logo
Sterling advances against dollar, euro ahead of BoE policy announcement

Sterling advances against dollar, euro ahead of BoE policy announcement

Zawyaa day ago
The British pound climbed against the dollar on Monday, adding to gains from Friday as the U.S. currency dropped following a weak U.S. jobs report, with the focus on the Bank of England's impending policy announcement later this week.
The pound was last at $1.3306 against the dollar, up 0.2% after a 0.6% gain on Friday.
But the currency slid 3.8% last month, its biggest monthly drop since September 2022, on concerns over Britain's fiscal position and softening economic data.
"Narratives are often hard to shake and the mood music around GBP has been glum for some time," said Kamal Sharma, senior FX strategist at Bank of America.
The pound was last up 0.3% at 87 pence per euro. It fell to 87.69 pence last week, its weakest against the single currency since May 2023.
Sharma believes the pound will strengthen into year-end against the euro as he expects euro area data to soften, prompting more rate cuts from the European Central Bank.
Danske Bank FX strategist Mohamad Al-Saraf held a more bearish view on the pound, expecting the currency to fall to 89 pence per euro in 12 months.
"We think the British economy has shown more pronounced signs of weakness, particularly the labour market," Al-Saraf said.
"The relative growth outlook between the UK and the euro area are becoming pound negative."
Attention was turning to the BoE policy announcement on Thursday, with markets pricing in around a 90% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. Traders are pricing in 50 basis points of easing by year-end.
With a rate cut almost fully priced, focus for currency traders will be on the outlook for interest rates and whether the central bank could slow the pace at which it shrinks its holdings of government bonds, known as quantitative tightening.
"There could be a positive surprise for sterling were the BoE to announce that a lower pace of quantitative tightening ... was accompanied by fewer sales of longer-dated Gilts," said ING head of research Chris Turner.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Gold falls from two-week highs as dollar ticks up
Gold falls from two-week highs as dollar ticks up

Zawya

timean hour ago

  • Zawya

Gold falls from two-week highs as dollar ticks up

Gold slipped from a near two-week high on Tuesday as the dollar firmed, though losses were capped by bolstered bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $3,354.56 per ounce, by 1220 GMT. Bullion hit its highest since July 24 on Monday at $3,385.29. U.S. gold futures also fell 0.5% to $3,408.20. The dollar index rose 0.2% from a one-week low hit earlier in the session, reducing gold's appeal to other currency holders. Data on Friday showed employment growth in the U.S. slowed more than anticipated in July, with payroll revisions for May and June slashing a hefty 258,000 jobs from previous tallies. The CME FedWatch tool now puts the odds of a September cut at nearly 88%, up from 63% a week earlier, with markets largely pricing in at least two quarter-point reductions this year. "What gold needs to move higher from here is probably (another) weaker U.S. economic data... The other item gold is watching is who U.S. President Trump names as next Fed Governor, potentially the successor of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Trump's dismissal of the labour statistics chief following the weak payrolls report, coupled with news that he will appoint a new Fed governor, added to uncertainty. Trump also threatened to lift tariffs on Indian goods beyond last month's 25% hike, citing India's continued purchases of Russian oil. Gold, long seen as a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. "I still do not see traders pushing up aggressively above the $3,450 level unless we have a very clear catalyst," OANDA senior market analyst, Kelvin Wong, said. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.2% to $37.45 per ounce, platinum lost 1.1% to $1,314.50 and palladium shed 1.8% to $1,184.94. South Africa-based miner Sibanye-Stillwater has asked the United States to consider imposing a tariff on Russian palladium imports to support the long-term viability of U.S. supplies. (Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; additional reporting by Sarah Qureshi; Editing by Susan Fenton and Ed Osmond)

Dollar rises versus euro and yen before US economic data
Dollar rises versus euro and yen before US economic data

Zawya

time3 hours ago

  • Zawya

Dollar rises versus euro and yen before US economic data

The dollar edged up against the euro and the yen, but remained within striking distance of Friday's lows, after weak U.S. jobs data boosted bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts and triggered a sharp selloff in the greenback. Investors are awaiting services data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), which should show a mild improvement supporting the greenback. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver three consecutive 25 basis-point rate cuts starting in September, with a 50 basis-point move possible if the next jobs report shows a further rise in unemployment. It also sees the European Central Bank as having concluded its easing cycle. Economists raised their growth forecasts for the euro area and Japan following relatively benign trade agreements, while arguing that Friday's U.S. jobs report confirmed the economy is hovering near stall speed. Meanwhile the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday, and the resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, could harden the views of the FOMC to ensure its independence is protected, analysts said, recalling that the new appointee will be just one vote on the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The euro was last down 0.25% at $1.1544, after hitting on Friday $1.15855. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six counterparts, was up 0.30% at 98.864, after touching a one-week low earlier in the session at 98.609. "Traders likely inferred that the (U.S. jobs) report gave President Donald Trump even more justification to 'fire' Jay Powell," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates strategist at Macquarie Group. "Alternatively, it gave Trump even more support for giving the Chairmanship to someone that would be more 'structurally' dovish," he added, arguing that Friday's employment report shifted the outlook for where the Fed Funds rate target will be one year from now. Sterling edged higher against the dollar, as traders expect the Bank of England to maintain its rate guidance at this week's policy meeting. It was last up 0.05% at $1.3291. RATE CUTS Money markets are now pricing in a 92% chance of the Fed cutting rates in its next meeting in September, compared with 63% a week earlier. They also indicate 130 bps of rate cuts by October 2026, 30 bps more than the levels seen on Friday before U.S. jobs data. The Japanese yen was down 0.34% at 147.6 per dollar after minutes of its June policy meeting showed a few Bank of Japan board members said the central bank would consider resuming interest rate increases if trade frictions de-escalate. "The pressure to hike (rates) could also come from a wish to help support and stabilise the Japanese government bonds (JGB) market," said Derek Halpenny, head of research global markets at MUFG, mentioning a weak outcome of a JGBs auction. "But JGB market instability remains a downside risk for the yen," he added. The focus remains on tariff uncertainties, after the latest duties imposed on imports from scores of countries last week by Trump stoked worries about the health of the global economy. The 15% tariff that European Union goods face when entering the U.s. is all-inclusive, a senior EU official said on Tuesday. The Swiss franc extended losses for a second day, weakening 0.25% to 0.8103 per dollar after dropping 0.5% in the previous session. However it was still above the levels seen before Friday's economic figures, at around 0.8128. Switzerland is looking to make a "more attractive offer" in trade talks with Washington, to avert a 39% U.S. import tariff on Swiss goods that threatens its export-driven economy.

Gold hovers near two‑week high on rising Fed rate cut bets
Gold hovers near two‑week high on rising Fed rate cut bets

Zawya

time3 hours ago

  • Zawya

Gold hovers near two‑week high on rising Fed rate cut bets

Gold slipped on Tuesday due to an uptick in the dollar, though prices remained near a two-week high on growing expectations of a U.S. rate cut in September. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,365.45 per ounce, by 0919 GMT. Bullion hit its highest since July 24 on Monday at $3,385.29. U.S. gold futures were unchanged at $3,423.20. The dollar index rose 0.2% from a one-week low hit earlier in the session, reducing gold's appeal to other currency holders. U.S. data on Friday showed employment growth in the United States slowed more than anticipated in July, with payroll revisions for May and June slashing a hefty 258,000 jobs from previous tallies. The CME FedWatch tool now puts the odds of a September cut at nearly 88%, up from 63% a week earlier, with markets largely pricing in at least two quarter-point reductions this year. "What gold needs to move higher from here is probably (another) weaker U.S. economic data... The other item gold is watching is who U.S. President Trump names as next Fed Governor, potentially the successor of Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Trump's dismissal of the labour statistics chief following the weak payrolls report, coupled with news that he will appoint a new Fed governor, added to uncertainty. Trump also threatened to lift tariffs on Indian goods beyond last month's 25% hike, citing India's continued purchases of Russian oil. Gold, long seen as a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. "I still do not see traders pushing up aggressively above the $3,450 level unless we have a very clear catalyst," OANDA senior market analyst, Kelvin Wong, said. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.2% to $37.46 per ounce, platinum lost 1.3% to $1,312.30 and palladium shed 1.6% to $1,187.04. South Africa-based miner Sibanye-Stillwater has asked the United States to consider imposing a tariff on Russian palladium imports to support the long-term viability of U.S. supplies.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store