The Great Dam Game: As China pushes ahead with a mega dam, India's counterplan sinks in local resistance

Time of India

6 days ago

On May 21, tractors crawled up a muddy hillside road in Begging, a remote village tucked in
Arunachal Pradesh
's Siang district, hauling two drilling rigs and their heavy gear. This was the quiet beginning of a high-stakes plan—to initiate pre-feasibility studies for a massive dam across the Siang river, known downstream, in Assam, as the
Brahmaputra
and upstream, in
China
, as the
Yarlung Zangbo
.
In Parong, on the other side of the river, tensions were running high. Anti-dam protests, led by the local Adi community, were escalating. Authorities were hoping to begin work discreetly on the Begging side and to ferry one of the machines across by boat later.
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But the resistance was swift and fierce. A week later, protesters descended on Begging in large numbers, severing the village's lone connection to the outside world—a fragile hanging bridge—before turning their fury on the equipment. The drilling machines were damaged beyond immediate repair.
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Undo
Though faced with mounting unrest, the police held back, avoiding a crackdown that could inflame conflict in the frontier region. The government, wary of a confrontation, pulled the plug on the operation, albeit temporarily. Engineers of the hydropower company NHPC, who had been stationed on the proposed drilling site, quietly packed up and retreated to Pasighat, the largest town along the Siang, leaving the embattled riverbank eerily silent once more.
But the lull won't last long. The government is resolute in its push to build what it calls the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (SUMP) — a massive, Rs 1,50,000 crore venture. At its heart lies a towering, 267-m-tall dam with a storage capacity of 9.2 billion cubic metres (bcm), envisioned as a strategic buffer in case China abruptly releases water upstream. The project is expected to have an installed capacity of 11,000 MW, with Arunachal Pradesh entitled to 12% of the power free of cost, along with a share in the revenue.
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The timing is no coincidence. Just last week, Beijing broke ground on what's set to be the world's largest dam on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra. With that, the water chessboard of the Eastern Himalayas has officially been set in motion.
Now, a pressing question looms: will India's counter-dam gambit act as a credible deterrent or tip the balance, deepening the ecological fault lines in an already fragile landscape?
'It (the Chinese dam) is going to cause an existential threat to our tribes and our livelihoods. It is quite serious because China could even use this as a sort of 'water bomb',' Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu told PTI on July 9, just days before Beijing formally announced the commencement of construction. CM, however, did not respond to ET's queries on whether SUMP could serve as an effective countermeasure to China's mega dam — or on reports that the project's pre-feasibility study has stalled amid strong resistance from local communities.
FIRST MOVE BY CHINA
China was the first to disturb the stillness of the Eastern Himalayas along the
McMahon Line
. In 2020, Beijing announced the ambitious hydropower project over the Yarlung Zangbo in Tibet, incorporating it into the country's 14th Five-Year Plan. The timing was no coincidence—Indian and Chinese troops were engaged in fierce clashes in the Galwan Valley on the western front.
For New Delhi, the message was unmistakable. The spectre of a 'water bomb'—unleashed from a mega dam near the Brahmaputra's Great Bend, where the river plunges nearly 2 km— was no longer a distant possibility. It had become a pressing strategic concern. In response, India floated its own countermeasure: the SUMP, a dam on its side of the river. But while China has already broken ground— with Premier Li Qiang formally launching construction on July 19 in a high-profile ceremony in Nyingchi, also calling it the 'project of the century'—India remains stuck at the starting line. Pre-feasibility studies, bogged down by bureaucratic delays and growing grassroots resistance, have yet to take off.
Beijing has also announced the formation of a new state-owned enterprise— China Yajiang Group—to oversee the construction of what is set to become the largest hydropower dam, surpassing the iconic Three Gorges Dam. According to China's state-run news agency Xinhua, the project, estimated at around 1.2 trillion yuan (approximately $167.8 billion), will feature five cascade hydropower stations and generate 300 million megawatthours (MWh) of electricity annually. In comparison, the
Three Gorges Dam
on the Yangtze river—currently the world's largest power station by installed capacity—produces just 88 million MWh per year. The new dam is expected to become operational in the 2030s.
China's capital markets responded positively. As reported by Reuters on July 21, the CSI Construction & Engineering Index surged 4% to hit a seven-month high, with shares of
Power Construction Corporation of China
and
Arcplus Group PLC
both soaring to their 10% daily trading limits.
CASCADING CONCERNS
While capital markets may be celebrating—driven by the lure of massive profits—the deeper concerns surrounding the project remain largely unaddressed. Should there be a dam of such staggering scale in the seismically active and fragile Himalayan belt?
Equally troubling is the spectre of water diversion. If Beijing alters the flow of the Yarlung Zangbo, the ripple effects would cascade downstream, potentially disrupting livelihoods not only in Assam Valley, but all the way to Bangladesh, where the river is known as the Jamuna.
'Legendary singer Bhupen Hazarika described the Brahmaputra as Mahabahu, a symbol of strength and grandeur, a mighty force that binds together communities of different hues,' says Kuladhar Saikia, former Assam DGP and Sahitya Akademi Award-winning author. Expressing concern over the possibility of the river running dry during winter once the Chinese mega dam becomes operational, he adds, 'The Brahmaputra is not just an economic lifeline — it is the main artery of our culture, tradition, language, literature and creativity.'
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has sought to downplay concerns over China's dam project. He argues that nearly 70% of the Brahmaputra's flow comes from rainfall within Indian territory — specifically Arunachal Pradesh and Assam—and Bhutan, suggesting that the river is not heavily reliant on glacial sources from across the border. In multiple interactions with the press, he has maintained that the final assessment will rest with the Centre.
WILL BRAHMAPUTRA SHRINK?
While it is true that the Brahmaputra is a vast and resilient river system and not dependent on a single source, the data tells a more nuanced story. According to concept papers for the SUMP, which ET has seen, 84% of the river's volume in Arunachal Pradesh during the winter months—from November to April—is fed by water originating in China.
That means, if China were to divert the upstream flow, the Brahmaputra — particularly in Upper Assam, where most major tributaries are yet to merge — could shrink to a mere stream during the winter months, jeopardising the region's ecological balance and rich biodiversity.
Against this backdrop, the question becomes even more urgent: what happens when there are two dams, one each on either side of the McMahon Line?
During a visit to the two villages that are the proposed SUMP sites—Parong and Dite Dime (Ugeng being the third site)—in January, this writer encountered a palpable sense of fear and resistance among the local people. 'We are not just opposing the dam, we are against any feasibility studies being conducted here,' said Tato Pabin, a resident of Parong, a village of 125 families. 'Our orange farms, which thrive in the low-lying areas along the river, will be completely wiped out.'
According to an official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, Parong has emerged as the most likely location for the dam. The other two sites, Dite Dime and Ugeng—both situated further upstream—are reportedly no longer under active consideration.
VILLAGES TO BE AFFECTED
While the full extent of the impact will only be known after pre-feasibility studies are conducted, preliminary estimates suggest that around 59 villages could be affected. Of these, at least 15 villages may need to be relocated entirely. So far, only three villages—Pangkang, Riga and Riew—have given their consent to the project.
There is yet another potential fallout. A section of the existing road that winds its way to the strategically vital Tuting Advanced Landing Ground is likely to be submerged. If the government decides to move forward with the project, one of its first tasks will be to build a brand-new road, at a significantly higher elevation, to maintain critical military and civilian connectivity in this sensitive frontier region.