Trump intervenes on the GERD - Egypt - Al-Ahram Weekly
The possibility of the US intervening to resolve the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was brought up by US President Donald Trump, who told reporters earlier this week that his administration is 'going to have that [issue] solved very quickly'.
'If I am Egypt, I want to have water in the Nile, and we are working on that,' Trump stated during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte last week in Washington.
While Trump's proposal to intervene in the dispute over the GERD may appear as a positive step to resolve the controversial issue, it has raised questions over what the US wants in return.
Ahmed Youssef, a professor of political science at Cairo University, noted that it is not the first time that Trump has proposed to intervene, even as his statements raise questions as to his motivation.
Egypt had not asked Trump to mediate in the dispute, and Trump's offer had come at a time when Egypt is taking part with the US and Qatar in negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire plan, Youssef said, pointing to the many differences between Cairo and Washington on that matter.
Trump's statement raises questions as to whether his proposal comes because he is fond of making deals and wants to strike another one or because he wants Egypt to make concessions on the Gaza issue, such as accepting the displacement of the Palestinians to Rafah, in return, he added.
'Time will tell whether Trump genuinely aims to resolve the issue or whether he is after another deal or more concessions on Gaza.'
Cairo cannot accept the Gaza displacement plan, various political commentators stated this week, because displacing Gaza's people towards Rafah would inevitably lead to direct confrontation between Egypt and Israel.
Tarek Fahmi, a political science professor at Cairo University, noted that the US administration is pragmatic and will want something in return for its mediation. 'Does it want privileges in return, such as on the Suez Canal, for instance? Or will it press Egypt to change its stand with regards to Gaza,' he asked.
Egypt's stand regarding any attempt to displace the Palestinians is firm and will not change, as it is an issue of national security and a pillar of Egyptian foreign policy, he added.
In his statement, Trump not only called the Nile 'a very important source of income and life' for Egypt but also emphasised Egypt's heavy dependence on the Nile, which provides about 97 per cent of the country's water.
In response to Trump's statement, President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi said on social media this week that he 'appreciates President Trump's keenness on reaching a just agreement that safeguards the interests of all parties involved in the dispute over the Ethiopian Dam, as well as his recognition of the Nile as a source of life for Egypt.'
President Al-Sisi also highlighted the importance of the Nile River to Egypt's national security during this week's meeting with Commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) General Michael Kurilla in Cairo.
This week's statement was not the first time that Trump has criticised the building of the GERD without an agreement. During his first term in office, Trump said the GERD could be 'blown up'.
'They [Egypt] will end up blowing up the Dam,' Trump said. 'And I said it, and I say it loud and clear… they'll blow up that dam. They have to do something.'
Commenting on Trump's motives, Abbas Sharaki, professor of geology and water resources at Cairo University, said that he could see the GERD as a way towards a Nobel Prize.
Trump has brought up the GERD twice in three weeks, Sharaki pointed out, explaining that he has said that the GERD crisis is reaching its peak and that he will seek to resolve it quickly.
'Trump frequently mentions that he ended the wars between India and Pakistan, Serbia and Kosovo, Congo and Rwanda, and Iran and Israel, and that he may even halt Israel's war on Gaza,' Sharaki said.
He pointed to Trump's claim that the US 'foolishly financed the dam' as primarily intended to blame the previous administration.
Fahmi disagreed with the statement that the US was the most influential party in financing the dam. 'There are other international and Arab parties that took part in the building and financing of the dam until it reached its final stages, namely China, European states like Italy, France, and the UK, and some Arab states,' he said.
Egypt and Sudan, as downstream countries on the Nile, have long pushed for a legally binding agreement with Ethiopia on the filling and operation of the GERD, especially during periods of drought and severe drought, to secure their share of Nile water.
Ethiopia says the dam is essential for the country's development and has repeatedly vowed not to harm downstream nations, even as it has declined to commit itself to an agreement.
Between 2020 and 2024, Ethiopia unilaterally completed the dam's five-stage filling and began operating its turbines without an agreement on the filling or operations with Egypt and Sudan.
Earlier this month, Ethiopia announced the completion of the GERD, saying that the official inauguration will be in September.
Returning to the negotiating table as soon as possible remains Egypt's pragmatic option, according to Sharaki.
Trump could invite all three parties to reach an agreement in less than a week, he explained. Conditions are better than they were before, thanks to the completion of the filling of the dam's reservoir, which was a major point of contention in previous negotiations over the number of years that this would take.
'This option could encourage reaching an agreement that would regulate the repeated filling and subsequent operation, and, if possible, reduce the storage capacity of the reservoir, which poses a significant threat to the water security of Sudan and Egypt,' he said.
To test Trump's seriousness, Fahmi added, his words must be translated on the ground by direct mediation. 'There is an old agreement [reached in 2020] that we can build on, and there also must be a clear path that all parties can follow,' he said.
In 2020, Washington sponsored talks on GERD between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. In the final session of the talks, however, Ethiopia failed to show up to sign an agreement on the dam.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 24 July, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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