Vote Farage, get Swinney...rise of Reform set to split pro-Union vote, new poll reveals

Daily Mail​

07-05-2025

Nigel Farage is on course to help hand John Swinney another five years in government - with Reform UK as the biggest opposition party.
A bombshell new poll yesterday revealed Reform has surged into second place with one year to go until the Holyrood elections and is now projected to secure 21 seats.
The rise in support for Reform largely comes at the expense of other pro-Union parties - and could lead to the SNP and Greens securing a pro-independence majority.
The new poll was published as party leaders marked one year to go until the Holyrood elections.
Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay yesterday claimed John Swinney is 'thrilled' by the rise of Mr Farage's party - and that the Reform UK leader would 'gladly gift the SNP another five years'.
He also said that the result would be 'catastrophic' for Scotland and put independence 'back on the table' - as Mr Swinney claimed a majority of MSPs supporting separation would be a mandate for another referendum.
Speaking at a Scottish Tory event in Edinburgh, Mr Findlay said: 'If the SNP win next year, I worry for Scotland. Our country will again be divided by nationalism, the base politics of populism.
'That is why every single day, my party stands up to them as we've done for 18 years. But not everybody understands this, not everyone is worried as I am about an SNP win.
'Nigel Farage isn't worried. He's said so himself, he said, and this is a direct quote, he's 'not that worried about the SNP'. Nigel Farage also says he would rather put the SNP into power at Holyrood than a pro-UK party.
'He would gladly gift the SNP another five years in power.'
He said Mr Swinney is 'thrilled' by Reform and wants to help them, and claimed he publicly pretends to despise the party when he actually 'adores them' because the SNP 'always promote a political bogeyman instead of doing the hard work of good governance'.
Mr Findlay said: 'When I think about next year, my first thought is not what will happen to my party, it's what will happen to my country if Nigel Farage hands John Swinney another five years in power.'
He pledged to never back Mr Swinney or an SNP government, and added: 'I'm here to get rid of the SNP for the good of my country, Nigel Farage is happy to let them win for the good of his party.'
The Survation poll of 1,020 Scots for True North, carried out over May 2-5, puts the SNP ahead on the constituency vote with 33 per cent, followed by Reform and Labour in second place on 19 per cent, then the Conservatives and Lib Dems on 11 per cent.
On the regional list, the SNP is on 29 per cent, Reform on 20 per cent, Labour 18 per cent, the Conservatives on 12 per cent, Lib Dems 10 per cent, Greens 9 per cent and Alba 3 per cent.
According to a projection by pollster Sir John Curtice, the result would mean the SNP would secure 58 seats, with Reform on 21, Labour 18, Conservatives 13, Lib Dems 10, and Greens eight.
Asked what the impact would be of Mr Swinney securing another five years with a pro-independence majority and Reform as the biggest opposition party, Mr Findlay said: 'Inevitably, independence would be back on the table - not that it was ever really off the table. That would continue to dominate.'
He said the prospect 'fills me with dread' and would be 'catastrophic for Scotland'.
He refused to say whether he would stand down if his party finishes below Reform. When asked if he would debate Mr Farage, Mr Findlay said: 'If Nigel Farage knows where Scotland is he knows where to find me.'
At another event yesterday to mark 12 months to the election, Mr Swinney claimed the Labour government is 'dancing to Farage's tune on immigration', and said: 'At Westminster, Nigel Farage may not be in office - but he is very much in power.'
He said the SNP 'will never do any deals with Farage' and that 'only the SNP will confront Farage and defeat Farage'.
He later claimed Mr Farage's politics would push more Scots towards independence, saying he is a 'different kettle of fish' to Tory leaders like Boris Johnson and the 'antithesis of kindness'.
The SNP leader also claimed that a 'democratic majority' of pro-independence MSPs at Holyrood following the next election should result in another referendum.
Thomas Kerr, Reform councillor for Shettleston, said: 'As all political parties gear up towards Holyrood 2026, Reform UK does so with a spring in our step and passion in our hearts.
'We know Scotland is broken and those SNP and Labour politicians who broke it will be held accountable next year. There's a lot of ground to cover, a lot of scrutiny to come but Reform UK is ready for the challenge ahead.
'To our opponents, we say, bring it. Scotland badly needs real fundamental change and only Reform UK will fix the mess the mainstream establishment parties have created.
'As today's Survation poll shows, Reform UK is the only political party in Scotland with momentum and now the clear opposition to this rotten SNP Government.'