How climate change is 'supercharging summer storms' as Scotland battered with wild weather

Daily Record

4 days ago

Fierce and fast summer rainstorms are on the rise, and a 2C temperature rise could double their frequency, the study warns
Scotland has faced intense weather patterns over the last eight months, with a total of five named storms having battered the country since October 2024, including a powerful and record-breaking cyclone which hit the UK in January.
Storms Ashley, Bert, Conall and Darragh have all made landfall in recent times, but the most notable was Storm Éowyn - the UK's most powerful windstorm for a decade, bringing red warnings, severe impacts and tragic deaths.
But what is behind this string of wild weather? Well, climate change seems the most obvious reason. But the Met Office said in the recent climate that "there is no evidence of positive or negative trends in windstorm number or intensity."
Trends in windstorm numbers are difficult to detect due to how these naturally vary year-to-year and decade-to-decade, the weather agency added.
However, a new study focusing on the Alpine regions suggests otherwise. Intense, short-lived summer downpours are expected to become both more frequent and more intense as the climate warms, according to scientists from the University of Lausanne (UNIL) and the University of Padova.
Although the study, published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, is specific to Alpine regions, the repercussions could be felt or similar weather events may occur in other parts of Europe, including the UK.
Scientists demonstrated that an average temperature rise of 2C could double the frequency of short-lived summer rainstorms in the Alpine region. With such warming, an intense storm currently expected every 50 years could occur every 25 years in the future.
"An increase of 1C is not hypothetical - it is likely to occur in the coming decades," Francesco Marra, one of the main authors, pointed out.
"We are already witnessing a tendency for summer storms to intensify, and this trend is only expected to worsen in the years ahead."
In June 2018, the city of Lausanne in Switzerland experienced an extreme and short-lived rainfall episode, with 41 millimetres of precipitation falling in just 10 minutes.
Large parts of the city were flooded, resulting in estimated damage of 32 million Swiss Francs. These short, extreme events, often causing severe damage to property and posing risks to lives, are still very rare in Switzerland today.
However, with the rise in temperatures caused by global warming, they are likely to become more frequent in the future, particularly over the Alpine mountains and their surroundings, said the researchers.
Warm air retains more moisture (around 7% more per degree) and intensifies thunderstorm activity. As the Alpine region is warming faster than the global average, it is particularly hard hit. It is therefore urgent to assess the impact of global warming in these regions.
To obtain these results, the researchers examined data from almost 300 weather stations in the European Alps, spread across Switzerland, Germany, Austria, France, and Italy.
They focused on record-breaking rainfall events (lasting from 10 minutes to an hour) between 1991 and 2020, as well as temperatures associated with these storms.
"Our results show that an average temperature rise of 1C would already be highly problematic," Nadav Peleg, first author of the study, warned.
"The sudden and massive arrival of large volumes of water prevents the soil from absorbing the excess. This can trigger flash floods and debris flows, leading to infrastructure damage and, in some cases, casualties."
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Peleg said it is "crucial" to understand how these events may evolve with climate change, adding: "This means planning appropriate adaptation strategies like improving urban drainage infrastructure where necessary."
It comes as a 358-mile storm is set to sweep over Scotland from the Atlantic in the coming days. Rain is forecasted for Glasgow every day for the next week.
And while Edinburgh and Aberdeen won't be as sodden, there's no sign of a return to the balmy highs of 25C experienced last Friday and Saturday. The monster storm is predicted to usher in next month on a wet note, following on from June's dreary start.
And it comes off the back of a weekend of extremes, where the hottest days of the year in Scotland were followed with thunderstorms, lightning blasts, and heavy downpours within mere hours.
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