The biggest losers in the bombing of Iran? The Iranian people.
Under the grip of this regime for the past 46 years, mismanagement and corruption have deepened societal cleavages. Iran's
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One of the paradoxes of governments that rely on coercion is that they are often frightened of their own people. In Iran, that fear has been amplified in the aftermath of the regime's evident vulnerability and incompetence in the face of its foremost adversaries' bombardment. The conflict has decimated the top echelons of the security services, killing as many as 14 generals. Israel has also attacked paramilitary and intelligence installations critical to the coercive apparatus of the state.
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But today, they are too traumatized to revolt. And the Islamic Republic's multilayered elite structure has already generated replacements for the cadres eliminated in the Israeli strikes.
The strikes have intensified the apprehensions of Iran's leaders toward their disillusioned citizenry. Just as in the aftermath of previous security crises, such a series of 1981 terrorist attacks against the regime or the 1988 cease-fire with Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, Tehran is responding to external threats with an internal crackdown. The regime is already engaging in mass arrests and show trials are sure to follow. The masses and public figures are enjoined to support the regime.
In the name of rooting out the internal collaborators who enabled Israel's devastating initial attacks, scores will be settled and revenge taken. Iran's repressive political atmosphere will become even more stifling. An insecure regime looking to reestablish its deterrent posture is unlikely to relent anytime soon.
For the past two decades, the United States has imposed crippling sanctions on Iran primarily in the name of arms control. The sanctions have debilitated Iran's economy, precipitating inflation, currency crisis, and unemployment. Throughout the tortuous path of talks with Iran, Washington and its international partners sought to utilize the sanctions as a tool to persuade Iran to concede core aspects of its nuclear program. In practice, the proposition of sanctions relief has always proven less compelling in advancing diplomatic solutions, especially for a target with as much experience with this tool as Tehran. Its leaders are all too aware that the US measures that severed Iran's ties to the international financial system have a peculiar afterlife, as jittery banks and businesses tend to steer clear long after their expiration.
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Now, the relative success of the strikes on Iran have upended the central logic of international diplomacy around the Iranian nuclear challenge. The world now has another path to disarming Tehran — Israeli and American military action. The strategy of restraining Iran's nuclear advances by offering economic incentives in exchange for compliance with its arms control obligations will now be eclipsed by a more potent tool — additional attacks. A regime humiliated and antagonized by bombardment is likely to double down on reestablishing deterrence through its familiar tools of terror and covert nuclear investments.
Meanwhile, the cost of sanctions will continue to be borne by ordinary Iranians. Iran's economy will continue to be hollowed out, the aspirations of another generation crushed, and a once proud and prosperous nation sinking
further into impoverishment and isolation.
Today, the Iranian people are caught between cruel rulers and an indifferent international community. The Islamic Republic endures and will continue to wage its struggle against the West. Anti-Americanism is core to the regime's identity. As Iranian leaders seek to reconstitute the nuclear program covertly, it's likely that new coercive measures will be deployed against Iran as Western spymasters will likely catch the regime red-handed. Military force is now the instrument of arms control.
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In the midst of all this stand the Iranian people, abused and alone. Peace and security in the Middle East will not be possible until they have a meaningful say in their nation's destiny.
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American Military News
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US strikes on Iran may strengthen North Korea's nuclear resolve, experts warn
This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. The U.S. air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities will have reinforced North Korea's perception that possessing nuclear weapons is essential for its survival and may even prompt Pyongyang to accelerate the development of its nuclear capabilities, warned South Korean experts. U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday announced that the U.S. had conducted 'massive precision strikes' on three Iranian nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – that has 'completely and totally obliterated' Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities. The attack on Iran's nuclear sites marks the first offensive action in Israel's war with Iran – a major escalation in tensions in the Middle East – which South Korean analysts warn will make North Korea increasingly resistant to any diplomatic efforts or talks aimed at convincing Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program. 'North Korea must have thought it was a good idea to have nuclear weapons after seeing the U.S. airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities,' Jeong Seong-jang, deputy director of the Sejong Institute, told Radio Free Asia on Monday. In a statement Monday, a spokesperson for the North Korean Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities, saying it 'violated the U.N. Charter and international law, which have as their basic principles respect for sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs,' North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency reported. Despite calls by the U.S. and its allies for denuclearization, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has pushed for his country to bolster its nuclear capabilities to defend itself, warning earlier this year that 'confrontation with the most vicious hostile countries is inevitable.' While the 'hostile countries' were not named, North Korea regards the U.S. and its ally, South Korea, as its main enemies. In 2003, North Korea withdrew after acceding to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), shortly after the U.S. invaded Iraq. It cited concerns, at the time, that the U.S. was planning a preemptive strike against Pyongyang. 'North Korea is (likely to be) concerned that if it gives up its nuclear weapons, it will end up in a situation similar to Iran, and will not accept future proposals for denuclearization discussions.' He warned the strikes may even prompt North Korea – which conducted its first underground nuclear test in 2006 – to accelerate the development of nuclear submarines in an effort to secure so-called 'second-strike' capabilities – or the ability to launch retaliatory nuclear strikes after a preemptive one. Other South Korean experts echoed similar concerns. 'Kim Jong Un will probably order the relocation, hiding, and concealment of nuclear facilities, as well as the expansion of air defense systems,' Professor Nam Seong-wook of Sookmyung Women's University told RFA. In a social media post, Kim Dong-yeop, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, argued that the U.S. strikes would cause North Korea to further solidify its perception that 'only possession of nuclear weapons can lead to survival' and provide much-needed validation for Pyongyang to hold on to its nuclear arsenal. Since 2006, North Korea has tested nuclear devices six times and has developed missiles believed to be capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. During his first term, Trump held historic summits with Kim Jong Un, hoping to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief, but his high-level diplomacy ultimately failed to achieve a breakthrough. The North has continued to build its nuclear and missile programs. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that North Korea has assembled around 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material to produce up to 40 more warheads and is accelerating the production of further fissile material. Earlier this year, Pyongyang reiterated that it has no intention of giving up its nuclear program. North Korea would now view diplomatic engagement with the United States as 'foolish' and any future negotiations of denuclearization as futile, Kim Dong-yeop wrote in a social media post on Sunday. 'North Korea will use the Iran situation as an excuse to strengthen its criticism of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation,' he added.
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an hour ago
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Donald Trump Suffers Legal Blow: ‘Grave Constitutional Violations'
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Attacks on Muslims flood mainstream after Mamdani win
Zohran Mamdani's victory in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary triggered a wave of Islamophobic attacks — including from sitting members of Congress — that once might have disqualified the perpetrators from public office. Why it matters: Openly racist rhetoric has become normalized at the highest levels of American politics. Islamophobic and antisemitic incidents both reached an all-time high in 2024, according to the Council on American-Islamic Relations and the Anti-Defamation League, respectively. The mainstreaming of Islamophobic rhetoric in political discourse comes a decade after President Trump called for "a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States" as part of his 2016 campaign. Driving the news: Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) urged the Justice Department to denaturalize and deport Mamdani, who was born in Uganda and became a U.S. citizen in 2018. Under federal law, denaturalization is an extreme measure typically reserved for cases involving fraud during the naturalization process. The other side: Mamdani, who would be the first Muslim mayor of New York, has spoken openly about the violent threats and hateful messages he's received throughout the campaign. He told MSNBC that he sees his victory as "an opportunity for me to introduce the fact that being Muslim is like being a member of any other faith." The big picture: The fractured media ecosystem — splintered into hyperpartisan echo chambers — has made the public shaming of racism less effective. Attacks that once would have drawn bipartisan outrage now circulate with impunity — especially on social media platforms, where hate can go viral. The baseless attempts to link Mamdani to Islamist terrorism could alarm some voters, especially amid rising antisemitism in a city that is home to the world's largest Jewish population outside of Israel. Yes, but: Some of Mamdani's loudest critics are already unpopular in New York, raising the possibility that their Islamophobic posts could backfire — and further galvanize his coalition into a history-making victory. Catch up quick: Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, defeated former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo by assembling a young, multiracial coalition in one of the nation's largest and most diverse cities. That coalition included progressive Jewish voters in Manhattan, college-educated liberals in Brooklyn's Park Slope and working-class communities in Queens. Mamdani, currently serving in the New York State Assembly, is of Indian ancestry. He was born in Uganda and moved to New York at age 7. After his victory, MAGA activists and Republican lawmakers took to social media to attack Mamdani's faith, heritage and left-wing politics. "Zohran 'little muhammad' Mamdani is an antisemitic, socialist, communist who will destroy the great City of New York. He needs to be DEPORTED," Ogles posted on X. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) posted an AI-generated image of the Statue of Liberty wearing a black burqa. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) tied Mamdani's victory to what she called America's "forgetting" of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. What they're saying: "Wow. Just wow," James Zogby, co-founder of the Arab American Institute, told Axios after reviewing the posts. Zogby said Islamophobia is becoming more brazen because "there are no repercussions." "We see the same Islamophobia from the same bigots anytime a Muslim runs for public office," said Basim Elkarra, executive director of CAIR Action, the political arm of the Council on American-Islamic Relations. "Now it's been normalized." Zoom out: Since Sept. 11, 2001, Muslim and Arab Americans have periodically been the targets of racist and Islamophobic political campaigns. In 2005, then Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) suggested the U.S. could "take out" Islamic holy sites if attacked by radical Muslim terrorists. In 2010, the proposed Park51 Islamic community center in Lower Manhattan — branded the " Ground Zero Mosque" by activist Pamela Geller, founder of Stop the Islamization of America — became a national campaign flashpoint. Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rashida Tlaib (R-Mich.), who became the first two Muslim women elected to Congress in 2018, have faced years of Islamophobic attacks from Republicans and conservative media. State of play: Muslim Americans have built broader, multiethnic coalitions and political alliances in recent years. "I don't think [Islamophobia] is going to fly this time," Zogby said. Elkarra echoed that view, saying Mamdani's popularity could help him withstand the wave of attacks he's likely to face. There are currently an estimated 3 to 4 million Muslim Americans in the U.S. Between the lines: Days before the primary, Mamdani became embroiled in controversy for declining to condemn the phrase "globalize the intifada" during a podcast with The Bulwark. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories, said the phrase represented to him "a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights." The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) responded by urging all New York City candidates — without naming Mamdani — to "disassociate themselves from and avoid using language that plays into antisemitic tropes." Calls to "globalize the intifada," the ADL said, invoke a decades-old history of attacks on the Jewish people and amount to "an act of incitement that encourages violence against Jews." The bottom line: Mamdani has condemned antisemitism and promised to be a mayor for all New Yorkers — one who will be laser-focused on the city's affordability crisis.
