Brazil's markets face testing time after Trump tariff blow
Currency volatility gauges were at their highest since the back end of April's 'Liberation Day' panic, after the real slumped as much as 2.8% on Wednesday in reaction to what Deutsche Bank described as an escalation of tensions.
U.S.-listed shares of Brazilian firms and banks sank in premarket trading, with Itau Unibanco losing 2.7%, Banco Santander down 2.4% and state oil firm Petrobras down nearly 1%.
Bond traders were also bracing for the local market to reopen. Brazil's bonds have been a strong performer in emerging markets this year, with international dollar-denominated bonds returning nearly 8% and local real ones a whopping 20%.
MSCI's dollar-denominated Brazil stock index is up nearly 25%, too, helped by the year's 13% surge in the real.
Graham Stock at RBC BlueBay Asset Management said Trump's reasoning for the 50% tariff level had centred on his grievances around a court case against right-wing former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, as well as legal moves against U.S. social media firms.
"The economic implications are nevertheless fairly modest," Stock said, as just over 10% of Brazil's exports go to the U.S., and were worth only around 1% of the former's GDP.
"The risk is that President Lula seeks to exploit his defiance of U.S. interference as a badge of honour in the run-up to the October 2026 elections, in which case de-escalation becomes less likely," he said.
Wednesday's decision by Trump followed a threat on Monday to impose an additional 10% tariff on the BRICS group of developing nations - of which Brazil is the 'B' - which he called "anti-American."
The tariffs on Brazil could have a significant impact on food prices in the United States.
Around a third of the coffee consumed in the U.S., the world's largest drinker of the beverage, comes from Brazil and more than half of all the orange juice sold in the U.S. also comes from the South American agricultural powerhouse.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
EU chief von der Leyen heads to Scotland for trade talks with Trump
By Andrew Gray and Andrea Shalal BRUSSELS/EDINBURGH (Reuters) -EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen headed to Scotland on Saturday ahead of a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday afternoon, commission spokespeople said, as EU officials said the two sides were nearing a trade agreement. Trump, in Scotland for a few days of golfing and bilateral meetings, told reporters upon his arrival on Friday evening that he was looking forward to meeting with von der Leyen, calling her a "highly respected" leader. He repeated his view that there was a 50-50 chance that the U.S. and the 27-member European Union could reach a framework trade pact, adding that Brussels wanted to "make a deal very badly". If it happened, he said it would be the biggest trade agreement reached yet by his administration, surpassing the $550 billion accord agreed with Japan earlier this week. The White House has released no details about the planned meeting or the terms of the emerging agreement. The European Commission on Thursday said a negotiated trade solution with the United States was within reach, even as EU members voted to approve counter-tariffs on 93 billion euros ($109 billion) of U.S. goods in case the talks collapse. To get a deal, Trump said the EU would have to "buy down" that tariff rate, although he gave no specifics. EU diplomats say a possible deal between Washington and Brussels would likely include a broad 15% tariff on EU goods imported into the U.S., mirroring the U.S.-Japan deal, along with a 50% tariff on European steel and aluminum. The broad tariff rate would be half the 30% duties that Trump has threatened to slap on EU goods from August 1. It remains unclear if Washington will agree to exempt the EU from sectoral tariffs on automobiles, pharmaceuticals and other goods that have already been announced or are pending. Combining goods, services and investment, the EU and the United States are each other's largest trading partners by far. The American Chamber of Commerce in Brussels warned in March that any conflict jeopardized $9.5 trillion of business in the world's most important commercial relationship. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump Is Days Away From Securing His Questionable Air Force One Jet From Qatar
President Donald Trump is days away from getting a $400 million 'gift' from a foreign nation. The U.S. government is expected to finalize an agreement with Qatar next week to receive a Boeing 747 aircraft to be used as Air Force One, The Washington Post reported Friday. A July 7 communication reviewed by The Post and signed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense Affairs Saoud bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, confirms that Qatar will give the 'donation' to the Department of Defense. The deal, months in the making, raises legal, ethical and national security concerns. While the U.S. Constitution forbids anyone holding public office from accepting gifts from foreign governments without approval from Congress, Republicans have largely shrugged off the deal. 'Can't beat free,' Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) told reporters when asked about the offer in May. Trump, who has referred to the jet as a 'palace in the sky,' predictably feels the same way. 'Why wouldn't I accept a free gift?' Trump asked Fox News' Sean Hannity in May while aboard the current Air Force One. The ethical ramifications are so apparent that even the document reviewed by The Post appears to take extra effort to explicitly state that this isn't a bribe. 'Nothing in this [memorandum of understanding] is, or shall be interpreted or construed as, an offer, promise or acceptance of any form of bribery, undue influence, or corrupt practice,' the document reportedly said. The jet would become the new presidential plane until the end of Trump's term before being turned over to Trump's presidential library foundation. However, even before it can be used, the U.S. Air Force will likely spend hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayer money on renovating the plane — a process that could take years. Trump has made clear he'll accept 'gifts' from any nation willing to give them. At a White House meeting in May, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa jokingly told Trump he was 'sorry I don't have a plane to give you.' 'I wish you did,' Trump responded. 'I'd take it. If your country offered the United States Air Force a plane, I would take it.'
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
The Democratic Party's Brand Is Cooked
Voters have increasingly little faith in the Democrats, a new Wall Street Journal poll found, with the party reaching its lowest favorability rating in more than three decades. Voters overwhelmingly believe that Republicans are better able to handle key issues in Congress than Democrats. The survey found that the majority of voters, 63 percent, have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. Only 33 percent hold a favorable view. This is the most unpopular that Democrats have been according to Journal polls dating back to 1990. As President Donald Trump enacts an increasingly authoritarian agenda and provides little economic benefit to the average American, Democrats are hopeful anti-Trump backlash will give them a strong showing in the 2026 midterm election. While slightly more people expect to vote for Democrats next year than Republicans, according to the Journal poll, Democrats' overall favorability has only dropped since Trump took office. 'The Democratic brand is so bad that they don't have the credibility to be a critic of Trump or the Republican Party,' John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who worked on the survey, told the Journal. 'Until they reconnect with real voters and working people on who they're for and what their economic message is, they're going to have problems.' Anzalone's firm, which consulted for both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaigns, worked on the survey with Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio. According to the survey, voters think Republicans in Congress are more capable at handling the economy, inflation and rising prices, tariffs, immigration, 'illegal' immigration, the Russia-Ukraine war, and foreign policy. On the topic of 'illegal' immigration, 48 percent have their faith in Republicans and 24 percent choose Democrats. Democrats scored higher on health care and vaccine policy. Both parties tied at 37 percent on the issue of looking out for middle class families. 'As much as I fully believe that Democrats are not doomed for all eternity, I also believe that many Democrats aren't quite grappling with the serious credibility problems the party still faces,' Democratic operative Tré Easton posted on X. 'The podcasts and everything are real cute, but we've got work to do.' Democrats also scored low in a Quinnipiac poll released earlier this month. In that survey, approval of congressional Democrats reached a new low of 19 percent, with 72 percent of voters saying they disapproved. 'This is a record low since March 2009 when the Quinnipiac University Poll first began asking this question of registered voters,' the university wrote. The Quinnippiac poll found that even registered Democrats disapproved of the party: Thirty-nine percent approved of how Democrats in Congress were handling their jobs, while 52 percent disapproved. Among registered Republicans, 77 percent approved of how Republicans are operating in Congress. In the findings from the Journal, voters are mixed on Trump. About half, or 55 percent, of voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction. This is down from 70 percent in January, meaning voters have become more optimistic since Trump took office, yet Trump is not wildly popular. He has a favorability rating of 45 percent, and an unfavorability rating of 52 percent. A total of 46 percent approve of what Trump is doing as president, and 52 percent disapprove. Fifty-three percent disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, while 44 percent approve. On the issues of inflation, tariffs, immigration, looking out for middle class families, health care, vaccine policy, foreign policy, and the Russia-Ukraine war, voters disapprove of the job Trump is doing. On the topic of 'illegal' immigration, though, 51 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove. The Republican Party is not wildly popular either, though, with 54 percent of voters having an unfavorable view, compared to the 43 percent who have a favorable view. More from Rolling Stone Trump Claims Someone May Have Forged His Signature on Birthday Letter to Epstein I Worked With Stephen Colbert. Here's Why His Cancellation Should Scare You Yes, America Is an Oligarchy Best of Rolling Stone The Useful Idiots New Guide to the Most Stoned Moments of the 2020 Presidential Campaign Anatomy of a Fake News Scandal The Radical Crusade of Mike Pence
