Midterm review of the Pakatan government — Lee Hwa Beng

Malay Mail

2 days ago

AUGUST 1 — The last General Elections (GE) was held on November 19, 2022, with Pakatan Harapan (PH) together with Barisan Nasional (BN), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) from Sarawak, and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) forming the government, and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim becoming the prime minister.
The Unity Government now has 153 members of parliament (MP) as follows:
1. PH (81): DAP (40), PKR (31), Amanah (8), United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation - UPKO (2)
2. BN (30): Umno (26), MCA (2), MIC (1), Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah - PBRS (1)
3. GPS (23): Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu - PBB (14), Sarawak United Peoples' Party - SUPP (2), Parti Rakyat Sarawak - PRS (5), Progressive Democratic Party - PDP (2)
4. GRS (6)
5. Warisan and others: 6
6. Independents of formerly Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia — members (7)
The Opposition has 69 seats, led by Perikatan Nasional (PN), comprising PAS with 43 seats and Bersatu with 25 and Muda, one.
There have been four by-elections since the last elections at the federal level. Kemaman and Kuala Terengganu were retained by PAS, and Pulai by PKR. But in Padang Serai, PKR lost to Bersatu.
Party flags line the road ahead of the Sungai Bakap by-election June 26, 2024. ― Bernama pic
Two parties, DAP and PKR had their party elections. The Lim stronghold over DAP were finally over with Lim Guan Eng being only one left in the central committee and Anthony Loke firmly in charge.
In PKR, Anwar's daughter, Nurul Izzah took over as Deputy President of PKR, taking over from Rafizi Ramli after challenging the latter during the party elections in May 2025. Anwar's term as President is limited by the constitution to three terms, to end by 2026. Some people believe that Anwar is engineering for Nurul to take over as president in 2026 so that he can still be the PM after the next general elections due in 2028.
The federal government is held by a unity government consisting of PH and BN. Seven states are held by this Unity Government: Johor, Pahang, Negri Sembilan, Selangor, Perak and Penang. Sarawak is under GPS and Sabah under GRS, with both aligned with the federal government. Interestingly, Umno is the opposition in Sabah and DAP, in Sarawak.
The other four states Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis are held by PN.
As the last federal level elections were held on November 19, 2022, the next is due by February 17, 2028. Sabah had its state election on September 26, 2020, and must have its next election by December 8, 2025.
Sarawak had its state election on December 18, 2021 and must hold the next by April 10, 2027.
Melaka held its state elections on November 20, 2021 and must hold the next one by November 2026. Johor held its on March 12, 2022, with the next election due in April 2027.
For the other states, all their elections were held after the federal elections in 2022; as such, their terms can last past the due date of the elections of the federal government.
As the title of my article suggested, I will attempt to review the state of affairs of our political situation for the federal government and not the state governments.
Most independent political analysts agree that a slight majority of the Malays voted for PN and a high number of non-Malays voted for PH in the last general elections held in 2022. Hence the results reflected that high-majority Malay areas were won by PN, while mixed and non-Malay areas were won by PH. Umno was then contesting independently under BN and won in their traditionally strong Malay areas.
Undeniably, voting are still based on racial lines.
At this halfway point, has the support for the parties along racial lines changed?
A lot of people voted for PH due to Umno's financial scandals, especially the 1MDB. But the Umno they thought they kicked out is now in Anwar's government. Umno's Ismail Sabri, also former Prime Minister, allegedly caught with RM170 million, will reinforce their hatred for Umno. The discharge not amounting to acquittal (DNAA) given to pro-government leaders, including those in Umno and Najib's AmBank case, whose cases were dropped, would also erode PH's traditional support.
This factor will definitely push most of the Malays who voted for PH due to their dislike of Umno away from PH. Similarly, the non-Malays may not all move to PN but will likely stay at home.
DAP has an Indian national chairman in Gobind Singh Deo, with his brother Ramkarpal as deputy secretary general, both of which are key party roles. However, both are Punjabis and not seen as Indians. There are also no credible Indians in PKR and this may make PH lose a lot of Indian votes, if people continue to vote along racial lines.
The two years of PN government under Muhyiddin Yassin, and another two years of Muafakat under Ismail Sabri government, with PAS in both governments, might have pushed the non-Malays towards PH in the last elections.
Will Umno supporters stay with them to vote PH or remain with PN without Umno? I believe the traditional Umno supporters will vote where there are Umno candidates and unlikely to vote for the other PH candidates. Very likely, these Umno supporters will vote PN when there are no Umno candidates.
PH's support from the non-Malays depends a lot on DAP. Most Chinese depend on DAP to fight for their rights as they previously depended on MCA until MCA failed them. Anwar's pro-Islamic actions like the Mufti Bill, amendment to the law related to the jurisdiction of the shariah courts in RUU 355, the appointment of the new Chief Justice, DNAAs, etc, have scared quite a few Chinese. DAP's seemingly weak stand against PKR and especially Umno's Youth head's rhetoric has also weakened their traditional Chinese support.
The Penang government with DAP control and a CM's recent introduction (which was then rescinded) of 5 per cent discount for house purchases by Indian Muslims also raised alarm.
All these have weakened the green wave scare of Chinese against a PAS dominated government. In fact, the green wave scare was the main reason why most non-Malays, and especially the Chinese, won't be inclined to vote PN.
On the economic front, is our country in better shape? The weak economic climate of the world, and especially the tariff factor of Trump, have also affected Malaysia. But has our government done anything to mitigate this economic slowdown?
The recent economic stimulus and goodies announced by Anwar will not be enough to change their minds.
To summarise, PH cannot rely on their past solid non-Malay support and must entertain the possibility that more Malays will vote PN in next GE.
PH without BN's 30 MPs, GPS' 23 MPs and GRS's 6 MPs, and the 7 Independents would only have 81 MPs.
Umno's support for PH will depend on the distribution of seats between PH and BN. It is unlikely that they can agree as a number of Umno seats lost in the last elections were won by PKR and Amanah. Similarly, most of the MCA and MIC seats were lost to DAP. I cannot imagine that PH will give up enough seats to make Umno, MCA and MIC happy. I believe these three parties will compete separately and there will be a three-coalition fight, ie, PH, PN & BN, as happened in the last elections.
What can PH or Anwar do to ensure of victory?
A lot will depend on the outcome of the state elections of Sabah and Sarawak, which will definitely be held before the next national elections.
An increase in seats will require a 2/3 majority, but a redrawing of seat boundaries needs a simple majority. I believe Anwar will opt for the latter.
As PH's support from the non-Malays will still be more than 50 per cent despite an expected drop as compared to last elections and Malay support for PN will increase, Anwar will redraw boundaries to have more Chinese in the mixed seats. The Umno-led Muafakat government had created a lot of big Chinese seats like Petaling Jaya, Subang Jaya, Klang, Ipoh, etc, for the last elections. I am sure Anwar will redraw the boundaries to shift the Chinese from these big seats to neighbouring areas to create more mixed seats.
He will do this whole exercise just before the next elections to enjoy the advantage of surprise.
Another possibility is that PKR might dissolve and merge with Umno with Anwar as the President. This will create new dynamics into our political arena. If this happens, MCA and MIC will again be played out by Umno as the new Umno will likely work with DAP.
Anwar's age is also a factor. He is 77 now and will be 80 by 2028.
To conclude, I dare to say, bravely, if elections were held today, PH will lose more seats and be forced to form a unity government again, possibly with Umno once more. Also, expect GRS of Sabah to lose the state, and Warisan to be the winner. In Sarawak, GPS will still win handsomely. Warisan and GPS will then be the kingmakers for federal politics.
Datuk Lee Hwa Beng
Three-term State Assemblyman
Sacked by MCA in 2012 for the PKFZ Exposure
* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.