Ishiba government's survival may be at stake in July Upper House election

Japan Times

a day ago

The survival of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government may be at stake in the pivotal July 20 Upper House election.
Election campaigning for the vote officially kicked off Thursday, with all eyes on how the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition will perform.
A poor outcome is expected to have severe repercussions for the Ishiba administration, already in a minority position in the Lower House after its debacle in last October's general election.
Out of the 248 seats in the Upper House, 125 will be up for grabs, with 75 in single- or multi-seat constituencies and 50 under the proportional representation block.
With a total of 75 of its coalition's seats not up for reelection, the ruling coalition will need to win at least 50 seats to retain its majority in the Upper House. Ishiba has set a low bar, stressing that the coalition should aim to keep a simple majority.
'In every age, it is not prominent people in the capital who change the country and the course of history,' Ishiba said as he launched the party's campaign in Kobe, focusing on disaster-prevention measures and the economy. 'It's rural areas and ordinary citizens, one by one.'
Failure to retain a majority in the Upper House would put Ishiba's leadership in jeopardy and further fuel speculation of a potential change in government or an enlargement of the ruling coalition , even if party leaders have cast doubts over such a move.
The last two sessions of parliament have shown the struggles of a minority government forced to make significant concessions to the opposition in order to pass bills in the legislative arena. Another defeat will likely call for bolder political maneuvering.
So far, Ishiba has largely evaded questions over what steps he would take should the coalition fall short of its target.
Supporters of candidates put up election campaign posters on a bulletin board on the official campaign kick-off day for the July 20 Upper House election, on a street in Tokyo on Thursday. |
REUTERS
The races in 32 single-seat constituencies in mostly rural voting blocs are expected to sway the outcome of the poll, which has so far largely been dominated by economic policy and the impact of rising prices on households .
While the ruling coalition has promised cash handouts to everyone and additional support for child-rearing and low-income households, all opposition parties are calling for tax cuts to sustain consumer spending.
'We don't support handing out subsidies before an election,' said Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the Democratic Party for the People, as he opened the party's campaign in Tokyo's Shinjuku district.
'We want to play a leading role in building a society where working people can feel they can be rewarded if they work hard.'
The DPP's electoral showing will be closely watched, as the upbeat mood after the October general election took a turn for the worse in the last few months. At the time, the party quadrupled its seats in the Lower House.
Other topics likely to be on voters' minds include the Ishiba administration's handling of U.S. tariff negotiations, policies related to rice and the swelling costs of social security.
Despite seven rounds of talks between chief tariff negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and his U.S. counterpart, Tokyo and Washington remain at odds. The last few days have seen U.S. President Donald Trump using harsher rhetoric against Japan.
If no deal is struck by July 9, the current 10% 'reciprocal' tariff could rise to 24%.
Last month's Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election — in which the LDP suffered a crushing defeat and Komeito underperformed — pointed to the languishing popularity of the ruling coalition and uncertainty ahead of the Upper House poll.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (right) and Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan head Yoshihiko Noda discuss election pledges with other party leaders in Tokyo on Wednesday. |
JIJI
Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — the largest opposition force in parliament — has not set a clear seat target, saying only that it aims to ensure the ruling coalition is short of a majority in the Upper House.
'Let's change this country from Kyushu,' leader Yoshihiko Noda told an audience Thursday in rural Miyazaki Prefecture, criticizing the government for failing to fundamentally tackle the challenges faced by the agriculture sector.
Miyazaki is the home constituency of former farm minister Taku Eto, who resigned in May after saying he had never bought rice — at a time when the price of the staple had reached record highs.
Noda has framed this election as the second of three stages on the path to a change in government, following last year's general election. It remains to be seen whether the CDP can convince voters in the 32 single-seat constituencies that it is a viable alternative to the LDP.
The opposition camp remains fragmented in a large number of single-seat constituencies.
Both Nippon Ishin no Kai and the Japanese Communist Party are facing a downward trajectory, as shown in last month's Tokyo election.
Despite a small bump in government approval ratings in June, recent polls have shown mixed results, with support for the LDP reaching 23% in a Nippon News Network survey — the lowest level in 13 years.