Stocks that outperform and underperform following a 15% oil spike, according to history

CNBC

18-06-2025

After the recent spike in oil, investors should dump or bet against shares of automakers and airlines, while buying some technology stocks over the next month, if history is any guide. Crude oil futures have jumped more than 19.5% over the past month as attacks between Israel and Iran have intensified , causing investors to worry about the supply outlook from the Middle East — particularly because Iran is the third-largest producer among the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC.) We found that this run-up in oil prices opens up opportunities for investors. Using the Reflexivity AI tool, CNBC PRO looked at previous times when oil spiked by more than 15% in one month and which stocks in the S & P 500 performed best in the following month. Reflexivity calculated the median percentage change in stocks over rolling one-month periods. We found that tech stocks make up some of the best performers, as investors likely look for s tocks resistant to the jump in oil prices and broader geopolitical concerns associated with the move. We also list several companies that make up the worst performers further down. Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices has a historical 1-month median move of about 3.2% following months that saw a significant jump in oil. The company's shares are up 5.2% year to date, but have jumped more than 9% this week after Piper Sandler analysts said they expect a comeback in AMD's graphics processing units, or GPUs, business in the fourth quarter. Monolithic Power Systems , another chip company, tends to see a significant jump of nearly 6.1% after oil prices spike — the largest move of the list. Its shares are up more than 16.5% year to date. Transportation stocks CSX and C.H. Robinson and industrial and commercial pump equipment company Xylem also made the cut. Xylem, which has seen its stock jump 8% this year, has made a 1-month median move of 3.4% following periods of oil price hikes. Shares have significant upside ahead according to JPMorgan, which last month initiated coverage of Xylem with an overweight rating and touted the company as "an industry leading water technology pure play." Worst performers The S & P 500's worst performers after months that see a 15% jump in oil prices include Target , Ford Motor and United Airlines , indicating times that consumer wallets take a hit. Ford and United Airlines saw a more than 1% median move lower. Ford shares are up roughly 5.3% this year, but sentiment around the stock remains uncertain as the company in early May suspended its 2025 financial guidance amid an expected $2.5 billion impact this year caused by the Trump administration's tariffs. Energy companies NRG Energy and EOG Resources are other companies that post declines after oil prices surge, per the screener. Energy stocks have underperformed this year amid broader declines in oil prices. Moderna losses top the list with a 1-month median loss of 3.6%, meanwhile.