Navigating a possible Prop 187 moment

Politico

3 days ago

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IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID — For years, Mike Madrid has been moonlighting as the Cassandra of Latino voters, warning Democrats that the once-reliable voting bloc was slipping out of their grasp.
Now, after the 2024 election largely confirmed his thesis, Madrid, a Republican strategist who was a co-founder of the anti-Donald Trump Lincoln Project, says he wants to help politicians from both parties deliver what Latinos actually want. His newly launched initiative, 'Working Class Latino Project,' promotes focusing on economics — and veering away from the immigration-centric focus of many Latino politicians in the last few decades.
There's some irony in the timing of this debut, just as immigration has surged back into the spotlight. Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids are now daily occurrences in Los Angeles, potentially galvanizing a whole new generation of Latinos a la those who were politically mobilized after the anti-immigrant Proposition 187 in 1994.
Madrid acknowledged that backlash to Trump's immigration enforcement could cause some Latinos to return to the Democratic Party. But, he insists, the cost of living concerns that drove Latinos' rightward shift aren't going away.
'Even if this is a possible Prop 187 moment, shame on us if we are not simultaneously creating an economic agenda,' Madrid said. 'Because one of the lessons that needs to be learned by my generation is if you don't have an economic agenda, it can all go away with one election.'
Madrid commissioned a poll after the November election that found blaring warning signs for Democrats. More than three-quarters of respondents said that California state government policies made prices much higher or somewhat higher. Well over half of respondents disapproved of how the government was addressing the economy. But that doesn't automatically mean an upside for Republicans; respondents weren't convinced the GOP understood their needs.
To Madrid, the findings signaled a jump ball for both parties to make a better dollars-and-cents appeal to Latinos.
Plans for the initiative include polling, crafting policy development and hosting a series of economic summits across the state to identify key economic issues that Latinos want to see addressed. He plans to work with a bipartisan group of Latino legislators, as well as pollster Mindy Romero of USC.
The venture is backed by Business Roundtable, with funding from corporate interests such as energy companies and developers. The money source will almost certainly raise eyebrows from Democrats, especially progressives and allies of organized labor, who may see the project as a stalking horse for conservative policies.
Madrid says the project 'isn't going to be anti-labor at all,' and notes that he's willing to buck either party's orthodoxy. 'If tariffs harm the Latino middle class, which they do, I will be very vocal about that, along with other restrictive regulatory measures like CEQA [on] the left,' he said.
Assemblymember Juan Carrillo, a moderate Democrat from the Antelope Valley who is involved in the initiative, said some progressives may be skeptical of Madrid's message. But he said his party needs to be 'realistic' about the economic dissatisfaction of the state's largest plurality ethnic group.
'The worry that older Latinos will continue to go to the right, I think that we need to pay attention to what they're telling us,' said Carrillo. 'Those hardworking older Latinos like myself — I came here when I was 15 years old from Guadalajara. I came here and I worked hard, and that's all the Latinos are telling me that in my district, that we are not paying attention' to issues like economic opportunity and upward mobility.
Madrid has been working with Latino lawmakers from both parties to get the initiative off the ground — a touchy prospect given the partisan self-segregation in the Capitol between the longstanding Latino Legislative Caucus (composed only of Democrats) and the new Hispanic Legislative Caucus (for Republicans).
He had advised against forming an official bipartisan caucus, precisely because hot-button issues like immigration could be too toxic for such a group. And other issues — economic ones — aren't going anywhere.
'Regardless of what's happening in LA, with the ICE raids and with the real need for immigration reform, people are still struggling to put gas in their cars,' said state Sen. Suzette Valladares, an Antelope Valley Republican also involved in the project. 'These economic issues are not going to go away, but are going to compound for working-class Latinos.'
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WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
STATE CAPITOL
BUDGET BRUISER — Gov. Gavin Newsom's budget negotiations with the Legislature are going down to the wire due to a clash over housing policy and labor protections. Newsom has made approval of the entire budget contingent on whether lawmakers approve a proposal to slash environmental reviews for many housing projects in urban areas.
As Lindsey Holden wrote for California Playbook PM, many rank-and-file Democrats and their powerful union allies are fuming over a new minimum wage requirement for residential construction workers. Debate at the Capitol on Wednesday devolved into should-be allies angrily comparing Newsom's plans to Jim Crow, slavery and immigration raids, our Eric He, Jeremy B. White and Rachel Bluth write.
Meanwhile, district attorneys and law enforcement groups say the budget deal between Newsom and legislative leaders is a 'slap in the face' because it doesn't set aside more funding to help counties fully implement tough-on-crime ballot measure Proposition 36, which Newsom opposed. Read more, also from Lindsey.
FANTASY FEUD — Major operators in the online fantasy sports-wagering arena are upping their Sacramento messaging blitz ahead of a highly anticipated opinion from state Attorney General Rob Bonta on whether the sites are legally operating in California.
Chatter about Bonta's forthcoming opinion has ramped up as industry insiders speculate where he will land on the legality of placing wagers on fantasy team lineups, an increasingly lucrative online industry. The decision could have national implications for fantasy sports, given the size of California's market and the legal gray area in which the sites often operate.
The speculation escalated Wednesday night, when KCRA reported that Bonta was 'expected to deem all online fantasy sports platforms illegal in the state,' citing multiple unnamed sources.
Fantasy sports platform operators argue that their sites shouldn't be considered traditional sports wagering because selecting players to create a fictional roster of athletes is a game of skill, not chance. But tribal communities — which spent tens of millions of dollars to defeat a 2022 measure to legalize sports gambling — are fighting the fantasy industry's growth. They want Bonta to declare it illegal in all forms.
Bonta began reviewing the legality of fantasy leagues in 2023, after receiving a request from a lawmaker, former state Sen. Scott Wilk, who warned fantasy betting was proliferating and is more akin to a game of chance.
SILICON VALLEY
MAHAN REBOUNDS — Progressive Democrats are having a very good week after Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, won the Democratic Party's primary for New York City mayor.
But in the Bay Area, a different election Tuesday gave moderates cause to celebrate.
In San Jose's special election for a City Council seat, moderate Anthony Tordillos trounced his labor-backed opponent by double digits. The outcome was a major coup for Mayor Matt Mahan, who has long battled with labor unions that loathe his brand of anti-establishment, centrist Democratic politics.
Mahan endorsed Tordillos, chair of the Planning Commission, in the runoff against Gabby Chavez-Lopez, a progressive more closely aligned with unions.
The outcome ensures that Mahan's moderate-aligned bloc will hold the majority on the City Council. Mahan, in an interview with Playbook, said he and Tordillos both represent a current of Silicon Valley leaders willing to challenge the status quo within liberal circles.
'People want elected leaders who are focused on results, not partisan or ideological battles,' Mahan said.
Tordillos has backed some of Mahan's headline-grabbing policies, including his plan to tie city employees' pay raises to performance metrics. That said, he didn't support Mahan's much-debated plan to arrest homeless people who repeatedly refuse shelter.
Nevertheless, Tuesday's outcome is a comeback of sorts for Mahan. In the first round of the council contest, Mahan's preferred candidate, Matthew Quevedo (his deputy chief of staff), narrowly finished in third place. Union leaders were quick to frame the outcome as a referendum on the mayor.
But Mahan quickly moved to align himself with Tordillos in the runoff. Tordillos said the two, who share a background in tech, hit it off over their interest in using data to shape policy — as well as a sentiment that city government has been too dominated by ideology.
'Residents don't feel like the status quo is doing enough,' Tordillos said, citing the city's response to housing, homelessness and affordability problems.
INFLUENCE WATCH
OIL MONEY — Former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra received a $39,200 contribution from Chevron for his 2026 campaign for governor. It appears to be the oil company's first contribution to a candidate for governor since Jerry Brown in 2014, as Rob Pyers of Target Book observed.
Becerra's contribution is likely to raise eyebrows among climate hawks in the Democratic Party. But his Chevron money pales in comparison with fellow gubernatorial hopeful Antonio Villaraigosa's pivot toward the oil industry. As the Los Angeles Times reported, the former LA mayor has accepted at least $176,000 in contributions from people with ties to the industry.
CLIMATE AND ENERGY
THIS WAY OR THE HIGHWAY — The ongoing brawl between labor and environmental groups over highway expansion is back on with a new wrinkle. Read last night's California Climate on why affordability — and not pollution — will be front and center when the two sides face off Thursday over $600 million in funding for six projects.
TOP TALKERS
STAYING PUT — Los Angeles Area Chamber of Commerce President and Chief Executive Maria S. Salinas expressed concern in a Q&A with the LA Times for the city's small businesses amid the upheaval and ICE raids. Salinas said fears around recent enforcement actions in Los Angeles County — where immigrants account for 35 percent of the county's more than 10 million people — have caused both workers and consumers to stay home.
'When people are afraid to go out, they stay away from local stores and aren't going out to eat at their local restaurants. You see the emptiness in the local neighborhoods,' Salinas said.
IN A CORNER — Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, in a post on X, encouraged the state to cooperate with the U.S. Department of Education after the agency concluded that California violated Title IX by allowing transgender athletes to compete in school sports according to their gender identity. In the post, Kiley called on the state to reverse the policy, restore medals and apologize to female athletes before it loses funding.
Now, the state Department of Education and the California Interscholastic Federation have 10 days to change the policies or 'risk imminent enforcement action.' California officials said the state 'believes all students should have the opportunity to learn and play at school, and we have consistently applied existing law in support of students' rights to do so,' as NBC News reported.
AROUND THE STATE
— A new bill calls for creating a new regional agency for homelessness programming in Sacramento County and would effectively replace the Sacramento Housing and Redevelopment Agency. (The Sacramento Bee)
— A federal judge ruled that Los Angeles officials failed to follow a settlement agreement that would create more shelter for homeless people. (LAist)
— Five former baseball players at the University of San Francisco filed a lawsuit claiming that the school failed to 'to adopt and enforce policies' prohibiting abuse allegedly by two ex-coaches. (San Francisco Chronicle)
PLAYBOOKERS
PEOPLE MOVES — Emily Cohen has been named CEO at United Contractors (UCON). She currently serves as UCON's executive VP and has been with the organization for over 15 years.
— Jason Rzepka is joining the firm RALLY as senior director, effective mid-July. Rzepka, a veteran strategic comms pro, was most recently president and founder of WRIT LARGE.
— Lisa M. Magorien has joined the law firm Seyfarth Shaw in Los Angeles (Century City), as a partner in its labor and employment practice. She was previously a partner at Lagasse Branch Bell & Kinkead, LLP.
BIRTHDAYS — David Bocarsly at the Jewish Public Affairs Committee of California … Robert Gonzalez at Teamsters Local 1932 … Jesse Lehrich, co-founder of Accountable Tech … Mark McGrath at Creative Artists Agency … Lynwood City Councilmember Juan Muñoz-Guevara (favorite treat: tres leches cake or a Paloma cocktail) … OpenAI's Elizabeth Wilner … Merit's Trevor Cornwell …
BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Wednesday): Dennis Cuevas-Romero at the California Primary Care Association … Hunter Bishop
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