IMD says monsoon might reach many parts of North-West India by June 25

Business Standard

12-06-2025

After stalling since May 26, the southwest monsoon is expected to make a strong revival, covering most parts of Central and East India by June 18 and subsequently advancing over many parts of Northwest India during the following week, ending June 25.
Northwest India includes the capital Delhi and its adjoining regions, which have been reeling from a severe heatwave in recent days.
The heatwave is expected to abate over most parts of North India in the next two days, with temperatures likely to drop by 2–3 degrees Celsius (°C), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Overall, rainfall activity is likely to be above normal across most parts of the country, except for the South Peninsular region, where below-normal rainfall is expected during the week ending June 19, the Met department added.
The pause in the southwest monsoon after its early onset has pushed the rainfall deficit to nearly 34 per cent, compared to around 25 per cent as of June 9.
The IMD said neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently prevail over the Equatorial Pacific region. The latest climate model forecasts suggest that these neutral conditions are likely to persist throughout the monsoon season.
Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are also being observed over the Indian Ocean. However, the latest forecast indicates that weak negative IOD conditions are likely to develop during the season.
The Met department added that the Madden-Julian Oscillation, another weather phenomenon that influences the southwest monsoon, is likely to remain weak in the coming weeks.
'No significant change in maximum temperatures is likely over Northwest and Central India during the next two to three days, followed by a gradual fall of 2–4°C. In East India, no major change is expected in maximum temperatures over the next 24 hours, followed by a gradual drop of 2–3°C over the subsequent four days,' the Met said.
For the week starting June 19, the IMD said maximum temperatures are likely to decrease over Northwest India compared to the previous week.
'These are likely to be below normal across most parts of the country, except for areas in Northwest India — specifically the Western Himalayan region and Rajasthan — where temperatures are expected to remain near normal,' the Met department said.
For the June to September period, the IMD has revised its monsoon forecast for 2025 upwards to 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), compared to 105 per cent predicted in April. It also forecast that June rainfall would be above normal, at over 108 per cent of LPA.
The seasonal forecast carries a margin of error of plus/minus 4 per cent. The LPA of seasonal rainfall over the country for the period 1971–2020 is 87 centimetres.
The Met department also said that the monsoon is expected to be normal to above normal in almost all homogeneous regions of the country, except the Northeast and parts of Bihar.
Only Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Meghalaya are likely to receive below-normal rainfall this year, the IMD's regional forecast said.