U.S. import pressure raises concerns for Hokkaido agriculture

Japan Times

10 hours ago

Recent pressure on Japan by the United States to import more American rice, soybeans and maize, which can be used as livestock feed or for bioethanol, is of special concern to Hokkaido.
The Japanese government sees potential for expanding imports of these agricultural products as part of the ongoing tariff negotiations between Japan and the United States.
The two sides continue to talk with no agreement in sight as of late June. But the potential expansion of U.S. rice and soybean imports could have a particularly profound impact on Hokkaido, where the crops are vital to the regional economy.
Hokkaido rice, rated as some of the best in Japan, has been relatively cheaper here than in other parts of the country. But further efforts to reduce the costs in order to compete with U.S. imports will not be easy due to some basic challenges that the prefecture's agriculture sector faces.
In 2024, Hokkaido utilized 27% of Japan's total arable land area to develop agriculture centered on rice cultivation, field crops, and dairy farming which play a large role in Japan's food security policies and serve as an important source of export revenue.
Nationally, the food self-sufficiency rate in fiscal 2022 was 38% on a calorie basis. But Hokkaido's rate for 2022 was 218%.
In 2023, Hokkaido's agricultural output value was just under ¥1.35 trillion — 14.1% of national production in a prefecture with 5.22 million people, or 4.1% of the country's population.
Rice, in particular, is a major crop for Hokkaido, with 562,400 tons produced last year. That's about 7.7% of the nation's total and is second only to the output of Niigata Prefecture.
But aside than rice, Japan heavily relies on Hokkaido for two other crops that could face competition from U.S. imports. The prefecture produced 44.3% of Japan's soybeans and two-thirds of its green corn (maize) in 2023.
Despite Hokkaido's strength as an agricultural hub, there are deep demographic and logistical problems that make it difficult to simply lower prices. The importance of rice, soybeans and maize to the local economy and the challenges Hokkaido faces in getting all three to market is stirring concern among local officials about competition from more U.S. imports and its potential impact on farming.
Hokkaido, like the rest of Japan, is facing a shortage of young agricultural workers, although the situation may not look as bad as other prefectures on paper.
As of 2024, the proportion of agricultural workers age 49 or younger in Hokkaido was 24.7% (compared to the national average, excluding Hokkaido, of 10.4%). The proportion of those between the ages of 50 and 64 was 26.9% (national average excluding Hokkaido: 16.4%), and the proportion of those age 65 or older was 48.4% (national average excluding Hokkaido: 73.2%).
But a declining number of able-bodied farm workers can lead to wage increases among those who remain, driving up costs for farm owners. As such, some agricultural industries are trying to fill their labor force with foreign workers.
For example, social media sites are now advertising jobs in the Hokkaido dairy industry with a monthly salary of between ¥220,000 and ¥230,000. Other places are looking for short-term volunteer foreign farmers, who pick crops and do other jobs in exchange for free room and board for a week, at least.
There are also logistical problems with fixed costs. Many Hokkaido farms rely on imported raw materials for fertilizer, and the weak yen means farmers have to pay more, which impacts their bottom line. The other issue is getting the crops to market once they've been harvested. The local trucking industry is facing a shortage of drivers and high gasoline prices, which drive up the final cost consumers pay at the supermarket for Hokkaido produce.
Hokkaido Gov. Naomichi Suzuki has made it clear that he expects the central government to take a firm stance in its negotiations with the U.S. on rice and other agricultural products, keeping in mind the importance of Hokkaido to Japan's food policies.
'Hokkaido is a major production area for staple grains and other agricultural products. It's essential to engage in thorough discussions (with the U.S.) and to steadily advance policies that contribute to Japan's food security,' Suzuki said at an April 24 news conference.
In late May, Yasutoshi Tsuchiya, a JA (Japan Agricultural Cooperatives) Hokkaido official, said his organization also called on the Japanese government to avoid any agreement with the U.S. that would create problems in the prefecture's agricultural industry, and to refrain from implementing market liberalization beyond that which the two countries agreed to in the September 2019 Japan-U.S. Trade Agreement, which does not include rice, soybeans or maize.
'It's difficult at the moment to anticipate the impact of the negotiations on Hokkaido agriculture, as we've not received any specific details about what they will entail,' he told The Japan Times.
So far, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government has not formally begun negotiations with the U.S. on more rice, soybeans or maize imports. However, the question is likely to be on the minds of Hokkaido voters, especially in farming districts, in the weeks leading up to the July Upper House election.