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China's $733 Billion Warning: Why Investors Can't Ignore This Red Flag
China just posted a record-breaking 5.25 trillion yuan ($733 billion) budget deficit for the first half of the yeara 45% jump from the same period in 2024. Behind that number? A government pulling every fiscal lever it can to keep growth on track as exports to the US take a hit. While American tariffs remain elevatedroughly 30 percentage points higher than a year agoBeijing has doubled down on infrastructure and domestic spending to compensate for weakening external demand and a bruised property sector. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 9 Warning Signs with MSTR. So far, that strategy has bought time. GDP grew 5.3% in the first six months, running ahead of the government's full-year target. But under the surface, cracks are showing. Fiscal revenue fell 0.6% year-on-year, tax collections dropped 1.2%, and land salesa key source of fundingslipped another 6.5%. Meanwhile, total government spending rose 9% to nearly 19 trillion yuan, driven by capital-heavy projects and social support. For investors, that paints a mixed picture: growth is holding up, but the cost is rising fast. All eyes now turn to two events on the horizon: a high-level economic policy meeting in Beijing and fresh trade negotiations between Chinese and US officials. What happens next could shape the outlook not just for China's fiscal stance, but for any company exposed to cross-border flowsparticularly those like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which depend on both Chinese consumers and manufacturing capacity. If tariffs rise or growth slows, earnings leverage across sectors could swing hard in either direction. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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Trump's trade remarks: 3 takeaways ahead of China negotiations
President Trump says a China trade deal is taking shape ahead of next week's talks in Sweden. Asia Society Policy Institute vice president Wendy Cutler and Yahoo Finance Washington Correspondent Ben Werschkul discuss what the US may be pushing for and how upcoming tariff deadlines could shift. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. President Trump gave more details Friday about the state of trade negotiations. He said the US is nearing a trade deal with China and offered a range of messages on other nations facing his August 1st deadline. Trump's comments coming as US and Chinese negotiators are set to meet in Sweden next week. Joining us now, Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and Yahoo Finance's Washington correspondent Ben Worshko. Um Ben, let's start with you. Give us the latest here on some of these comments that we heard from President Trump today. Yeah. So, this morning as President Trump headed for Scotland, he did about a 30-minute gaggle with reporters talking about a wide array of topics. On the financial side of this, which was one piece of this, there was kind of a mixed bag here for in terms of, in terms of of trade updates. The first one was kind of some tough words about the current talks. Um, he talked about these are the countries facing an August 1st deadline. He described the chances of making an EU a deal with the EU is not certain. At one point he described it as 50/50, at another point he described it a little better than that, but it's clear that there's a ways to go on that front, which is, which is of course, as a block, is America's largest trading partner. He talked, he had some negative words about Canada saying that the outcome with Canada on August 1st could be a tariff and not any more negotiations there. What he previously promised was a 35% tariff on Canada, our northern neighbor. And he also talked about more tariffs, uh, tariff letters coming next week. This is where he basically just dictates rates. I might take that with a grain of salt considering these are the final stages of negotiations and we're seeing a lot of negotiations from both sides including from the EU side about what happens if no deal is there, but some negative words there. Where it was a little more mixed was on China. This is, this is another big focus of trade this week, or next week with Trump's teams set headed to Sweden to meet with Chinese officials. Trump describes that having the confines of a deal, but he didn't have any more details on what that meant. He's previously described a 90-day pause as a deal, quote deal. So it could just be a reference to that, but we'll see if that emerges to anything more there. One area with the China talks that jumped out of me this morning was Trump was asked about currency and had a lot of words there. I wrote about this this week about how the weakening dollar is a real sort of challenge and it is sort of dividing the Trump administration in terms of there's benefits of a weaker dollar for trade, and there's also disadvantages. Trump said that China, all they do is fight for a weaker currency, so that's clearly an issue for him in these China talks. We'll see if that comes up um, more. And then one final positive note from the president this morning was a lot of positive words for Jerome Powell. This came after his his high profile visit to the Fed last uh yesterday. He talked about how Powell's a very good man and even hinted that he thinks, we'll see if this happens, that Powell is going to look towards lowering rates as soon as next week, at least advocating for that if not actually lowering them. Yeah. We'll we'll see about that part. But let's talk more about the potential China deal. Wendy, I want to bring you in on this. What should we be watching for on this China deal? What developments do you think could come next week? So, again, next week is really, in my view, more of the launch of the China negotiations, right? It's taken us two or so months to make sure the deal that was reached in Geneva held up, particularly with respect to critical minerals. So I think when Beths and takes his team over and meets with China, it will all be all about trying to come up with a deal that could be announced during a potential Trump-Xi meeting um, around um, the APEC meeting, come late October. Interesting. What what would you want to see out of that deal, or what would you expect to see out of that deal when it comes that would be sort of most favorable to the US? Well, look, I think the president is going to be pushing for big purchases. We've seen that in other deals that have been announced so far. We've seen that during his first term and so I think that would be a feature that will be worked on. The Secretary of Treasury has also mentioned his concerns about Chinese exports of excess capacity goods. So I think that's another critical area that needs to be addressed. And look, there are a whole host of non-tariff measures, um and tariff measures that also could be on the table as well. Related Videos Trump Is on the Mind of the FOMC, Goldman's Kaplan Says Trump Says Powell May Be Ready to Recommend Lower Rates Trump Puts Odds of EU Trade Deal at 50-50 S&P 500 fresh record high, Trump & Powell, Intel: 3 Things Sign in to access your portfolio
