A failed Soviet-era spacecraft that aimed for Venus is expected to crash back to Earth tonight
A Soviet-era spacecraft that was designed to make a soft landing on Venus — but instead remained trapped in Earth orbit for decades — is slated to fall from the sky Friday night or early Saturday, according to the latest estimates from experts.
The object, referred to as Cosmos 482 or Kosmos 482, is believed to be a capsule launched by the Soviet Union in March 1972 that failed en route to a transfer orbit that would have taken it to Venus to study its environment.
In the decades since, the object has circled Earth aimlessly as it was slowly dragged back toward home.
Astronomers and space traffic experts have had their eyes on the object for years now as its orbital path has slowly reached lower and lower altitudes, a result of the subtle atmospheric drag that exists even hundreds of miles away from Earth.
The cylinder-shaped craft, which is about 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter, is now predicted to crash back to Earth overnight. Cosmos 482 is on track to hit the ground or ocean roughly between 10 p.m. and 6:30 a.m. ET, according to four analyses of the object from various institutions, including the European Space Agency and the federally funded US research group Aerospace Corporation.
That guidance is still in line with predictions issued by space traffic experts earlier this week. The estimated time frame of the vehicle's final descent will narrow as the event approaches.
Because of the sheer complexity of spaceflight and unpredictable factors, such as space weather, it can be extremely difficult to pinpoint exactly when or where an object will fall out of orbit.
This particular piece of space junk likely won't pose a risk to people on the ground.
'This object was designed to survive reentering Venus, so there's fair odds that it'll survive coming back (to Earth) in one piece,' said Marlon Sorge, a space debris expert with The Aerospace Corporation, on Monday. 'That actually makes the risk less … because it would stay intact.'
Often, when spaceborne garbage hurtles back toward Earth, objects such as defunct rocket parts are torn apart by the jarring physics as they can slam into Earth's thick inner atmosphere while still traveling at more than 17,000 miles per hour (27,000 kilometers per hour).
Each of the pieces from the rocket part can then pose a threat to the area where it lands.
But Cosmos 482 is uniquely suited to make the trip home in one piece. The spacecraft has a substantial heat shield that protects the vehicle from the intense temperatures and pressures that can build up during reentry.
And because Cosmos 482 was designed to reach the surface of Venus — where the atmosphere is 90 times denser than Earth's — the probe is likely to reach the ground intact.
The Soviet Union's Space Research Institute, or IKI, ran a groundbreaking Venus exploration program amid the 20th century space race.
Venera, as the program was called, sent a series of probes toward Venus in the 1970s and '80s, with several spacecraft surviving the trip and beaming data back to Earth before ceasing operations.
Of the two Venera vehicles that were launched in 1972 , however, only one made it to Venus.
The other, a spacecraft sometimes cataloged as V-71 No. 671, did not. And that's why researchers believe the object that space traffic experts are tracking is Cosmos 482. (Beginning in the 1960s, Soviet vehicles left in Earth orbit were each given the Cosmos name and a numerical designation for tracking purposes, according to NASA.)
While a landing on dry ground is unlikely, it's not impossible. The Cosmos 482 object's trajectory shows it could hit anywhere within a broad swath of land that includes 'the whole of Africa, South America, Australia, the USA, parts of Canada, parts of Europe, and parts of Asia,' said Marco Langbroek, a lecturer and space traffic expert at Delft Technical University in the Netherlands, via email.
Sorge emphasized that if Cosmos 482 hits the ground after its final descent tonight, onlookers are advised to keep their distance. The aged spacecraft could leak dangerous fuels or pose other risks to people and property.
'Contact the authorities,' Sorge urged. 'Please don't mess with it.'
Legally speaking, the object also belongs to Russia. According to rules mapped out in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty — which remains the primary document underpinning international law on the matter — the nation that launched an object to space retains ownership and responsibility for it even if it crashes back to Earth decades after launch.
Though defunct objects in space routinely fall out of orbit, most pieces of debris disintegrate entirely during the reentry process.
But the world is in the midst of a new space race, with commercial companies such as SpaceX launching hundreds of new satellites to orbit each year. That burst in activity has raised alarms across the space traffic community, as experts are seeking to ensure that objects don't collide in space or pose a risk to humans if they make an uncontrolled descent back home.
Safety standards have drastically improved since the 20th century space race when the Soviet Venus probe was launched, noted Parker Wishik, a spokesperson for The Aerospace Corporation.
Still, incidents such as the impending impact event are a stark reminder.
'What goes up must come down,' Wishik said. 'What you put up in space today might affect us for decades to come.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
Russian nuclear submarine base hit by tsunami
Russia's far east nuclear submarine base appears to have been damaged by the tsunami that swept the country's Pacific coast on Wednesday, according to satellite imagery obtained by The Telegraph. The waves, triggered by an 8.8 magnitude earthquake, hit the Rybachiy base in Kamchatka peninsula, which houses most of the nuclear submarines in Russia's Pacific Fleet. A section of one pier has bent away from its original position, possibly indicating that it was detached from its moorings, images taken by the Umbra Space satellite on Thursday morning have revealed. It does not appear that a submarine was moored alongside at the time of impact and experts said damage to the structure alone would have little military significance. However, questions were raised about whether the tsunami caused any further harm to the base, which was thought to have been hit within 15 minutes of the earthquake. The nuclear submarines housed there, including newer Borei-class craft and Soviet-era Deltas, are the closest to the US aside from those on forward deployment. Rybachiy sits inside Avacha Bay, around 75 miles west from the earthquake's epicentre. Also in the bay are the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky naval base, and separate missile-loading and shipyard facilities. Footage recorded elsewhere on Russia's eastern coast showed waves up to five metres high swamping the shore. Heavy damage can be seen in the port of Severo-Kurilsk, around twice as far from the earthquake's epicentre as Avacha Bay. In satellite photographs taken on July 17, a submarine can be seen moored at the pier that now appears to have been damaged. In both sets of imagery, a surface ship is moored on the western side of the pier. Umbra Space uses synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites, which can penetrate the cloud cover that has prevented other systems from gaining a clear picture of the tsunami's impact on Rybachiy. Dr Sidharth Kaushal, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), said that there was no sign of any damage to the submarine fleet. 'It looks like it was a surface ship that was moored at the pier rather than a submarine, which is noteworthy,' he said. 'I'm not sure we can really ascertain more than that a pier was damaged, [which] I suspect probably won't change the tempo of activity [at the base] much at all.' The pier has been left at a 'terrible angle', said Tom Sharpe, a retired Royal Navy commander, which would make it awkward for a ship to enter or exit. There appears to be a tugboat by the tip of the twisted section, he added, which could be involved in initial repairs. 'If the base assumption is that a wave got in there and bent that jetty then yes, what else did it do?' Mr Sharpe asked. Submarines could be damaged by smacking hard into their moorings and water could enter open hatches or access points. In separate Umbra imagery shared online, two submarines can be seen still moored at their piers after the tsunami. Boats undergoing maintenance would be particularly vulnerable to powerful waves, unable to set sail and escape. Credit: east2west However, experts stressed there was no sign of damage to the craft and the piers used by nuclear submarines are designed to withstand seismic impacts. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's chief spokesman, said the 'earthquake resistance' of buildings and functioning alert system had ensured there were no casualties across Kamchatka. A retired Russian navy officer, who told the War Zone website he had not heard of any serious harm to Rybachiy, said: 'These bases were designed and built with the possibility of a nuclear attack by the enemy in mind.' The facility would have been shielded somewhat by the geography of the bay. Even minor damage to the base, however, has led some to question whether Moscow is wise to harbour so many of its Pacific Fleet assets in a single location. 'This is why having multiple bases is a good idea, because you never know when you're going to get rogered by something you haven't seen coming,' said Mr Sharpe. The Russian navy might also reconsider the construction standards of the apparently damaged pier. While the other nine at the base are built entirely out of concrete, a lengthy top section of that one appears to be a floating extension. 'It looks classically Russian,' Mr Sharpe said. 'Taped on.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Scientific American
2 days ago
- Scientific American
—Have Weathered Attacks Before and Won
Worth recalling in this anniversary year, one of Scientific American 's proudest moments came in a past era of attacks on science. The lesson—that speaking out for science is worth the criticism it brings—is surely worth recalling today. The year was 1950, and the 'red scare' was fully underway, alongside a nascent arms race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The Soviet demonstration of an atomic bomb in 1949 had galvanized calls for a bigger bomb, a hydrogen bomb, in the U.S., sparking the paranoia today best remembered for claiming the career of Manhattan Project chief J. Robert Oppenheimer. But a war on scientists not toeing the political line was in full swing then, and Scientific American was in the thick of it. On March 20, 1950, a U.S. Atomic Energy Commission agent named Alvin F. Ryan seized and burned 3,000 copies of the forthcoming April issue of Scientific American, which the commission claimed held atomic secrets. Ryan also supervised the melting of four printing plates holding a feature story in the issue, ' The Hydrogen Bomb: II,' that contained the supposedly objectionable information within one of its columns. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. 'Strict compliance with the commission's policies would mean that we could not teach physics,' said an outraged Gerard Piel, then publisher of Scientific American, in the April 1, 1950, report of the seizure on the front page of the New York Times. He threatened to take further censorship to the Supreme Court. Piel had relaunched Scientific American in 1948, with a focus on bringing the views of scientists like Bethe, thoughtfully edited, to the public. This scientists-as-writers approach came about by happenstance, Scientific American editor Gary Stix found while researching the history of the magazine. Piel found it was cheaper to pay scientists to write copy and then rewrite it, rather than hire magazine writers. The approach proved so successful, with the public then clamoring to hear the news straight from scientists, that the magazine had 100,000 readers and 133 pages of advertising by 1950. Berthe's article was just one of four published by the magazine on the H-bomb, which President Harry Truman had decided to pursue in January of 1950. Much debate, among scientists and the public, followed over whether such a weapon would make the U.S. safer or endanger humanity. The Nobel Prize–winning discoverer of how fusion in stars baked elements, Bethe, was in the latter camp. His article went through the physics of fusion and pled to 'save humanity from this ultimate disaster' by reconsidering the president's H-bomb decision, or at least pledging no first use of the weapons in warfare, a commitment still unmade, and widely debated in nuclear circles. 'Piel had made his publication an important forum for critical analysis of U.S. science policy during the coldest years of the cold war,' in exposing the Atomic Energy Commission's attack on press freedom, wrote history professor Alfred W. McCoy. To satisfy the AEC, Bethe made four 'ritual' cuts to the final version of the article and published it. Even so, U.S. security officials continued to pressure scientists and the press over the course of the red scare. The FBI searched Bethe's luggage after a European trip in 1951. ' Scientific American runs to the sort of stuff which the Soviets would like to see in a popular science journal,' claimed an AEC memorandum that same year. The U.S. tested its first H-bomb a year later, and stripped Oppenheimer of his security clearance, in 1954, in a power play now seen as a political vendetta. The arms race played out through the 1960s, building stockpiles of tens of thousands of nuclear missiles on both sides until its folly, and frightening close brushes with Armageddon, lowered those numbers in an era of détente, the sort of world that Bethe had called for in his article. All the while, Scientific American stood for the importance of scientists speaking out, and providing the public, even amid the unhinged persecution of the red scare, choices for a better world. Throughout science, the lesson stood, among eminent voices ranging from Linus Pauling to Carl Sagan. Scientists led calls for test ban treaties and disarmament; they warned of nuclear winter throughout the cold war. In the magazine, former CIA official Herbert Scoville Jr. warned of the danger of a new generation of U.S. submarines as 'first-strike' weapons, that familiar warning, in 1972. Bethe himself kept speaking out, against the Reagan administration's 'Star Wars' missile defense plan as unworkable, costly and destabilizing in the 1980s (views heard today on its current 'Golden Dome' revival). Accepting the Einstein Peace Prize in 1992, he acknowledged that while scientists had not ended the cold war, they had succeeded in 'planting the idea there was an alternative to the arms race.' Their example, and that idea, remains as important as ever, especially with U.S. science facing severe cuts, and nuclear weapons a renewed flashpoint in geopolitics. Piel's statement released after the 1950 seizure—'there is a very large body of technical information in the public domain which is essential to adequate public participation in the development of national policy and on which the American people are entitled to be informed'—still stands true today at this magazine. We will continue to speak out and provide scientists with a place to make their voices heard.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
FIRST ON CNN: Fighting early-stage Alzheimer's with intensive lifestyle changes works, study finds
As her memory faded from Alzheimer's disease in her late 50s, Tammy Maida began to lose track of her life. Car keys, eyeglasses and her purse disappeared multiple times a day. Key characters in novels she was reading were forgotten. Groceries were left in the garage. Keeping the books for the family's businesses became impossible. 'I honestly thought I was losing my mind, and the fear of losing my mind was frightening,' Maida told CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in the 2024 CNN documentary 'The Last Alzheimer's Patient.' After 20 weeks in a randomized clinical trial designed to drastically change her diet, exercise, stress levels and social interactions, Maida's cognition improved. She was able to read and recall novels and correctly balance spreadsheets again. A blood test even found levels of amyloid, a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease, were retreating in her brain, according to the study published in June 2024. 'I'm coming back. It was really good — like I was prior to the disease being diagnosed,' Maida, now 68, told a researcher on the study. 'An older but better version of me.' Maida's cognition showed additional improvement, however, after she completed a total of 40 weeks of intensive lifestyle changes, said principal investigator Dr. Dean Ornish, a clinical professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, and creator of the Ornish diet and lifestyle medicine program. Ornish gave a study update on Tuesday at the 2025 Alzheimer's Association International Conference in Toronto. While not everyone in the 26-person interventional group benefited, 46% showed improvement in three of four standardized tests, he said, including one that measures changes in memory, judgment and problem-solving as well as the ability to function at home, practice hobbies and practice personal hygiene. 'An additional 37.5% of people showed no decline in cognition during those 40 weeks,' Ornish said. 'Thus, over 83% of patients improved or maintained their cognition during the five-month program.' The new findings mirrored those of other studies on lifestyle interventions, he said, including the recent US POINTER study, the largest clinical trial in the United States to test moderate lifestyle interventions over two years in people who are at risk but do not yet have Alzheimer's disease. 'Our study complements these findings by showing, for the first time, that more intensive lifestyle changes may often stop or even begin to reverse the decline in cognition in many of those who already have Alzheimer's disease, and these improvements often continue over a longer period of time,' Ornish told CNN. And unlike available medications for Alzheimer's, he added, lifestyle changes have no side effects, such as bleeding and swelling in the brain that may occur with the newest class of drugs. EmblemHealth, a New York-based insurance company, announced Tuesday that it will be the first health insurer to cover the Ornish lifestyle medicine program for patients who have early-stage Alzheimer's disease. 'Eat well, move more, stress less and love more' The lifestyle intervention Ornish created — which he calls 'eat well, move more, stress less and love more' — has been tested before. In 1990, Ornish showed for the first time in a randomized clinical trial that coronary artery disease could often be reversed with nothing more than diet, exercise, stress reduction and social support. The US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or CMS, declared in 2010 that Ornish's program for reversing heart disease was an 'intensive cardiac rehabilitation' and that it would be eligible for reimbursement under Medicare. Additional research has shown the same four-part program can lower blood sugars and heart disease risk in patients with diabetes, reduce prostate cancer cell growth, improve depression and even lengthen telomeres, the protective caps of chromosomes that are worn away by aging. During the Ornish intervention, one group of people consumed a strict vegan diet, did daily aerobic exercise, practiced stress reduction and engaged in online support groups. The rest of the participants were in a control group and were asked to not make any changes in their daily habits. Therapists led hour-long group sessions three times a week in which participants were encouraged to share their feelings and ask for support. Meditation, deep breathing, yoga and other ways to reduce stress took up another hour every day. The program also encouraged participants to prioritize good-quality sleep. Supplements were provided to everyone in the intervention group, including a daily multivitamin, omega-3 fatty acids with curcumin, coenzyme Q10, vitamin C and B12, magnesium, a probiotic, and Lion's mane mushroom. In addition to online strength training led by a physical trainer, people in the intervention attended hour-long video classes on vegan nutrition hosted by a dietitian. Then, to ensure a vegan diet was followed, all meals and snacks for both participants and their partners were delivered to their homes. Complex carbs found in whole grains, vegetables, fruits, tofu, nuts and seeds made up most of the diet. Sugar, alcohol and refined carbs found in processed and ultraprocessed foods were taboo. While calories were unrestricted, protein and total fat made up only some 18% of the daily caloric intake — far less than the typical protein intake by the average American, Ornish said. Working harder pays off People in the intervention group who put the most effort into changing their lifestyle have the most improvement in their cognition, said Ornish, founder and president of the nonprofit Preventive Medicine Research Institute and coauthor of 'Undo It! How Simple Lifestyle Changes Can Reverse Most Chronic Diseases.' 'There was a statistically significant dose-response relationship between the degree of adherence to our lifestyle changes and the degree of improvement we saw on measures of cognition,' Ornish said. The 25 people in the study's original 20-week control group — who did not receive the intervention — had shown further cognitive decline during the program. They were later allowed to join the intervention for 40 weeks and significantly improved their cognitive scores during that time, Ornish said. It all makes sense, said co-senior study author Rudy Tanzi, an Alzheimer's researcher and professor of neurology at Harvard Medical School in Boston. 'If you picture a brain full of damage as a sink full of water, when you just turn off the tap, it takes a long time for that sink to slowly drain, right?' Tanzi told CNN in 2024. 'If you want the amyloid to go down in 20 weeks, as we found on one blood test, you're going to need a Roto-Rooter.' Additional blood testing may offer insights In the 2024 study, a blood test called plasma Aβ42/40 showed a significant improvement in the original intervention group. Aβ42/40 measures the level of amyloid in the blood, a key symptom of Alzheimer's. Tests that measure amyloid in different ways, however, did not show improvement, Dr. Suzanne Schindler, an associate professor of neurology at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis who specializes in blood biomarkers told CNN at the time. There was no significant change in a test for amyloid called p-tau 181, considered to be a superior measure of Alzheimer's risk, said Schindler, who was not involved in the study. Nor was there any change in glial fibrillary acidic protein, or GFAP, another blood biomarker that seems to correlate reasonably well with Alzheimer's disease. 'If one of these markers improves, you typically see all of them improve, so the fact they did not makes me wonder whether this effect is real,' Schindler said. 'If they were to repeat the study with a much larger population for a longer period of time, perhaps more change could be seen.' Over the complete 40-week program, however, a number of people in the intervention group did continue to improve their Aβ42/40 scores, according to the study update. 'Changes in amyloid — as measured as the plasma Aβ42/40 ratio — occur before changes in tau markers such as p-tau 218, so this is not surprising after only 40 weeks,' Ornish said. For Ornish, who has watched members of his family die from Alzheimer's disease, the study's results are important for one key reason — hope. 'So often when people get a diagnosis of dementia or Alzheimer's, they are told by their doctors that there is no future, 'It's only going to get worse, get your affairs in order.' That's horrible news and is almost self-fulfilling,' Ornish said. 'Our new findings empower patients who have early-stage Alzheimer's disease with the knowledge that if they make and maintain these intensive lifestyle changes, there is a reasonably good chance that they may slow the progression of the disease and often even improve it,' he said. 'Our study needs to be replicated with larger, more diverse groups of patients to make it more generalizable,' Ornish said. 'But the findings we reported today are giving many people new hope and new choices — and the only side effects are good ones.' Get inspired by a weekly roundup on living well, made simple. Sign up for CNN's Life, But Better newsletter for information and tools designed to improve your well-being.
