Global markets' 90-day tariff pause rollercoaster nears an uncertain end

Globe and Mail

9 hours ago

The deadline U.S. President Donald Trump set for major trading partners to strike deals with Washington or face hefty tariffs expires next week, bringing to a close 90 days of volatility but leaving global investors in the dark over what will happen next.
Mr. Trump's propensity to issue a threat, or impose a new tariff, only to reverse course shortly afterwards has led to turmoil over the past three months.
Investors, however, have now become somewhat inured to this sort of policymaking on the fly. And, as a result, there is little evidence at this point that many are preparing for fireworks on July 9. Instead, most expect some kind of delay, pause or compromise.
What that will look like, however, is anyone's guess.
Here is a snapshot of where major markets are now, relative to where they were when Mr. Trump dropped his initial tariffs bombshell on April 2:
Global stock markets have staged a strong recovery following the intense volatility triggered by Mr. Trump's tariff announcement.
The MSCI World index, which fell 10 per cent between April 2 and April 9, the day Mr. Trump paused the tariffs, has hit successive record highs and gained over 11 per cent since the original 'Liberation Day' announcement.
Global equities got another boost in May, when the U.S. and China reached a temporary truce, pausing many tariffs for another 90 days. Geopolitical tensions, including Israel's recent strikes on Iran and Washington's subsequent bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, briefly reined in sentiment but have not derailed the broader rally.
The S&P 500, which had lagged other major equity markets earlier in the year, has closed those gaps, gaining over 10 per cent since April 2, and is neck and neck with the MSCI all-country index, which excludes the United States .
There's an important caveat, however. The S&P has only hit record highs in dollar terms. The weakness in the U.S. currency has eroded the returns for overseas investors. In euro or Swiss franc terms, for example, the index is still about 10 per cent below February's record high, while in pounds, it's 7 per cent below the sterling-denominated peak.
The U.S. dollar, widely regarded as the world's most powerful and stable currency, has suffered a knock to its reputation from Mr. Trump's tariffs and the subsequent 90-day pause.
The dollar index, which reflects the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six others including the euro and the Japanese yen, suffered its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining by approximately 11 per cent. It has fallen by 6.6 per cent since April 2 alone.
Against the currencies of some of the United States' biggest trading partners, the decline has been even more marked. It has lost some 8 per cent against the euro and the Mexican peso since then and 5 per cent against the Canadian dollar.
Vincent Mortier, the CIO of Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said the euro has plenty more room to run, especially as U.S. debt worries are also driving the dollar down.
'I won't be surprised if by the end of next year we start to revisit the $1.30 level,' he said, highlighting that at its 2008 peak, the euro got as high as $1.60.
European shares have more than recovered losses suffered since Trump's 'Liberation Day'. But strength in the euro and anxiety over tariffs have kept them below March's record highs.
Large exporting sectors such as pharma and autos, which make up around one-third of EU exports to the United States, have rebounded too, but have been more volatile.
Brussels is reportedly open to a U.S. deal that would apply a universal 10-per-cent tariff on many of its exports, something several investors would view favourably should it be confirmed. Citi said markets risk being caught offside if tariffs are reimposed at 20 per cent or reach 50 per cent.
'Trump is truly unpredictable, but if it's really around 10 per cent, I think the markets will react very well,' said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest.
The impact of the trade talks extends beyond Europe, however, with automakers in Japan also being watched. Citi's base case is for a sustained 25-per-cent tariff, while a surprise cut to 10 per cent could unlock a 50-per-cent upside for Japanese auto stocks.
Gold has featured as the hedge of choice against an array of risks, from tariff-induced inflation, to geopolitical risk and a shift away from the U.S. dollar.
The price has hit record after record, rising 26 per cent so far this year to around US$3,330 an ounce. Gold has eclipsed bitcoin , which has gained about 14 per cent year to date, and even Nvidia , the maker of chips that power AI capabilities, whose shares went parabolic last year and have risen about 18 per cent this year.
Since April 2, gold's ascent has gathered pace, fuelled by purchases from central banks, fund managers and even individuals.
A survey by UBS Asset Management this week showed 39 per cent of respondents said they planned to increase their gold holdings, compared with 15% last year. The independence of the Federal Reserve - whose chair, Jerome Powell, Mr. Trump has berated repeatedly for not cutting interest rates fast enough - is one of the key concerns cited in the survey.
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