through its economy. It remains unclear whether other transshipment hubs, especially those in Asia used by China in recent years, will face similar tariffs. China's reaction to these transshipment tariffs will also be closely monitored by global markets. Related
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The Star
an hour ago
- The Star
Analysis-Trump's tariff deadline delay brings hope, confusion to trade partners, businesses
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff delay provided some hope to major trade partners Japan, South Korea and the European Union that deals to ease duties could still be reached, while bewildering some smaller exporters such as South Africa and leaving companies with no clarity on the path forward. Trump's form letters to 14 countries informing them of planned tariff rates of 25% to 40% provided what he called a final warning on his "reciprocal" tariffs, while pushing back Wednesday's previous deadline to August 1, a date he said on Tuesday was final, declaring: "No extensions will be granted." The move reflects Trump's frustration with trade negotiations that are proving lengthier and more complicated than the "90 deals in 90 days" that he expected, trade experts and administration officials say. The president, who announced on Tuesday a 50% tariff on imported copper and said long-threatened levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals were coming soon,said he has long favored simple tariffs over tedious trade talks that often involve red lines for some countries and their own requests for U.S. concessions. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba focused on the positive, saying his government would press ahead with negotiations toward a deal that "benefits both countries, while protecting Japan's national interest." Facing a 25% general U.S. tariff, Japan wants relief for its export-dependent auto industry from Trump's separate 25% automotive tariffs. It also has resisted demands for increased purchases of American rice. Japan, once viewed as an early favorite for a deal, faces an upper house election on July 20 and too many concessions could put Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party at risk. "These countries are not folding. They're not giving him what he wants, so he's added another threat," said William Reinsch, a former U.S. Commerce Department official who is a senior trade adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "He's put a new number to it and extended the deadline." South Korea, where President Lee Jae Myung has been in office less than a month, also pledged to intensify talks for "a mutually beneficial result" while analysts warned he would not be "a pushover" for Trump or put South Korea at a disadvantage to Japan. Stephen Miran, chairman of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, told Fox News on Tuesday more deals were possible even before the end of this week, as long as countries made concessions deemed worthy by Trump. India, in particular, looked close to a deal, but prospects were less clear for smaller countries such as South Africa, Thailand and Malaysia, which face tariffs of 30%, 36% and 25%, respectively. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa pushed back on Trump's 30% tariff rate, calling it out of sync with an average 7.6% South African tariff rate. But he instructed his negotiators to "urgently engage" with Trump's team on a framework first submitted by the South African side on May 20. The Trump administration's negotiating time may be eaten up with larger partners, such as the EU, which did not get a warning letter or a change to its prescribed 20% tariff rate, double the 10% baseline. Sources familiar with the EU talks have told Reuters a deal could involve carve-outs for aircraft and parts, medical equipment and alcoholic spirits. They say the EU also wants certain automakers to export to the U.S. at rates below the 25% auto tariff. Such a deal would be similar to a framework agreement with the United Kingdom that had carve-outs for autos, steel and aircraft engines. FINAL SQUEEZE After announcing his global "Liberation Day" tariffs of 11%-50% in early April, Trump quickly dialed them back to 10% for most countries amid bond market turmoil to buy time for negotiations to lower foreign tariffs and trade barriers. Ryan Majerus, another former U.S. Commerce official, said Trump's three-month pause had not produced the desired results, and now the president was seeking to maximize his negotiating leverage. "They're going to pressure-test things and see how far they can go, particularly for countries where there hasn't been any movement in the talks," said Majerus, who is a partner at Washington's King and Spalding law firm. Steadier markets and strong economic data give Trump some room to maneuver, but time is short and "the more granular you get in negotiating these things, the tougher the sledding gets," he added. The deadline extension provides no relief to companies that are trying to keep up with Trump's tariffs. Executives say the rapidly shifting tariff landscape has paralyzed decision-making as they try to adjust their supply chains and cost structures to avoid tariff-induced price hikes. "No company can really prepare for this," said Hubertus Breier, chief technology officer for Germany's Lapp Holdings, a family-owned maker of cables, wires and robotics for factories. "We are already incurring losses simply because of the uncertainty of the daily changing situation." Lapp has difficult choices - absorb additional costs or pass them on to customers. Assuming permanently higher prices and costs, however, could threaten its long-term existence, Breier added. DeMejico, a family business in Valencia, California with a plant in Mexico that builds traditional Spanish and Mexican-style furniture, is struggling to adapt to Trump's 50% tariffs on imported steel. Robert Luna, the company's president, said the firm is importing heavy steel latches, hinges and trim parts separately to simplify the tariff calculation process and installing them at its Los Angeles-area showroom. The tariffs and higher U.S. wage costs are already inflating prices, and DeMejico faces further cost increases on furniture if Trump hits Mexico with a reciprocal tariff, Luna said. "It's hard to do anything about this as a small business owner, so I just try to be stoic and see what happens," Luna said, adding: "My biggest worry is just keeping the company alive." Luna said he thought the Trump administration was "setting up the foundation to train people to pay tariffs." (Reporting by David Lawder and Andrea Shalal in Washington, Timothy Aeppel in New York and Max Schwarz and Tilman Blasshofer in Frankfurt; additional reporting by Doina Chiacu in Washington; Writing by David Lawder; Editing by Paul Simao)
Malaysian Reserve
4 hours ago
- Malaysian Reserve
$2.35 Billion by 2030: Why In Situ Hybridization Is Revolutionizing Molecular Diagnostics
DELRAY BEACH, Fla. , July 8, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — What's driving the shift to spatially resolved molecular analysis? The global in situ hybridization market, valued at USD 1.64 billion in 2025, is projected to reach USD 2.35 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.4%. This growth is driven by the expanding role of ISH in precision medicine, laboratory-developed tests (LDTs), and spatial transcriptomics. Technological innovations—including multiplex ISH, high-sensitivity probes, and automation—are enabling more accurate, efficient, and spatially resolved gene expression analysis in both clinical and research settings. From oncology to neuroscience, ISH is paving the way for advanced diagnostics and next-generation therapeutic strategies. Download PDF Brochure: Why is ISH becoming a molecular game-changer? In Situ Hybridization methods such as FISH and RNA-ISH are increasingly used to detect patient-specific genetic markers at the single-cell level. These techniques offer greater specificity and spatial resolution than conventional assays. For instance, Molecular Instruments' HCR Pro RNA-ISH LDT (Feb 2025) now enables differentiation between psoriasis and atopic dermatitis based on biopsy-derived immunologic markers—transforming diagnostics for millions with chronic skin conditions. Key players like Precision for Medicine, Scantox, and Plus Therapeutics are leveraging ISH to support oncology, gene therapy, and neurodegenerative disease research, further embedding these tools in drug development pipelines and personalized treatment planning. What challenges does ISH solve? ISH technologies address a number of persistent issues in molecular and histopathological diagnostics: Enables precise spatial mapping of gene expression across accuracy in difficult diagnoses where IHC or sequencing alone falls shortSupports multi-target detection for robust biomarker discovery and translational research through integration of transcriptomic and proteomic analyses. For example, Roche's FDA-cleared VENTANA Kappa and Lambda Dual ISH mRNA assay (Jan 2025) enhances lymphoma subtype detection, representing a breakthrough in ISH-based molecular diagnostics. Where is adoption accelerating the fastest? While North America leads with the largest market share due to established infrastructure and funding, rapid growth is forecasted in the Asia Pacific, driven by rising cancer incidence, government funding, and diagnostic modernization. Key momentum drivers include: China, India, and Japan investing heavily in molecular pathology labs expanding ISH capabilities for cancer and infectious disease academic and CRO adoption of automated, scalable ISH platforms. Request Sample Pages : Who are the key leaders—and how are they gaining ground? The ISH market is consolidated, with 5 major players holding 60–65% of global market share: F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd (Switzerland): Leading in automated ISH diagnostics, including BenchMark ULTRA PLUS and FDA-cleared lymphoma probes. Danaher (US): Through Leica Biosystems, focuses on integrated automation and spatial biology (US): Dominant in ISH probes for oncology and cytogenetics under the VYSIS (US): RNAscope portfolio expansion to 70,000+ probes position it as a spatial transcriptomics Fisher Scientific (US): Offers a comprehensive suite of ISH instruments and consumables. Recent innovations include: Leica + Bio-Techne (Apr 2025): Automated RNAscope Multiomic LS for spatial + Molecular Instruments (Jan 2025): Launched HCR Pro RNA-ISH for high-sensitivity (Jan 2025): FDA-cleared B-cell ISH + Biocare (Mar 2025): NeoPATH Pro ISH system distributed in the US. What's the biggest challenge—and how do we overcome it? Despite promising advances, high costs and technical complexity remain barriers: Capital investment: ISH instruments like Ventana Benchmark Ultra cost ~$100, Multiplex probe kits and imaging services are costly, with per-slide fees reaching $113 or protocols: Require skilled personnel and careful costs: Advanced scanners such as Vectra can cost $200/hour to operate. Solutions must focus on: User-friendly automation platforms with streamlined optimization to reduce cost per initiatives to expand technical modular platforms for research and clinical users alike. What should diagnostics leaders be asking now? Not 'Is ISH useful?'—but rather: How can ISH improve our ability to detect spatial gene expression at single-cell resolution?Which multiplexing and automation technologies can scale with our diagnostics needs?Are our assays ready for regulatory validation and clinical deployment?How can we integrate transcriptomics and proteomics within one platform? Final Thought: In Spatial Precision, There Is Power. In Multiplexing, There Is Clarity. As genomics shifts toward spatial, multiplexed, and clinically actionable diagnostics, in situ hybridization is evolving from a research tool into a cornerstone of precision healthcare. It's not just about detection anymore—it's about localization, integration, and transformation of diagnostics. In the future of molecular medicine, personalization begins with precision—and ISH is leading the charge. Key Market Players: F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd (Switzerland), Danaher (US), Abbott (US), Bio-Techne (US), Thermo Fisher Scientific (US), Bioview (Israel), Biocare Medical (US), Agilent Technologies (US), QIAGEN (Germany), CytoTest Inc. (US), Genemed Biotechnologies (US), ZytoVision GmbH (Germany), Abnova (Taiwan) For more information, Inquire Now! Related Reports: Companion Diagnostics Market Immunohistochemistry Market Tissue Diagnostics Market Immuno Oncology Assays Market Cancer Diagnostics Market Get access to the latest updates on Top Companies in In Situ Hybridization and In Situ Hybridization Market Size About MarketsandMarkets™: MarketsandMarkets™ has been recognized as one of America's Best Management Consulting Firms by Forbes, as per their recent report. MarketsandMarkets™ is a blue ocean alternative in growth consulting and program management, leveraging a man-machine offering to drive supernormal growth for progressive organizations in the B2B space. With the widest lens on emerging technologies, we are proficient in co-creating supernormal growth for clients across the globe. Today, 80% of Fortune 2000 companies rely on MarketsandMarkets, and 90 of the top 100 companies in each sector trust us to accelerate their revenue growth. With a global clientele of over 13,000 organizations, we help businesses thrive in a disruptive ecosystem. The B2B economy is witnessing the emergence of $25 trillion in new revenue streams that are replacing existing ones within this decade. We work with clients on growth programs, helping them monetize this $25 trillion opportunity through our service lines – TAM Expansion, Go-to-Market (GTM) Strategy to Execution, Market Share Gain, Account Enablement, and Thought Leadership Marketing. Built on the 'GIVE Growth' principle, we collaborate with several Forbes Global 2000 B2B companies to keep them future-ready. Our insights and strategies are powered by industry experts, cutting-edge AI, and our Market Intelligence Cloud, KnowledgeStore™, which integrates research and provides ecosystem-wide visibility into revenue shifts. To find out more, visit or follow us on Twitter , LinkedIn and Facebook . Contact:Mr. Rohan SalgarkarMarketsandMarkets™ INC.1615 South Congress 103, Delray Beach, FL 33445USA: +1-888-600-6441Email: sales@ Our Website: Logo; View original content:
Malaysia Sun
4 hours ago
- Malaysia Sun
Trump Says New Tariff Deadline Not 100 Percent Firm
Trump sent letters to trading partners including key US allies Japan and South Korea, announcing that duties he had suspended in April would snap back even more steeply in three weeks, AFP reported. Tokyo and Seoul would be hit with 25 percent tariffs on their goods, he wrote. Countries including Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, South Africa and Malaysia were slapped with duties ranging from 25 percent to 40 percent. But in a move that will cause fresh uncertainty in a global economy already unsettled by his tariffs, the 79-year-old once again left the countries room to negotiate a deal. I would say firm, but not 100 percent firm, Trump told reporters at a dinner with visiting Israeli regime prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu when asked if August 1 deadline was firm. Pressed on whether the letters were his final offer, Trump replied: I would say final but if they call with a different offer, and I like it, then well do it. The US president had unveiled sweeping tariffs on imports on what he called Liberation Day on April 2, including a baseline 10 percent tariff on all countries. But he quickly suspended all tariffs above 10 percent for 90 days following turmoil in the markets. They were due to kick back in on Wednesday and Trump sent the letters in advance of that deadline. Trumps near-identically worded letters to Japanese and South Korean leaders said he would impose 25 percent tariffs as their trading relationships with Washington were unfortunately, far from Reciprocal. He warned of further escalation if there was retaliation against the levies. But Trump on Monday also signed an order formally extending the Wednesday deadline, postponing it to August 1. The new August date effectively marks a further delay and Trumps latest comments threaten to compound the uncertainty over when the deadline really is. According to letters posted to Trumps Truth Social platform, products from Indonesia will face a 32 percent tariff, while the level for Bangladesh is 35 percent and Thailand, 36 percent. Most countries receiving letters so far had duties similar or unchanged from rates threatened in April, although some like Laos and Cambodia saw notably lower levels. The Trump administration is under pressure to show results after promising 90 deals in 90 days. So far only two firm deals have emerged, with Britain and Vietnam, plus an agreement to dial back super-high tit-for-tat tariffs with China. Japans Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said at a cabinet meeting Monday that the announcement of the 25 percent tariffs is genuinely regrettable, local media reported. South Koreas National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac meanwhile met with his US counterpart Marco Rubio in Washington, expressing hope that a bilateral summit could soon be held to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes across key pending issues. Asked why Trump opted to start with Japan and South Korea, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said: Its the presidents prerogative, and those are the countries he chose. Thailands acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai said Tuesday he wanted a better deal than the 36 percent tariff Trump threatened to impose, adding: The most important thing is that we maintain good relations with the US. Malaysia said it was committed to continuing engagement with the US toward a balanced, mutually beneficial, and comprehensive trade agreement, its trade ministry said in a statement, after Washington imposed a 25 percent tariff on the Southeast Asian nation. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that there would be more deals coming up: We are going to have several announcements in the next 48 hours. Trump has also threatened an extra 10 percent tariff on countries aligning themselves with the emerging BRICS nations, accusing them of Anti-American policies after they slammed his duties at a summit. But partners are still rushing to avert Trumps tariffs altogether. The European Commission said EU chief Ursula von der Leyen had a good exchange with Trump on trade when the pair spoke Sunday.
